Claims Come Off the Lows

May 5, 2022

Initial jobless claims have come off of multi-decade lows in the past few weeks with the most recent print released this morning marking the most significant increase in some time.  Claims are back up to 200K for the first time since the week of February 11th. Additionally, the 19K week over week increase was the largest one-week uptick since last July when they rose 33K and the level of claims was more than double what it is now.

Initial Jobless Claims

Non-seasonally adjusted claims are also still at historically strong levels albeit having come off the lows.  The only comparable week of the year that has seen a lower reading on claims was in 2018 when they were roughly 7K below current levels.

In terms of seasonal trends, claims will likely continue to fall modestly in the coming weeks before running into some seasonal headwinds in the late spring and early summer.

Initial Jobless Claims NSA

Continuing claims are delayed an additional week to initial jobless claims and this reading set a new low in the most recent print.  Claims fell below 1.4 million for the first time since February 1970 reiterating the point that there are a historically small number of people filing continued unemployment claims. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

Continuing Jobless Claims

Claims Bounce Off Multi-Decade Lows

Apr 14, 2022

After coming in at one of the lowest levels on record last week, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims bounced up to 185K this week. While higher, jobless claims are still historically strong having spent a record eight straight weeks with sub-200K readings.

Initial Jobless Claims

As we noted last week, seasonal adjustments overstated the strength of claims as unadjusted claims experienced a seasonally unusual decline. This week was more normal from a seasonal perspective with initial claims rising from 194.4K to 222.5K and the first reading above 200K since the week of March 11. As shown in the second chart below, the current week of the year has consistently seen claims move higher week over week marking a temporary high before resuming the seasonal downtrend through the next couple of months. That means the slight uptick this month is likely mostly seasonal and far from any sort of a change in trend.

Initial Jobless Claims

Lagged one week to initial claims, continuing jobless claims fell to a new low of 1.475 million.  That is the lowest level of claims since March 1970. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Continuing Jobless Claims