Bespoke Brunch Reads: 3/15/20

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

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Social Distance Immediately

Cancel Everything by Yascha Mounk (The Atlantic)

A compelling argument that governments and corporations need to immediately reduce human contact that spreads Covid-19 in order to reduce the total number of people who contract the virus. [Link; soft paywall]

The City That Never Sleeps Is Brought to Standstill by Virus by Olivia Rockeman, Katya Kazakina, and Henry Goldman (Bloomberg)

A summary of what sort of massive impact Covid-19 is having on the swirling heart of finance and media for the entire world. [Link; auto-playing video]

Housebound Italian Kids Strain Network With Fortnite Marathon by Daniele Lepido and Niclas Rolander (Bloomberg)

With tens of millions (if not more) people shuttered into their homes across Europe and the rest of the developed world, networks which facilitate streaming and gaming are under increasing strain. [Link]

Coronavirus is mysteriously sparing kids and killing the elderly. Understanding why may help defeat the virus. by William Wan and Joel Achenbach (WaPo)

While a tiny fraction of those under the age of 40 (and an even smaller one under the age of 20) suffer serious cases of Covid-19, the WHP estimates a death rate of over 20% for those above 80. [Link]

Coronavirus case from November could be patient zero by Amanda Woods (New York Post)

The earliest-known coronavirus patient was a 55-year old man in Wuhan during mid-November, one of more than 250 infections from 2019, long before the virus burst on to the scene. [Link]

About Half of Cruise Virus Cases Asymptomatic, Study Suggests by Tim Loh (Bloomberg)

Comprehensive testing regimes for of small populations suggest that a very large fraction of those who have Covid-19 either do not ever or do not yet present symptoms of the disease. [Link; soft paywall]

Two Women Fell Sick From the Coronavirus. One Survived. by Sui-Lee Wee and Vivian Wang (NYT)

The line between easily overcoming Covid-19 and falling victim to the virus is often imperceptible to the naked eye, even among workers who draw huge viral loads from constant exposure to the disease. [Link; soft paywall]

More Coronas

The Dismantled State Takes on a Pandemic by Alex Pareene (The New Republic)

A multi-decade project to strip the federal government of capacity is coming home to roost amidst a bungled and haphazard response to a global pandemic that is now running entirely out of control in the United States. [Link; soft paywall]

Coronavirus burial pits so vast they’re visible from space by Erin Cunningham and Dalton Bennett (WaPo)

With Covid-19 running unchecked throughout Iran, the Shia holy site of Qom has proven ground zero for both cases and deaths, leading to so many bodies that authorities appear to be burying them in mass graves. [Link]

Testing

Gates-funded program will soon offer home-testing kits for new coronavirus by Sandi Doughton (Seattle Times)

As Covid-19 spreads widely, rapid testing has been a focal point of innovation which might allow those with the virus to be able to avoid spreading it; one kit offers at-home testing kits that would not require leaving the house. [Link]

Colorado changes policy for drive-up COVID-19 testing facility by Blair Miller (NBC KOAA)

A drive-through testing facility that makes it possible for Colorado residents to get tested without leaving their vehicles has seen massive demand. [Link]

The Cost of Not Getting Tested For Coronavirus: A $10k ER Bill (The City)

After coming back from Italy, a Brooklyn public school teacher was told she couldn’t be tested for the deadly epidemic but the total cost of her brief ER visit was still five figures. [Link]

Covid-19 Effects

U.S. Recession a Coin Toss as Chances Climb to 53% Within Year by Reade Pickerty, Yue Qiu, and Alexander McIntyre (Bloomberg)

Exploding credit spreads, plunging bond yields, and stock prices 25% below where they sat a few weeks ago; these are just some of the financial market signals that indicate imminent recession. [Link; soft paywall]

Coronavirus will change how we shop, travel and work for years by Enda Curran (MSN)

An exploration of how the current global pandemic might change consumer behavior, from tourism hiring to regulation of cleaning regimes. [Link]

Leaked Emails: Norwegian Pressures Sales Team to Mislead Potential Customers About Coronavirus by Alexi C. Cardona (Miami New Times)

In an effort to prevent cancellations, salespeople from Norwegian Cruise Lines tried to play down the risks Covid-19 posed to guests as the industry teetered on the edge of total free-fall. [Link]

Europe

Germany to offer companies unlimited credit to withstand coronavirus crisis by Jill Petzinger (Yahoo!)

