Mar 25, 2026
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“It’s the rough side of the mountain that’s the easiest to climb; the smooth side doesn’t have anything for you to hang on to.” – Aretha Franklin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on Fox Business yesterday. To view the segment, click on the image below.
Global equity markets are in rally mode this morning after reports of potential negotiations between the US and Iran to end the war. Asian markets surged overnight, and that flowed into the European open and US futures this morning. Some of the air has come out of the balloon as we type this, though, on reports that Iranian officials have rejected the US terms delivered via Pakistan. There’s really no way to know at this point what the facts are regarding the state of negotiations, as neither side has any real incentive to conduct talks via the press, so expect more whipsaw action as things continue to progress. The bottom line is that while Iran still holds some cards, the chips are stacked heavily against them.
Outside of equities, the 10-year yield is down 5 bps, crude oil is down 5%, gold is up nearly 4%, and Bitcoin is up 2.5% to more than $71K.
In economic data, the only report on the calendar was Import Prices, which came in at more than double expectations (1.3% m/m vs 0.6%). If you’re looking for lower rates or a dovish Fed, these are not pretty numbers.
The S&P 500 finished down 0.37% yesterday, but most of the losses were focused in the trillion-dollar stock club, where the damage was much more concentrated. While the ‘average’ stock in the S&P 500 traded slightly higher yesterday, seven of the nine stocks in the trillion-dollar club traded lower, with an average of 1.2%. Stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) were notably weak with declines of more than 2.5%, and both closed at multi-month lows. Other mega-caps like Broadcom (AVGO), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) all fell more than 1%. The only mega-caps to buck the trillion-dollar market cap weight were Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL), which saw modest gains.
While the trillion-dollar stocks have been market leaders, they’re no longer the cool-kids table in the lunchroom. For months, they stood out above the rest of the market as the most popular in terms of where they were trading relative to 52-week highs, but now they no longer stand out. MSFT, AVGO, META, and TSLA are all down more than 20% from their respective 52-week highs, and the average drawdown from their peaks is just over 20%. That’s flirting with bear market territory and slightly more than the average 19.9% drawdown for all 500 stocks in the S&P 500.
The cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY) closed down just over 4% for the year yesterday, while the equal-weight version (RSP) is still slightly higher on the year (+0.2%), and their charts have two key differences.
First, as we’re all aware, the cap-weighted S&P 500 has been stuck in a sideways range for several months, forming a gradually curving, rounded top which accelerated when the war started at the turn of the month. The topping process for RSP was much sharper. From the start of the year right up until late February, RSP was steadily making new highs. Once the war broke out, though, the rally was stopped in its tracks, erasing two months’ worth of gains in less than a month.
Second, with RSP still holding on to gains for the year, it has also stayed above its 200-DMA. The same can’t be said for the S&P 500, which broke that level last Thursday. For now, bulls can rationalize SPY’s break of the 200-DMA by pointing to RSP still hanging on to that level. If both indices break that long-term average, though, bulls will have one less arrow in their quiver.
Mar 24, 2026
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Mar 24, 2026
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I don’t trust society to protect us, I have no intention of placing my fate in the hands of men whose only qualification is that they managed to con a block of people to vote for them.” – Mario Puzo, The Godfather
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey will be on Making Money With Charles Payne today on Fox Business between 2 PM and 3 PM to discuss markets and the latest events in Iran. Check it out if you can!
Equity futures have been ping-ponging between gains and losses since the close yesterday, and they’re now on the red side of the table. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both down 0.1%. The 10-year yield has moved back to 4.36%, gaining 3 basis points. Oil prices moved back above $90 as investors try to figure out how things will play out in Iran. Good luck with that! Gold and other precious metals have seen muted moves this morning, with gains or losses of 1%, while Bitcoin has a fractional gain of 0.5%, taking it back above $71K.
It’s a relatively busy day for data this morning with Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs at 8:30, but both reports are stale given the war situation. Investors will probably focus more attention on flash PMIs for March from S&P at 9:45 and the Richmond Fed at 10 AM. All of these reports will take a backseat to whatever geopolitical headlines or “truths” hit the tape.
European stocks were still open for trading yesterday when President Trump made his comments regarding Iran. Therefore, they had the opportunity to adjust, but this morning they’re adding modestly to those gains with the STOXX 600 up 0.3%. Flash PMI readings for March were also released. While manufacturing indices were better than expected, service sector PMIs generally missed.
Asian stocks played catch-up and followed the US lead overnight with gains across the board. Japan was up 1.4% while China rallied nearly 2%, and the Kospi gained 2.7%. The gains weren’t steady, though. In South Korea, for example, the KOSPI started the day with a gain of more than 4% but gave back all those gains early in the session and briefly traded lower before rebounding in the second half of the session. Inflation data in the region was on the light side as Japanese CPI and South Korean PPI for February both rose less than expected. While the lower inflation data was welcome, flash PMIs for Australia and India were both lighter than expected.
After falling more than 50% in price terms from its closing high in August 2020 to its low in October 2023, long-term US Treasuries, as proxied by the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury ETF (TLT), remain in the back half of a lost decade. As shown in the chart below, while prices remain near their multi-year lows, they have stopped going down, and with the long end of the curve yielding close to 5%, a flat market in price terms isn’t so bad.
