Sep 19, 2025
If history does not repeat itself, it can at least rhyme. One good example of this has been the performance of the Tech-heavy Nasdaq since the AI era began in earnest with the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. In our chart below that we first published in early 2024, we show the move in the Nasdaq Composite since ChatGPT’s release and compare that to the move in the index following the release of the first modern web browser, NetScape, in December 1994.
As the chart shows, the moves in the Nasdaq following the release of ChatGPT and Netscape have been eerily similar. Putting a number to it, the two lines have an astoundingly high correlation coefficient of 0.95. For a refresher from your 101 statistics class, a coefficient of 1 would indicate the two lines move identically; so for real world statistics, this is about as close as it gets!
In terms of absolute performance, the rally in the Nasdaq has been slightly weaker this go around than it was in the 1990s. Since the release of ChatGPT, the Nasdaq has risen 105%, which compares to a 132.5% gain for the index from December 19, 1994 up through the next 703 trading days (through 9/29/1997). The index doubling in a little more than a two and a half year span is impressive in its own right. With that said, if these two lines were to continue to track one another down the road, history would suggest that there is still plenty of steam left in the rally.
Sep 18, 2025
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the Russell 2,000’s breakout to fresh all time highs, comparing its streak without a high to similar streaks of the past (page 1). Next, we review today’s news surrounding the Supreme Court, Fed Governor Cook, and tariffs (page 2). We then delve into equity market valuations (pages 2 and 3) before shifting into macro data that includes claims (page 4), TICS (page 5), regional Fed Manufacturing gauges (page 6), and freight volumes and prices (page 7).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Sep 17, 2025
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we recap the Fed decision beginning with a review of the update of the Summary of Economic Projections (page 1) followed by a dive into the market’s reaction to the rate cut (pages 2 and 3). We wrap up the report with a review of the latest residential construction figures (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Sep 17, 2025
Fed Day is here! The FOMC concludes its meeting this afternoon and in all likelihood Powell and company will cut rates by 25 bps. As we have highlighted in the past, when it comes to how stocks respond to the FOMC, Powell Fed Days have on average been the worst of any Fed Chair. By the close of trading, the S&P 500 has only averaged a 6 bps gain on Fed days since Powell has been at the helm. That compares to 16 bps for his predecessor, a 50 bps gain for Bernanke and a 26 bps gain for Greenspan. While that may be the case for full-day changes, it’s worth nothing that earlier in the day would be an entirely different story. In fact, between 2:30 PM EST and up until the final half hour of trading, Powell Fed days have actually been on pace for the second strongest stock price reactions of any Fed chair. That means sharp declines at the end of the day can largely be credited for the Fed day weakness during Powell’s tenure. It almost wouldn’t be a Powell Fed day without a post-presser sell-off!
Below is a closer look at the S&P 500’s average intraday path on Powell Fed days. The red line shows the S&P’s average path across all 61 Powell Fed days since his tenure began in 2018, while the blue line shows just the last ten Powell Fed days. Under both scenarios, the market has been sitting on solid gains heading into the 2 PM ET rate decision, but the final hour of trading has averaged a pretty steep drop.
