The Closer – First Half Close, Weak Dollar, AI Ideas – 6/30/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a recap of first quarter performance (page 1) including a look at the historically bad start for the dollar (page 2) and underperformance of US equities relative to the rest of the world (page 3). Next, we check in on the performance of our AI baskets (page 4) including a look at some other under the radar AI plays (page 5). We finish with a review of the latest manufacturing data (page 6).
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/30/25 – Resume the Counting!
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It would be good to be a fake somebody rather than a real nobody.” – Mike Tyson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The market enthusiasm that took the S&P 500 to new highs last Friday has followed through to the new week as the S&P 500 looks to gap up about 0.5% at the open. Financials are leading this morning’s gains as the Fed announced last Friday that all of the banks passed the stress tests. Goldman Sachs (GS) is leading the way with gains of over 3%, but all of the other major banks and brokers are up around 1% or more.
The only economic indicators on the calendar this morning are the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30. Washington will be a focus for the market today as investors look to see if the Senate can pass a version of the GOP tax bill.
Last Friday’s close in the S&P 500 marked the first new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 in over four months and now fully puts the tariff-induced near-bear market in the rearview mirror. It also completes one of the more stunning market cycles where the S&P 500 experienced one of its sharpest sell-offs from an all-time high on record, followed by one of its swiftest rebounds.
With the new high, we can also resume the count of new all-time closing highs for the S&P 500, which for 2025 now totals four. That may sound like a meager number, but two months ago, the thought of new highs for the S&P 500 seemed like a pipe dream. With roughly 125 trading days left in the year, we’re unlikely to get anywhere near last year’s total of 57 record closing highs this year, but you have to start somewhere.
Brunch Reads – 6/29/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Apple Reinvents the Phone: On June 29, 2007, Apple released the first iPhone. Maybe you’re reading this on one right now, 18 years later. At $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB, it wasn’t cheap, but lines still wrapped around Apple and AT&T stores as people camped out overnight, eager to get their hands on what Steve Jobs had promised was “an iPod, a phone, and an internet communicator.”
Until then, smartphones were mostly clunky devices with physical keyboards, tiny screens, and software designed more for business than pleasure. The iPhone ditched the stylus, let you tap, swipe, and pinch your way around a touchscreen, and packed it all into a minimalist design that looked more like a luxury item than a tech gadget at the time. There was no App Store yet, just preloaded apps like Safari, Mail, and iPod, but it was enough to start a tech revolution.
Critics were initially skeptical. There was no physical keyboard, no 3G, no copy-paste. But the public didn’t care. Within days, the iPhone became a cultural phenomenon, and within a few years, it would redefine communication, media, commerce, and even life itself. Everything from maps and music to photography, shopping, and banking sits in our pockets. Today, the iPhone is slimmer, faster, and smarter, featuring AI-powered capabilities and professional-grade cameras. Over 2.3 billion iPhones have been sold since launch, with Apple shipping more than 230 million annually in recent years and commanding a massive global user base of 1.38 billion people. It’s no exaggeration to say the iPhone made Apple one of the most valuable companies in the world, worth over $3 trillion today.
AI & Technology
Cloudflare CEO says people aren’t checking AI chatbots’ source links (Engadget)
AI companies include source links, but traffic data suggests that people aren’t clicking them. Publishers are paying the price. Cloudflare’s CEO says referral rates from OpenAI and Anthropic are dismal, with one site visit for every thousand pages scraped, turning the web into a one-way extraction machine. In response, Cloudflare is rolling out tools to trap and frustrate unauthorized AI bots, calling out the industry for ignoring “no crawl” rules and draining the open internet without paying. [Link]
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International Revenues
Equities have returned to record highs, but performance during the fall from grace earlier this year and the subsequent rebound off the April lows has not exactly been even. With tariff headlines being one of the main focuses of the market this year, performance has been sensitive to how exposed a given stock is to international trade. One proxy for this international exposure is the percentage of revenues that a company generates inside versus outside of the US. As shown below, from the election last November through Liberation Day when President Trump first announced reciprocal tariff rates, the best-performing cohort of Russell 1,000 members was those that do not generate any revenues outside of US borders (about 27% of member stocks in the index). That group averaged a 1.36% gain over that span compared to an average loss of 6.24% for the stocks that generate over half of their revenues outside the US (a little less than 20% of member stocks) or a more modest 2.65% average loss for all stocks in the index. Obviously, with the index trading at fresh records, stocks have amazingly been in rally mode in the wake of Liberation Day, with the average Russell 1,000 now sitting on a 4.6% gain in that span. Those internationals that had formerly been hit the hardest have since shifted to the best performers, averaging a 6.28% gain.
