Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/18/25 – Vibe Shift
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“Bitcoin is like anything else: it’s worth what people are willing to pay for it.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
In the world of spreadsheets, any financial model can tell you with precision what a stock or asset should be worth, but in the real world, just as the S&P 500 rarely has an ‘average’ annual return, stocks and other assets rarely trade at the price where they should trade. It doesn’t take long in the market to learn that sentiment is often just as important as fundamentals, and the last few weeks show that sentiment about what things are worth in many areas of the financial market has been shifting.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down about 0.5% with the Dow slightly weaker as a 3.4% decline in Home Depot (HD) following earnings drags on that index. The risk-off sentiment has treasury yields moving modestly lower, with the 10-year yield down to 4.10%. Crude oil is little changed but below $60 per barrel, gold is down over 1%, and Bitcoin is modestly lower after briefly breaking below $90,000 overnight (more on that below).
Asian stocks traded sharply lower in the aftermath of selling in the US yesterday. Japan and South Korea both fell over 3%, while Hong Kong was down closer to 2%, and China got off ‘easy’ with a fall of just 0.8%. The declines in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI now have those indices down over 6% from their respective highs, but Japan is still up over 22% YTD and South Korea is up over 60%, so they’re still handily outperforming the S&P 500.
Europe is also taking a defensive tone this morning as major indices in the region are all down between 1% and 2%. There’s been no real catalyst behind the move besides the overall risk-off tone across global markets.
What people are willing to pay for Bitcoin today is a lot lower now than it was six weeks ago. After hitting record highs in early October, Bitcoin prices have been in free-fall, dropping more than 27% from their highs and to their lowest level since the tariff-tantrum in April. From a technical perspective, the 50-DMA has now crossed down through the 200-DMA, indicating a shift in the trend for crypto.
More notable about the recent weakness is that prices are now on pace for just the third down year since 2015. It’s been a painful six weeks, but if there’s any consolation, “HODLers” can take some comfort that this year’s decline is nowhere nearly as steep as the 64.3% decline in 2022 and the 73.8% decline in 2018.
With a decline of around 27% from its recent high, Bitcoin’s decline has been contained, at least relatively speaking. The chart below shows Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns from record highs, and the current decline has been tame compared to the historical norms. Since 2017, on any given day, Bitcoin’s median decline from an all-time high has been 40%.
What’s notable about the recent decline is that, over the weekend, Bitcoin ended a streak of 219 days without trading in a 25% drawdown. That was the longest streak since at least 2015.
While Bitcoin’s just-ended streak without a 25% decline was historic, one could argue it’s even more overdue for a 30% decline. Through yesterday, Bitcoin has gone nearly 22 months without falling more than 30% from an all-time high, but it is getting close…
The Closer – Baskets & Bitcoin – 11/17/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with an update on major equity index technicals following today’s decline (page 1) in addition to updates on a number of baskets including those tracking momentum, unprofitable tech, private equity, travel stocks, and more (pages 2 & 3). We then review Bitcoin’s bear market (page 4) before diving into the charts of a couple hyper-scalers (page 5). After that, we provide our quarterly update of our Best of Breed Basket (pages 6 & 7). We finish with recaps of the latest economic data (pages 8 & 9).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/17/25
Chart of the Day: Chilean Intrigue
Empire Fed Rising
The first regional Fed manufacturing report covering the month of November hit the tape this morning in the form of the New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey. The headline index rose 8 points month over month to 18.7, moving the index to the top quartile of historical readings. Outside of last November’s reading of 20.2, this was also the highest reading in the index since April 2022.
Breadth in this month’s report was solid, with six of ten categories rising month over month while four declined. Of the decliners, both price indices moderated. New orders picked up materially, as did both employment indices. Current condition indices are mostly solid now, with only two in contraction (unfilled orders and supply availability), and those same two indices are also the only ones below their median historical readings.
Six-month expectations, on the other hand, leave room for improvement. Across the board, only five expectation indices are above their historical median, with the two price indices the most elevated, just shy of top decile readings. The headline index experienced a double-digit drop in November. In other words, the report showed optimism about current conditions but uneasiness for the months ahead.
One of the stronger categories for current conditions was employment. Number of employees wasn’t much to write home about, as the current conditions index rose a modest 0.4 points to 6.6. Expectations were also higher, reaching the most elevated reading since January. Average workweek was much stronger as the index surged from contractionary territory, up 11.8 points to 7.7. Put differently, in just one month, that index went from the bottom to the top quartile of historical readings. In fact, the index for current conditions is now the highest since May 2022.
Circling back on the spread between current conditions and expectations, it was a weird month as current conditions improved and expectations deteriorated. Below, we show the spread in those readings for the headline index. As shown, optimism has been the historical norm, as positive spreads (current conditions stronger than expectations) have been extremely rare. In fact, it’s only happened twice, the first in April 2022 and the second a few months later in July 2022. While the November reading wasn’t positive, it came close with the third-highest reading on record at -0.4.
