The Closer – Weak Market, Solar Flail, AI Capex – 6/17/25

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look into the weakening technicals for the market in addition to some comments on other big movers for other assets (page 1). We check in on the big sell-off in solar stocks in addition to a look at how other alternative energy names have done (page 2).  Afterward, we highlight AI capex figures (page 3), retail sales (page 4), industrial production (page 5), and New York Fed Services activity (page 6).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/17/25

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“A man has cause for regret only when he sows and no one reaps.” – Charles Goodyear

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

After a strong bounce-back day yesterday following Friday’s 1% drop, US equity futures are down slightly ahead of today’s open on relatively little news.  As shown below, market internals remain overbought, but not by much.

Looking at sectors, Energy now has the highest percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages at 91.3%, and the Energy sector’s valuation relative to the last ten years is on the low side compared to the rest of the market.  Financials and Technology currently have the highest valuations relative to readings over the last ten years.

The Closer – Iran & Reconciliation, Crude, Empire – 6/16/25

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with commentary regarding the situation in Iran in addition to progress in the Senate’s version of the budget bill (page 1).  Next, we review the very volatile back-to-back sessions for crude prices (page 2) before finishing with a recap of the Empire Fed release (page 3).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/16/25

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“When the lambs is lost in the mountain, he said. They is cry. Sometime come the mother. Sometime the wolf.” – Cormac McCarthy, Blood Meridian

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

US equity futures are bouncing back pre-market to start the new trading week after a 1%+ drop last Friday.  As shown below, the S&P has stabilized with less volatility over the last few weeks, giving it a chance to re-charge for an eventual breakout to new highs.  The index needs to gain about 2.9% from its current level to make a new all-time high.

Brunch Reads – 6/13/25

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

King John Caves: On June 15, 1215, King John of England put his seal on the Magna Carta at Runnymede, a field west of London, after months of pressure from a group of rebellious barons. His rule had become deeply unpopular due to high taxes, failed military campaigns in France, and arbitrary justice. The barons had taken up arms and even captured London, forcing John to negotiate.

The Magna Carta was essentially a peace agreement. It laid out a set of demands from the barons that aimed to limit the king’s power, especially in taxation and legal matters. It required the king to follow certain rules, like obtaining consent for new taxes and guaranteeing that free men had a right to a fair trial.

Though the document was meant to prevent civil war, it didn’t succeed immediately. John asked the Pope to annul it just weeks later, and fighting broke out again. Still, the Magna Carta symbolized the idea that rulers are not above the law. Over time, parts of it were reissued and expanded, influencing future legal systems, including the US Constitution and the development of modern democracies.

AI & Technology

The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity (Apple)
Even though new models are getting better at showing their work, this study finds that their “reasoning” starts to fall apart once puzzles hit a certain level of difficulty. The authors built a controlled testing environment to isolate and study how these models think, not just whether they get the right answer, and what they found is that the extra thinking steps often don’t help past a point. Strikingly, models actually put in less effort on harder problems, suggesting that today’s reasoning models might still be more surface-level than they seem. It is interesting to note that this study comes from Apple, who has generally been perceived to be behind the AI race. [Link]

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