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See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Try and fail,but don’t fail to try.” – John Quincy Adams
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 hit another record high yesterday as certain speculative areas of the market continued to surge. This morning, though, bulls are taking a break as the latest round of tariff announcements from the President set the stage for a negative end to the week. The latest announcement causing the damage is a 35% tariff announcement on Canadian imports in what the President says is a response to the country allowing fentanyl to cross the border into our country. He then added that the 35% levy will go even higher is Canada retaliates. More broadly, President Trump also said he was planning blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on any countries he hasn’t already sent letters to.
Futures are negative in response with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indicated to open down 0.5% at the open. Treasury yields are also higher, but the 10-year yield remains below 4.4%. Crude oil and gold are both up 1%, but the gains in other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium are even larger at 3%+. The biggest moves to the upside are in the crypto space as Bitcoin is surging close to 4% at a record high of just under $118K while Ethereum is trading just under $3,000 with a gain of 6%.
Like the declines in US futures, Asian markets were mostly lower last night on concerns related to the latest Trump Tariff announcements. Those losses also overflowed into Europe as the STOXX 600 faces a decline of nearly 1% to close out the week.
In terms of what is leading the market, mega-caps remain in charge. The chart below shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 equal-weight (RSP) vs market cap weight (SPY) indices. When the line rises, it indicates outperformance of the equal-weight index, while a falling line indicates that the market-cap-weighted index is outperforming. At this time last year, RSP was in the middle of a short-term burst of massive outperformance, but the gains were fleeting, and by the end of the year, RSP had given up all of its outperformance relative to SPY. In the first quarter of this year, RSP outperformed again, but just like the fourth quarter of last year, the second quarter of this year saw RSP once again give up all of its outperformance. At one point, RSP will take the lead and keep it for a while, but for now, SPY keeps retaking the lead.
Looking ahead, depending on your time horizon, the calendar is either a good friend or an adversary. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median performance in the week following the close today has been a gain of 1.32% and ranks in the 93rd percentile of all one-week periods throughout the year. Over the next three months, though, the S&P 500’s median gain of 0.64% ranks in just the 15th percentile as the months of September and October become a larger part of the three-month view.
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If you don’t fail sometimes, you are not being ambitious enough.” – Sundar Pichai
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After several days with little in the way of economic or earnings data, this morning we’ll get reports on jobless claims, and we’ve already seen a handful of earnings reports. Of the four companies reporting earnings this morning, two reported better than expected EPS, three missed sales forecasts, and two lowered guidance. Maybe we would have been better off with no data! In response to the reports, we’ve seen some large moves. Helen of Troy (HELE), which reported a reverse triple play, is down over 20% while Conagra (CAG) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) are both down over 4%. The only one of the four stocks trading higher in reaction to its report is Delta (DAL). That stock is flying over 13% in pre-market trading.
While these individual names have seen large reactions, overall, equity futures are up or down 0.05% or less, and treasury yields have barely budged. Crude oil is down less than 1% while gold, silver, copper, and platinum are all firmly higher.
Asian stocks were mixed, with Japan and India both down nearly 0.5% while China was up by a like amount. A former BoJ official made comments that there will likely be no more rate hikes until early 2026, while the Bank of Korea kept rates unchanged. In Europe, equities are moving higher as mining companies fuel a 0.6% rally in the STOXX 600 and a more than 1% rally in the FTSE 100.
Yesterday, we highlighted some of the massive moves in various metals like gold this year. This morning, we’ll shift our focus to Bitcoin, aka digital gold, which has also been performing very well. While Bitcoin’s performance this year looks like more of a sideways move, it’s still up a respectable 18% YTD and hit a record high yesterday. This morning’s price, right around $111K, leaves Bitcoin right near the resistance it has been dealing with since late last year. A breakout above $112K would complete a cup and handle formation, setting the stage for a new leg higher.
Just as bitcoin prices have been looking to break out from resistance, Bitcoin treasury company MicroStrategy (MSTR) has also been dealing with resistance right around $425 since late last year. Without getting into the valuation of the stock or the premium it trades at relative to its underlying crypto holdings, a move above $425 could set the stage for a new leg higher and a test of its post-Election highs from last year.
If Bitcoin is the ‘gold standard’ of the crypto space, Ethereum would be the silver standard, and price action has been much more subdued. While prices have rallied in recent weeks as digital tokens have gained in popularity, Ethereum remains more than 20% below its post-election highs. Prices are up over 7% in the last two days but remain below short-term resistance at the $2,800 level.
Throughout its history, Ethereum has been no stranger to large drawdowns. As shown in the chart below, since 2018, it has only been within 10% of a high on 6% of all days, and on average, it has traded in a drawdown of 53%! That means that the current 42% drawdown from its last record high in late 2021 is more modest than average! No one ever said the crypto space was an area of stability!
Earlier today in our Morning Lineup sent to clients, we noted the fact that major metals were all up sharply on the year. With copper’s surge on Tuesday, it was up an impressive 41.2% YTD, but still trailed platinum’s monster gain of 55.6%. While in any other year, the 25%+ gains in gold and silver would be impressive, but they look modest next to the gains in the other two, and the 5.85% gain for the S&P 500 almost looks pathetic.
The charts below show the YTD change in all four metals through July 8th of each year since 1990.
Again, while gold is up less than any of the other four metals this year, through yesterday’s close, the only other year with a larger YTD gain was in 2016. The only other year it was up over 20% was in 2006 (22.3%).
Platinum’s 55.6% gain is easily a record through this point in the year. In fact, it’s double the prior record of 27.8% that was reached in 2006 and 2008. The only other year that platinum gained more than 20% YTD through 7/8 was in 2000 (23.6%) and 2016 (23.4%).
Silver and copper have both experienced 20%+ YTD gains through 7/8 more than gold and platinum. Silver had a larger YTD gain last year and has now had six 20%+ YTD gains since 1990. Copper’s 41.2% gain this year ranks as the best since 2009 (53.1%) and is the seventh time that the commodity has rallied more than 20% YTD.
While all four commodities have experienced other YTD gains of 25%+, this year is the first time all four have rallied 25%+ YTD through 7/8 in the same year. The only time they ever all simultaneously rallied 20%+ YTD was in 2006, and the only other year when all four were even up 10% YTD at this point in the year was in 2008. Other years since 1990 have seen big runs in the metals, but none of them have been quite like the 25%+ across the board gains in 2025.