Standardizing and averaging across all categories, the spread between the two is less extreme. Again, current condition indices are solid at the strongest levels since the summer of 2022 while expectation indices were down slightly this month. Taken as a spread, there were higher readings as recently as three months ago, including a rare positive reading in April and May. Regardless, the move upward in November still ranks in the 90th percentile since the start of the survey in 2001.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/17/25 – 11?
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“There’s no such thing as simple. Simple is hard.” – Martin Scorsese
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s looking (for now) like another positive start to the week as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are indicated higher. We say for now, because the tone was much more positive before the sun came up on the East Coast. In fact, futures on the Dow have actually moved into negative territory while the Nasdaq’s gain has been whittled down to 0.25%. The primary driver of the Nasdaq’s gain is a 4% rally in Alphabet (GOOGL) following news that Berkshire Hathaway acquired 18 million shares during Q3.
After moving up as high as 4.15% on Friday, the 10-year yield is down over 3 bps to 4.11%, crude oil is flat and barely hanging on to $60 per barrel, gold is modestly lower, and Bitcoin is higher, reversing overnight weakness that took its YTD performance negative for the year.
The week started on a mixed note in Asia. South Korean stocks rallied close to 2% as Samsung and SK Hynix rallied, but Japan and China both traded lower on geopolitical concerns after China advised citizens not to travel to Japan following comments made by the new Japanese PM Takaichi, regarding Taiwan. JGB yields in Japan also moved higher as the 20-year yield hit its highest levels since 1999.
European stocks started off the week higher but have reversed lower since the open and are now down across the board as the STOXX 600 falls 0.5%, led lower by a 1% drop in Spanish stocks.
Futures don’t look as positive as they did earlier, but as of this writing, they’re still higher, and if that pace remains the case, it will be historic for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Heading into this week, both indices have had positive returns on the first trading day of the week for ten straight weeks, which was one short of each index’s respective record streak from July 2020 coming out of the Covid crash lows.
Within the Nasdaq, there’s been some bifurcation in returns lately. On a YTD basis, the ten largest stocks in the index are all still up, but the range of returns varies widely. Palantir (PLTR) easily leads the group with a gain of over 130%, but three others in the top ten are still up at least 40% YTD. Last week, though, returns were much more scattered. Led lower by Tesla’s (TSLA) decline of nearly 6%, five of the ten largest stocks in the index were basically down at least 2%. At the other end of the spectrum, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Nvidia (NVDA) were all up over 1%.
Relative to their respective 50-DMAs, the ten largest stocks are also all over the place. Meta (META) is an extreme as it closed out the week nearly 15% below its 50-DMA, but TSLA and Netflix (NFLX) are also more than 5% below their 50-DMAs as well. Meanwhile, two stocks in the S&P 500 – Alphabet (GGOGL) and AAAPL) – are more than 5% above their 50-DMAs.
Brunch Reads – 11/16/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Fed’s First Steps: The Federal Reserve officially opened on November 16, 1914, marking the start of a new central banking system designed to stabilize the US economy. Its creation came after decades of financial panics, especially the Panic of 1907, which showed how vulnerable the country was without a central authority to manage money and support banks during stress.
At the time of its opening, the Fed’s main job was to provide an “elastic currency,” act as a lender of last resort to banks, and make the financial system less prone to sudden collapses. The twelve regional Reserve Banks began issuing Federal Reserve Notes and offering short-term lending to member banks, giving the country its first coordinated monetary framework.
Over the years, the Fed’s responsibilities expanded well beyond its original mandate. The Great Depression pushed it into more active monetary policy, post-war reforms gave it a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment, and modern crises, from the 1970s inflation period to 2008 and the pandemic, led to new tools like open-market operations, emergency lending programs, and large-scale asset purchases.
Today, the Federal Reserve plays a central role in the global financial system. It sets interest rates, regulates major banks, oversees payment systems, and steps in during periods of economic or market stress. Even with its expanded powers, the core purpose remains the same as it was on day one: to keep the US financial system stable and functioning during good times and bad.
Education
Harvard Says It’s Handing Out Too Many A’s. Students Are Fighting Back. (WSJ)
Harvard is facing a blowup over grade inflation, with a new report saying too many students are getting A’s and not enough real evaluation is happening. Students say they’re already stretched thin and feel blindsided by the idea that their hard-won grades are suddenly a problem, while faculty worry that tougher standards will scare students away from their classes. The fight has turned into a bigger question about what academic rigor should look like at an elite school. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – Rolling Over – 11/14/25
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. While stocks eked out gains this week, it was a turbulent ride and under the hood some of the biggest winners this year are under major pressure. That’s not just true of the riskiest and most aggressively priced stocks, as crypto has taken hits along with precious metals. Even the juggernaut AI narrative is being tested, with surging credit spreads that represent market skepticism about the epic capex binge under way. US economic data remains scarce but we got lots of updates from China this week showing a surprising slowdown in that economy. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve has sounded the hawkish siren all week and markets are moving to reflect less support than previously expected.