Breaking the Russell 1,000 into deciles (equal-sized groups ranked by their share of revenues generated internationally from low to high) is another way of telling the story. As shown in the first chart below, from Election Day through Liberation Day, the only decile to average a gain was comprised of the stocks with zero international revenue exposure. Conversely, decile 10 of the most heavily exposed dropped 8.16% on average, the worst of any decile. That trend of outperformance of domestics with underperformance of internationals has been turned on its head in the past couple of months as decile 10 is now the best performing group since Liberation Day..
Using data from our International Revenues Database, a little over a quarter of the Russell 1,000 generates all of their revenues domestically (or in North America). That reading has been mostly flat in the past few years and is also down versus the high 30% range in the late 2000s. By comparison, the share of stocks that rely on international sales for a majority of their revenues is a little less than 20% which is right inline with the typical reading observed for most of the past decade.
Of course, the type of business a company is involved in is a major determinant of international revenue exposure. For example, Utilities are, in a sense, natural monopolies as well as heavily regulated. Logically, that makes it hard for these companies to break into new markets, especially outside the US. As such, nearly all of that sector’s revenues are generated within US borders, whereas an area like Tech is the polar opposite. Easier trade restrictions and largely frictionless supply chains for things like software mean that the Tech sector sees almost half of its revenues come from outside the US.
The Bespoke Report – Equity Market Pros and Cons – Q3 2025
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q3 2025.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page three of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page four and beyond.
To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, sign up for Bespoke’s 50/20 special today. Our 50/20 special gets you a full year of Premium for half off, then 20% off per month after the first year. SIGN UP HERE.
Below is a look at the performance of key ETFs across asset classes so far in Q2 and year-to-date.
After a very rough March and early April, equities both domestically and globally have surged since. The S&P 500 (SPY) is currently up more than 10% in Q2 with just one full trading day left on Monday. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up much more at 17.4%, while the Semis (SMH) are up more than 30%.
As good as it has been in the US, it has been an even better first half and second quarter for much of the rest of the world. The All World ex US ETF (CWI) is up 18.5% on the year versus a gain of 5.7% for the US (SPY), and countries like Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), Mexico (EWW), and Spain (EWP) are sitting on 30%+ YTD gains.
As a reminder, quarterly rallies this strong aren’t the norm, so enjoy it but don’t get too cocky heading into Q3. Mr. Market loves serving humble pie to the face of investors that think they have it all figured out.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/27/25 – Lockstep
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If we really want to know who is responsible for the mess we’re in, all we have to do is look in the mirror.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Less than three months after President Trump unleashed “Liberation Day” on the world and sent the S&P 500 plunging by nearly 20%, a new phrase has made its way back into the lexicon: new highs. Equity futures are higher this morning, with the S&P 500 trading at record highs following a strong session in Europe. Treasury yields and crude oil are modestly higher, while gold is plunging over 1% as investors continue to exit safe-haven trades.
For these new highs to hold through the closing bell, we still have to navigate a decent amount of economic data for a summer Friday with reports of Personal Income, Personal Spending, and PCE at 8:30, followed by Michigan Sentiment at 10 AM. The 8:30 data was mixed but mostly in the wrong direction. Personal Income came in sharply weaker than expected, falling 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Personal Spending fell 0.1% compared to expectations for an increase of 0.1%. On the inflation front, headline PCE was right inline with expectations at 0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y, but the core reading was a tenth higher than expected on both a m/m and y/y basis at 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively. The initial reactions to the data have been pretty muted.