In order to keep companies’ doors open during a catastrophic collapse in demand, the German government is getting ready to grant billions in loans, with no upper limit on the liquidity being deployed. [Link]

‘We Are Like Animals’: Inside Greece’s Secret Site for Migrants by Matina Stevis-Gridneff, Patrick Kingsley, Haley Willis, Sarah Almukhtar and Malachy Browne (NYT)

As finger-pointing and recriminations resound across the Greco-Turkish border (as has been the case for a very long time indeed), migrants are caught in the crossfire…sometimes literally. [Link; paywall]

How We Live Now

A no-savings generation is cashing in its sneaker collections by Ronald D. White (MSN)

As precarity mounts even in the midst of a long economic expansion, consumers are turning to some unusual places to find some cash during times of need. [Link]

Sit, stay forever: Americans willing to pay top dollar to keep old dogs alive by Barbara Goldberg (Reuters)

Americans are investing thousands in health care to prolong the lives of pets that were once regarded as a much less important destination for funds. [Link]

Why 30-50 Feral Hogs Went Viral After Two Mass Tragedies by Casey Johnston (Vice)

An investigation into the virality of a uniquely horrible (but also darkly hilarious) argument against gun control in the wake of multiple mass shootings. [Link]

Malfeasance

SEC Votes to Ease Audit Requirements for Smaller Companies by Paul Kiernan (WSJ)

In a move that seems almost guaranteed to radically increase the number of frauds operating in US equity markets, the SEC voted this week to remove the requirements that small companies have external auditors review their systems for external controls. [Link; paywall]

Secret Users Of Clearview AI’s Facial Recognition Dragnet Included A Former Trump Staffer, A Troll, And Conservative Think Tanks by Ryan Mac, Carolione Haskins, and Logan McDonald (BuzzFeed News)

As part of our ongoing tally of misdeeds from facial recognition company Clearview, this story reviews the long line of non-law enforcement users who had access to the software. [Link]

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Have a great weekend!

The Closer: End of Week Charts — 3/13/20

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.  We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.


The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a free trial below to see it!

See tonight’s Closer by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!

Last Stocks Above Their Moving Averages

The massive declines over the past few weeks have left conditions extremely oversold.  As we highlighted in yesterday’s Sector Snapshot, breadth has been awful while there is no longer a single stock in the S&P 500 that is overbought (1 or more standard deviations above its 50-DMA).  In fact, after yesterday’s absolute washout, there is only a small handful of stocks that are above their 50 and 200-DMAs. In regards to the 50-DMA, less than 1% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above this average which is the first time that has happened since 2011. The only time in between that saw a similarly weak reading, although not quite hitting that under 1% requirement was back in December of 2018 when 1.19% of stocks were above their 50-DMA. As for the 200-DMA, only 5.59% are above that level.  That is the lowest reading since March of 2009.

The average stock is now 26.56% below its 50-day and 24.5% below its 200-day.  The table below shows those 22 remaining stocks that are still above their 200-DMAs as of yesterday’s close and the few that are also below their 50-DMA. Of these, only Regeneron (REGN), Kroger (KR), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), and Gilead Sciences (GILD) are also above their 50-DMAs. The only other stock in the index that is also above its 50-DMA is Cabot Oil and Gas (COG), though it is 11% below its 200-DMA.  While these stocks have all held above their long term moving average recently, only GILD and REGN have risen since the index’s high on 2/19. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access Daily Sector Snapshot and much more.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/13/20 – Limit Up (For Now)

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

These days any discussion of levels in the financial markets warrants the qualifier ‘for now’.  With that in mind, US equity futures are trading limit up (5%) on optimism that the FOMC will continue to pump liquidity into financial markets, Washington is going to act regarding emergency measures to limit the economic impact, and maybe even that testing will become more widespread.  We’re not out of the woods yet, and the headlines are going to get worse, but at some point the market will be able to look through that.  Just to give you an idea of how volatile the overnight session was, futures have basically traded in a range of 9%.

Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of the carnage in financial markets overnight and the latest tallies on Covid-19 cases.

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You’re probably getting sick of charts showing how extreme the moves we have seen in financial markets over the last month have been, but the move in high yield spreads has only been seen at one other time in the last twenty years.  In short, when spreads rise it indicates increased risk aversion on the part of investors.  In the last four weeks, spreads have increased 386 basis points (bps) or nearly four percentage points. The only time we saw that rapid an increase was at the height of the financial crisis in October 2008.

The Closer – Thursday Thrashing: Fifth-Worst Day for Stocks of All-Time – 3/12/20

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after the S&P 500 experienced one of its worst days on record we take a look at some of the other extremes in markets both in the US and abroad. Next, we show some broken aspects of fixed income markets including airline bonds and mortgages. We finish with a look at the declines in Brazil and Canada.

See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

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