The Closer – Deal or No Deal, AI Chart Check, Z.1 – 6/11/26

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  • In reaction to more peace talk headlines, Brent crude oil fell to the lowest level since mid-March and the 30-year Treasury yield fell below the 50-DMA on an impressive outside day reversal.
  •  AI stocks have been pulling back leaving some Implementation basket stocks at interesting technical levels.
  • Nonfinancial business debt as a percentage of GDP rose by one of the largest amounts on record since the end of the GFC.

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The Closer – SpaceX, Corporate Bonds, CPI – 6/10/26

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  • While Oracle (ORCL) capex appears to have peaked, it still came in at 86% of revenues.
  • The recent selloff in equity indices has helped push the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 back down to 20.2x, or just below 5% forward earnings yield.
  • Petroleum stockpiles continue to rapidly unwind, especially for strategic reserves that are now only 2.4 mm bbls above the July 2023 low.

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The Closer – Tech Tumble, Breadth Disconnects, Trade – 6/9/26

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  • Tech has experienced a painful 5-day selloff that has taken it down 8.9% off of its high one week ago.
  • Price and breadth were disconnected once again with today marking the 37th time this year that price and breadth moved in opposite directions.
  • AI-linked categories of imports continue to rise exponentially; accounting for 16.5% of total goods imports in April

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