Bespoke’s Crypto Report — 12/16/22
Bespoke’s Crypto Report contains numerous technical, momentum, and sentiment charts for bitcoin, ethereum, and other key cryptos. Page 1 of the report includes our weekly commentary on the space and attempts to identify any new trends that are emerging. The remaining pages include important overbought/oversold levels to watch, charts on historical drawdowns and rallies, seasonality trends, futures positioning data, Google search trend shifts, and more. Our weekly Crypto Report is produced so that followers of the space can more easily stay on top of price action, technicals, seasonality, and sentiment.
Sign up for a monthly or annual subscription to Bespoke Crypto to receive our weekly Crypto Report and anything else we publish related to cryptos. Note: If you’re currently a Bespoke Premium, Bespoke Newsletter, or Bespoke Institutional subscriber, you’ll need to subscribe to Bespoke Crypto as an add-on to receive access. The weekly Crypto Report and any additional crypto analysis is not included with our Premium, Newsletter, or Institutional memberships. You can sign up for Bespoke Crypto and receive our Crypto Report in your inbox weekly using the monthly or annual checkout links below. If you sign up for the annual plan, the first year of access is 50% off!
Bespoke Crypto Access — Monthly Payment Plan ($49/mth)
Bespoke Crypto Access — Annual Payment Plan ($247.50 for the first 12 months, then $495/year in year 2 and beyond)
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this service to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this service or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities, commodities, or cryptocurrencies. This service contains no buy or sell recommendations. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
The Closer – Post-Fed Malaise, Industrial Drop, Housing Outperformance – 12/15/22
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out tonight with a look at post Fed meeting performance and the correlation between stocks and bonds (page 1). Next, we provide an update of the latest industrial production numbers (page 2) as well as update our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 3). We finish with a look at homebuilders’ outperformance as well as checking in on mortgage backed securities (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 12/15/22
This content is for members onlyContinuing Claims Streak Presses On
Economists were expecting this week’s initial jobless claims to show further increases showing an uptick to 232K. Instead, initial claims improved falling to 211K from 231K last week. That 20K decline was the largest decline since the week of July 23rd when it fell by 24K and brings claims to the lowest level since the end of September.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell to 248.88K. That is roughly in line with the levels from the comparable week of recent years (excluding 2020). Historically, claims have consistently fallen in the second week of December with declines around 90% of the time since 1969. As shown in the second chart below, the final couple weeks of the year tend to see that seasonal drop get erased as claims reverse higher into the first weeks of the new year.
Continuing claims have been more in focus lately as the seasonally adjusted number has surged. Once again this week, the count on continuing claims was higher rising to 1.671 million which was just marginally higher than the prior week.
Although it was not a particularly large increase in the latest week, adjusted continuing claims have risen or gone unchanged for nine weeks in a row. Not even during the onset of the pandemic has there been as consistent of a grind higher in continuing claims with 2009 being the last time there was a longer streak. Additionally, as we have noted with various rates of changes in continuing claims, prior long streaks without a decline have only occurred within the bounds of recession.
As with unadjusted initial claims, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, continuing claims took a small dip as is seasonally normal for this point of the year. As for the weeks ahead, claim counts tend to have choppy seasonality which results in the historical median claims count plateauing a bit before rising into the final weeks of the year. In other words, seasonality is a little bit messy at this point of the year, so we may have to wait until the new year to get readings that are more independent of seasonal factors. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.