Looking at US equity market performance, we were struck by how uniform the gains have been over the last five trading sessions. All fourteen of the index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer screen have gained at least 2%. At the top of the list, both ends of the market cap spectrum are represented with Microcaps (IWC) up 3.4% while megacaps in the Nasdaq and S&P 100 are the second and third best performers with gains of 3.26% and 2.90%, respectively. Relative to their short-term trading ranges, all fourteen index ETFs are at similarly overbought levels, and they are all at least 4% above their 50-day moving averages. The only area that returns haven’t been uniform is on a YTD basis, where the Nasdaq 100 is up 6.8% while small caps are in the red.
The Closer – Growth Woes, Hard vs Soft, Shorts – 6/26/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after beginning with a recap of the latest spending bill drama, Fedspeak, and GDP revisions (page 1), we review jobless claims data (page 2). After that, we check in on the conflicting signals in hard and soft data (page 3) before closing out with an update on the newest short interest figures (pages 4 and 5).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: FedEx (FDX)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers FedEx’s (FDX) Q4 2025 earnings call.
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a global logistics and transportation company that provides express delivery, freight, and e-commerce services across more than 220 countries and territories. Known for its vast and flexible global network, FedEx connects over 3 million shippers to 225 million consumers and moves $2 trillion worth of goods annually. The company serves a wide range of customers, from large multinationals to small businesses, offering integrated logistics, supply chain solutions, and advanced digital tools to navigate increasingly complex trade environments. FedEx posted a modest 1% revenue growth in Q4 FY2025 amid a volatile global trade landscape, with strong execution driving an 8% increase in adjusted operating income. Tariff disruptions sharply reduced China-to-US volumes, but still, FedEx maintained flexibility, increasing US domestic parcel volume by 6%, and made further progress on its $4B cost-reduction DRIVE initiative. Healthcare and auto logistics were standouts, with $9B in healthcare revenue and GM naming FedEx Supplier of the Year. The Freight spin-off remains on track for June 2026…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Carnival Corporation’s (CCL) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Carnival Corporation (CCL) is the world’s largest leisure travel company and cruise operator, with a portfolio of nine global brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, and Holland America Line. It operates over 90 ships serving millions of passengers annually across North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Known for delivering high-value vacation experiences at scale, Carnival provides insight into global travel trends, discretionary consumer spending, and hospitality demand across demographics. What sets the company apart is its ability to pair operational scale with brand differentiation, while also owning and developing exclusive destinations, such as private islands and beach resorts that enhance onboard offerings. In Q2 2025, Carnival delivered record results for the eighth consecutive quarters. Yields rose 6.5% amid strong ticket and onboard demand, and margins surpassed 2019 levels by 200 basis points, the highest in 20 years. Carnival hit all three of its 2026 targets 18 months early, including a 20% carbon intensity reduction. Expansion of Celebration Key and the new “Paradise Collection” were key themes, alongside a revamped loyalty program and ongoing fleet upgrades. Despite geopolitical headwinds, bookings remain strong, and the company raised full-year guidance…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: AeroVironment (AVAV)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers AeroVironment’s (AVAV) Q4 2025 earnings call.
AeroVironment (AVAV) is a US-based defense technology company specializing in unmanned systems, loitering munitions, autonomous platforms, and advanced solutions across air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains. Best known for its Switchblade drones and Puma UAS, AVAV serves the US Department of Defense, international allies, and key government agencies. Its portfolio offers unique insight into military modernization, battlefield autonomy, and the global demand for small, rapidly deployable unmanned systems. AVAV closed fiscal 2025 with record revenue of $821M (up 14%) and Q4 revenue of $275M (up 40%). Loitering Munitions saw massive momentum, pushed forward by a nearly $1B sole-source IDIQ contract from the US Army and $477M in LMS bookings. AVAC introduced three new products (P550, JUMP 20-X, and Red Dragon) all of which are expected to generate hundreds of millions in future backlog. The BlueHalo acquisition expanded AVAV’s reach into space, cyber, and directed energy. Notably, over 52% of fiscal 2025 sales were international, showing surging NATO demand as defense budgets grow globally. AVAV reported better-than-expected results on the top and bottom lines and the stock is up close to 40% since the close on Tuesday, 6/24…
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