Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Navigating Netflix – 7/17/25

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“All money is a matter of belief.” – Adam Smith

Often hailed as the father of modern economics, Adam Smith (who died on this day in 1790) profoundly shaped our understanding of free markets and individual liberty through his seminal works, The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments. His ideas on the “invisible hand” and division of labor remain foundational to economic theory, emphasizing how self-interest and cooperation drive prosperity.

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

The banks and brokers always kick off each earnings season, but Netflix (NFLX) is the company that gets things started on the Tech/Consumer side of things.  As shown below, NFLX is heading into its Q2 earnings report tonight in a long-term uptrend, but it has pulled back some in the past couple of weeks after touching up against the top of its one-year uptrend channel at the end of June.  At the moment, it’s sitting just above support at its 50-day moving average after working off overbought levels.

Below is a snapshot of Netflix (NFLX) from our Earnings Explorer tool, which can be seen on our website here for those with access (Institutional only).  After stumbling on sales a few years ago in 2022, NFLX has seen a revenue resurgence with strong beats versus top-line estimates for six straight quarters.  If estimates are met, this will be the third straight $10+ billion quarter for NFLX and the first above $11 billion.

There is some negative historical precedent for Netflix’s Q2 earnings reports specifically, though…

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – More Banks Beat – 7/16/25

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“There is always some kid who may be seeing me for the first time. I owe him my best.” – Joe DiMaggio

On this day in 1941, Yankees star Joe DiMaggio extended his record hit streak to 56 games, which would end the next day.  July 16th was also the day of the first atomic bomb test in New Mexico in 1945.  J.D. Salinger’s Catcher in the Rye was published on July 16th, 1951, and the Apollo 11 moon-landing mission launched on this day in 1969.

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

While the S&P is down just 0.3% over the last week, we’ve seen overbought levels work themselves off for some of the key breadth levels we watch.

The S&P’s 10-day advance/decline line had gotten to one of its most overbought levels of the last year earlier in the month, but it’s currently sitting just below the flat-line.

The percentage of overbought stocks in the S&P has also fallen from a reading above 50% down to 32%, while 22.6% of stocks in the index are now oversold.

Bitcoin, IBIT Trounce Stocks

The iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been the fastest-growing ETF of all time, eclipsing $70 billion in assets in less than 18 months and currently up to $85 billion.  That’s already big enough to rank it in the top 20 or so of the largest “mega-ETFs” in the US.

Since its closing price on launch day back on January 11th, 2024, IBIT is up 156%.  That compares to gains of 36% for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and 31% for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Compared to current S&P 500 stocks, IBIT’s gain of 156% since it launched on 1/11/24 would rank 12th in terms of performance.  There are eleven stocks in the index up even more than that, led by Palantir’s (PLTR) gain of 794%.  Other big winners since IBIT launched include Vistra (VST), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Axon (AXON), NVIDIA (NVDA), Tapestry (TPR), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Netflix (NFLX).  There are 21 stocks in the S&P up more than 100% since IBIT’s launch in early 2024, while the average stock in the index is up 26.1%.

Bitcoin prices were in the mid-$10,000s back in November 2022.  Since its low point during that month, Bitcoin is up 668%.  We also looked to see how that gain compares to the best-performing S&P 500 stocks over the same time frame.  As shown below, just four stocks in the index are up more than Bitcoin since its 2022 low: Palantir (PLTR) — up nearly 2,000%, NVIDIA (NVDA) — up nearly 1,000%, Coinbase (COIN), and Vistra (VST).  Another four stocks are up more than 400% over the same time frame: Meta (META), Super Micro (SMCI), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and Broadcom (AVGO).