The Closer – Where’s the Beef?, IPO, PMI – 5/21/26

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  • One source of inflation that has not eased is beef prices as live cattle futures currently sit near records of $2.40/lb.
  • US flash PMIs from S&P Global were stronger than international peers, especially for the manufacturing sector.
  • While the single-family housing market remains challenged by high rates, multifamily starts are +20% YoY and at new cycle highs.

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The Closer – Fed Minutes, NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings, Stockpiles – 5/20/26

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  • Today’s release of the FOMC Minutes confirmed that a rump of hawkish members believe that the FOMC should remove the dovish bias from their statement.
  •  NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings showed that data center revenues continue to power growth with compute up 76.8% YoY and networking up 199% YoY.
  • Petroleum inventories have drawn by a record degree over the past month while net exports hover near record highs.

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The Closer – Best of Breed, Rate Rise, Delinquencies – 5/19/26

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  • Moves higher despite negative breadth have been a feature of the rallies in both the broad market and our Best of Breed basket.
  • As the surveyed 30 year mortgage rate reached 6.75%, 10y real yields have surged 17 bps in three sessions.
  • Delinquency and charge off rates for all loans and credit cards have improved, but rates for commercial and industrial loans hit multi-year highs.

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