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Bond Market Massively Oversold

The sell-off in bond prices over the last six months has been extreme to say the least.  There are a number of ways we could highlight the carnage for bond investors, but one way is to look at how far bond indices are trading below their 200-day moving averages.  As shown below, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Market Total Return index is currently 8.5% below its 200-day moving average.

Bond Market Index

Going back to 1988 when daily price data begins, the 200-DMA spread is currently 2x more negative than any prior extreme oversold reading.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium financial markets research.

US Bond Market

The Closer – March Minutes Reaction, Balance Sheet Runoff, Neighbor Data, EIA – 4/6/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a summary of the minutes from the March FOMC meeting.  We follow up with a note on balance sheet runoff and the market’s reaction to today’s release of the minutes. We then recap some data South and North of the border in the form of Mexican vehicle production and the record Ivey PMI in Canada. We close out with a recap of this week’s petroleum stockpile data from the EIA.

If you’re wondering what the Closer is like each day, click here or on the thumbnail image below for a sample of a few pages from the report.

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

The Closer – Markets Wake Up Toa Screeching Hawks, Real Yield Surge, Trade Insight – 4/5/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin tonight with an overview of today’s Fedspeak and the price action in response.  We then take a look at real rates followed by the US trade deficit before finishing with an update on delinquency data for the month of February.

See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/4/22 – Elon Flips the Bird

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy.” – Elon Musk

Heading into today, it was looking like a quiet start to what was looking like a slow week as the economic calendar is light and earnings season doesn’t kick off for at least another week.  That changed a bit following news that Elon Musk had taken a passive 9.2% stake in Twitter (TWTR) pushing the stock up by more than 25% in pre-market trading to its highest level since late November.  Last week on Twitter, Musk made the statement at the top of this note and then followed up with the question, “What should be done?”  Well, this morning we appear to be getting an answer. Twitter has long been criticized for not realizing its full potential, and TWTR shareholders are hoping Musk can move the company in that direction.

Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.

With the stock poised to open up more than 20% this morning, it will be just the fourth time in its history as a public company in 2013 that TWTR has gapped up more than 20%.  Two of those days were in reaction to earnings (July 2014 and February 2018), and then on the day of its IPO in November 2013.  Today, it’s all Elon.

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