Claims Still Strong

Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims remain off of the low from one month ago, but this week did see a sequential improvement.  Claims dropped by 2K to 184K from last week’s slightly upwardly revised level of 186K.  That is the ninth week in a row with sub-200K prints as claims sit at some of the lowest levels on record.

initial jobless claims

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were also impressive falling from 224.1K to 196.9K as the brief seasonal uptick at this point of the year unwinds.  As shown in the second chart below, the current week of the year has only seen claims rise week over week 12% of the time historically.  Claims will likely continue to see seasonal tailwinds through the next several weeks before a seasonal increase in the late spring and summer.

initial jobless claims

Lagged one week to initial claims, continuing claims came in below expectations of 1.459 million, reaching a new low of 1.417 million. That sets the lowest level since February 1970.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

continuing jobless claims

Claims Bounce Off Multi-Decade Lows

After coming in at one of the lowest levels on record last week, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims bounced up to 185K this week. While higher, jobless claims are still historically strong having spent a record eight straight weeks with sub-200K readings.

Initial Jobless Claims

As we noted last week, seasonal adjustments overstated the strength of claims as unadjusted claims experienced a seasonally unusual decline. This week was more normal from a seasonal perspective with initial claims rising from 194.4K to 222.5K and the first reading above 200K since the week of March 11. As shown in the second chart below, the current week of the year has consistently seen claims move higher week over week marking a temporary high before resuming the seasonal downtrend through the next couple of months. That means the slight uptick this month is likely mostly seasonal and far from any sort of a change in trend.

Initial Jobless Claims

Lagged one week to initial claims, continuing jobless claims fell to a new low of 1.475 million.  That is the lowest level of claims since March 1970. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Continuing Jobless Claims