May 29, 2025
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“No technology has ever had the opportunity to address a larger part of the world’s GDP than AI.” – Jensen Huang
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To see yesterday’s CBNC interview, click on the image below.
The biggest report of the earnings season has come and gone, but as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on last night’s call, “This is just the beginning.” At least that’s what NVDA bulls are hoping. Based on pre-market levels, shares of NVDA are looking at an upside gap of over 5%. That would be the stock’s biggest upside gap in reaction to earnings since last May, and as we highlighted in Tuesday’s Chart of the Day, would extend its streak of positive reactions to May reports to four.
NVDA’s current pre-market levels are at the high end of the range the stock has traded in since the DeepSeek news first hit markets in late January. If NVDA can build on these gains during the trading day, it would be notable for two reasons. First, it would indicate a breakout from the post-DeepSeek range (shaded area in the chart below). More importantly, it would help to reverse a trend where the stock has repeatedly capped rallies with intraday negative reversals (see arrows in the chart below).
This trend has also been evident on the stock’s recent earnings reaction days. Following the last three earnings reports, the stock has sold off from the open to close, including in February when it sank 11% after initially gapping up nearly 3%.
May 28, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Most ways of making big money take a long time. By the time one has made the money one is too old to enjoy it.” – Ian Fleming
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Today’s the day. The second most valuable company in the world, and the most important company when it comes to AI, reports after the close, and there will be a lot of attention on what Nvidia (NVDA) has to say when the company reports. Ahead of this afternoon’s report, it’s so quiet in the futures market, you can hear a pin drop as markets digest Tuesday’s big gains to kick off the week. The only economic report on the calendar this morning is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing report at 10 AM, while the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting will hit the wires at 2 PM Eastern. While NVDA is this afternoon’s main earnings event, we’ll also get reports from HP (HPQ) and Salesforce (CRM).
Heading into this afternoon’s report from NVDA, the stock has had a wild ride. Although it’s trading right at levels it was at a year ago, the stock has been all over the place, trading from above $140 late last spring to just above $90 early last August. From there, it rallied back to new highs and above $150, but less than two months ago, it was back below $90 amid the chaos of the Liberation Day tariffs. Then, yesterday, it closed back up near $140. For a large-cap stock to see back-and-forth fluctuations of declines over 35% followed by gains of over 60% is wild enough, but when swings like this occur in what is one of the most valuable companies in the world from a market cap perspective, it’s nuts.
May 27, 2025
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May 27, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Corrupt politicians make the other ten percent look bad.” – Henry Kissinger
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After President Trump ‘truthed’ comments last Friday morning threatening to lay 25% tariffs on iPhones imported into the US and 50% tariffs on goods imported from the EU, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq declined 1%, helping to contribute to the worst week for the S&P 500 since April. Over the weekend, President Trump dialed back on some of his threats from Friday, saying he would delay the threatened 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1st to July 9th. When futures opened for trading following the weekend break, futures rallied on the news, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on pace to gap up 1.4% to kick off the week. If you’re following along at home, we went from no threat of a 50% tariff at the close on Thursday afternoon to the threat of a 50% tariff beginning on July 9th, and the S&P 500 is up a net of roughly 0.7% relative to where it was at the close on Thursday. With that kind of logic, you can see why the President keeps dialing up the threats and walking them back!
The S&P 500’s 2.5% decline last week continued a global trend that has been in place all year between US and international stocks. While the S&P 500 fell, every other G7 equity ETF finished the week higher, adding on to what have already been big gains for the year. As shown in the snapshot below, besides Japan, every other G7 equity ETF is up by double-digit percentages YTD, even as the S&P 500 remains fractionally in the red. SPY is also the only ETF of the ones listed that didn’t finish last week at overbought levels, although that will change at the open today.
May 23, 2025
It’s been a volatile year for stocks so far, but more surprising is that gold prices, which have rallied more than 25% YTD, have been even more volatile. Year to date, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has experienced a daily move of at least 1% on 40% of all trading days compared to 37% for the S&P 500, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
The chart below shows the rolling 50-day average number of daily 1% moves in GLD over the last 20 years. The current level of 54% is modestly below the recent high of 56%, and that was the highest frequency of daily 1% moves since late 2011! The second chart shows the same calculation for SPY over the last 20 years. While the current level of 42% is hardly extreme relative to history, earlier this month it was at 52%.
In both charts, areas where the line shifts from blue to red indicate periods when both GLD and SPY had 1%+ daily moves on more than 40% of trading days in a rolling 50-day period. The only periods in the last 20 years when both ETFs simultaneously had 1%+ daily moves over 50 days were during the Financial Crisis, late 2011 after S&P downgraded the US AAA credit rating, early 2016, Covid, and now.
The chart below shows the performance of GLD over the last 20 years, and here again, the red line indicates the periods when both GLD and SPY had 1%+ daily moves at least 40% of the time over a 50-day span. For GLD, there was no consistent pattern of performance leading up to or after these periods.
For the S&P 500, however, the pattern surrounding these occurrences was more consistent. Except the Financial crisis when elevated levels of volatility in both ETFs started just after the S&P 500’s peak and continued for most of the bear market, in the three other periods (and the current period), it wasn’t until late in the decline or after the market made its low that the average number of 1% daily moves in each ETF exceeded 40%.
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