Claims Come Off the Lows
Initial jobless claims have come off of multi-decade lows in the past few weeks with the most recent print released this morning marking the most significant increase in some time. Claims are back up to 200K for the first time since the week of February 11th. Additionally, the 19K week over week increase was the largest one-week uptick since last July when they rose 33K and the level of claims was more than double what it is now.
Non-seasonally adjusted claims are also still at historically strong levels albeit having come off the lows. The only comparable week of the year that has seen a lower reading on claims was in 2018 when they were roughly 7K below current levels.
In terms of seasonal trends, claims will likely continue to fall modestly in the coming weeks before running into some seasonal headwinds in the late spring and early summer.
Continuing claims are delayed an additional week to initial jobless claims and this reading set a new low in the most recent print. Claims fell below 1.4 million for the first time since February 1970 reiterating the point that there are a historically small number of people filing continued unemployment claims. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.