Looking at a one-year chart of TLT shows an interesting pattern. We’ve discussed the nowhere direction of the equity markets and some notable stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) extensively over the last several weeks, but the treasury market has also been comatose. Look at TLT’s 50 and 200-day moving averages (zoomed in on the inlay). Over the last several weeks, the two have moved in lockstep.
The two moving averages have been moving in such unison that yesterday was the 36th straight trading day the spread between the two was less than 25 basis points. Looking back at the ETF’s history over the last 20+ years, this current streak ranks as the longest in its history. It’s longer than the next closest one by more than two weeks! With the current spread between the two at less than 4 bps, it doesn’t appear likely to widen out to more than 25 bps any time soon!
Mar 23, 2026
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“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” – Sun Tzu
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Asian stocks plunged overnight, Europe was lower, and US futures were in the red about an hour ago, but all it took was one Truth Social Post to erase those losses and push stock futures firmly into the green. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to gap up more than 1.5% at the open, and European stocks are up by about 1%. Treasury yields are modestly lower, but the 10-year yield is still at an uncomfortably high 4.39%. After trading higher earlier, crude oil is down 7% to just under $92 per barrel. Gold is still trading down by close to 4%, sitting at $4,400 per ounce. At the end of January, it was more than $1,000 higher!
After last week’s declines, the Nasdaq finished lower for the fourth week in a row and the ninth week in the last ten. For ten weeks, that’s the fewest positive weeks since June 2022 and before that, July 2002. In the Nasdaq’s entire history, there have only been eight other periods when the Nasdaq declined for nine or more weeks in ten weeks, and only one of those periods saw the Nasdaq go ten straight weeks with declines.
Below, we show when each of these prior periods occurred on a long-term chart of the Nasdaq. Outside of the period in the mid-1970s, these other occurrences all came in the later stages of market declines. That sounds like good news, but a counter to that is that the only other time the Nasdaq declined for nine weeks in a ten-week span and was still so close to 52-week highs was in that early 1970s period.
While it was looking like another negative start to the week earlier, futures took a sharply positive turn after the President’s Truth Social post saying that the US and Iran had engaged in conversations “regarding a complete and total resolution” of hostilities. As a result, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is on pace to gap up 1.5% at the open. If those gains hold through the open, it would be the first 1.5%+ upside gap for QQQ this year and the 266th since the ETF’s inception in 1999.
The chart below shows QQQ’s average performance from the open to close after gapping up 1.5%+ at the open based on the day of the week it occurred. Of the 46 that occurred on a Monday, QQQ’s average performance from the open to close was a gain of 0.11% with positive returns 59% of the time. While positive, that ranks as the worst performance from the open to close following a 1.5%+ upside gap of any other weekday.
Mar 20, 2026
Memorial Day weekend and the beginning of the summer driving season is barely more than two months away. Were you planning a road trip? Well, maybe you’re starting to have second thoughts. Gas prices around the country have surged, and at times like this, the pictures from California always get the most attention. While we’ve seen pictures of even higher prices, the one below pretty much encapsulates what you’ll pay in the high gas price capital of the continental US. With prices reaching $6/gallon for the “cheap stuff”, shelling out $100 each time you go to get gas is now the norm. That’s before snacks, drinks, and the obligatory scratch-offs!
Obviously, California is not the norm. On a national basis, the average price of a gallon of gas, according to AAA, is still at $3.91 and will likely tip above $4 by early next week. Since the start of 2005, only two other periods have seen prices top $4. The first was from June to July of 2008, just as the Financial Crisis was accelerating. Then, in April 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, prices shot up to near $5 and stayed above $4 through early August.
The US consumer isn’t nearly as exposed to energy in terms of their total spending as they have been in decades past, but $4 still hurts. In 2008, the US economy experienced one of the deepest recessions in its history, and while the economy didn’t tip into a recession in 2022, GDP did turn negative, and stocks were in a bear market.
Besides filling up the tank, rising energy prices are showing up in other areas, notably airfares. So, if you thought the TSA security lines, which are growing longer by the day due to the shutdown, were a slap in the face, now you get to pay much more for the privilege of flying.
Between rising energy prices and a government shutdown that politicians have little urgency to end, if you’re up for re-election this year, good luck. This year, that spells trouble for Republicans. While it’s been widely assumed that Democrats would regain control of the House for some time now, in recent weeks, prediction markets have seen those odds increase to the highest levels since the last Presidential election (lower chart).
The picture in the Senate (top chart) is more interesting. While Republicans have largely been expected to maintain control after the midterms, in the last several days, prediction markets are now a toss-up for the Senate and moving in the wrong direction for the GOP. Whatever your political leanings, if you think that DC has been dysfunctional in terms of getting things done for the last year, just wait until next year if Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress. President Trump has shown an ability to pull rabbits out of his hat in the past, but as the midterms inch closer and gas prices sprint higher, the longer this trend persists, the bigger the bunny he’s going to need to pull out of his hat.
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