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“It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours.” – Harry Truman
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The weather has been hot across much of the country the last several days, and that heat will move to the markets this week with a busy schedule of economic data, peak earnings season, and the FOMC announcing its latest policy decision.
Ahead of the kickoff of trading, equity futures and bond yields are modestly higher along with crude oil and copper. On the downside, Bitcoin is down over 3% while gold is flat. Over in Europe, Germany’s ifo index tracking the business climate fell more than expected as a recession looks increasingly likely.
Today’s Morning Lineup discusses earnings news out of Europe and the Americas, economic data from around the world, and much more.
With all the earnings and economic data on the calendar this week, investors will likely have a much better read on the economy and its direction on Friday. Several indicators have already pointed to the increased likelihood of a recession, and the yield curve has also been indicating a more precarious economic picture. While the spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries has been negative for three weeks now, the spread between the 10-year and the 3-month yields has yet to move to inverted levels. A few months ago, the relative steepness of the Fed’s preferred yield curve measure was cited as a reason why a recession was not in the cards. However, after flattening by nearly 200 bps to just 40 bps in the last three months, even this part of the curve (light blue line) looks much less comforting.
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