Apr 17, 2023
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients,In tonight’s Closer, we begin with some commentary regarding the debt ceiling and trucking earnings (page 1). We then dive into the details of Schwab’s earnings and bank deposits (page 2). Turning to macro data, we recap today’s Empire Fed report (page 3), TICS report (page 4), auction preview (page 5), and positioning data (pages 6-8).
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Apr 17, 2023
Homebuilder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) was updated this morning. As expected, the headline index rose from 44 in March to 45. Of the sub-indices, increases in both present and future sales drove the headline reading higher. While those readings remain relatively muted versus most of the past decade, it reiterates the modest improvement in sentiment we have seen this year. In fact, and as shown in the second chart below, homebuilder sentiment’s improvement over the past four months marks the longest streak of monthly increases since another streak lasting for four months that ended in December 2021.
As for the regional breakdown, sentiment in the Northeast and South was unchanged versus last month which leaves the indices in the middle of their historical ranges. The Midwest saw more substantial improvement rising by 3 points to the highest level since September. The West experienced an even more substantial increase of five points. That month-over-month increase ranks in the 85th percentile of all moves on record for that sub-index.
Although the NAHB’s reading on homebuilders has improved over the past few months, homebuilder stocks as proxied by the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF (XHB) have been trending lower since February. Recently, XHB has run up to its 50-DMA (which has begun to roll over) and the downtrend line off the aforementioned early February high. So far, XHB has failed to break out.
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Apr 13, 2023
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with an update on the Fed’s balance sheet and money market flows (page 1) before diving into rate differentials (page 2). We then take a look at today’s PPI data (page 3) before closing out with a recap of the long bond reopening (page 4).
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