Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/8/25 – In the Middle
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“Time lost can never be recovered.” – Erik Larson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
In terms of economic activity, last week’s ISM Services report was better than expected and firmly in growth territory at 52.0, but the ISM Manufacturing and August payrolls reports both missed expectations, lending some credence to the idea that the economy is showing signs of slowing. This week, the focus will shift to inflation with Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI reports for August. Secondary indicators of inflation have shown some upward pressure, so the market is clearly more concerned with these indicators coming in hot. How hot is the question? While a September cut next week is likely a done deal, the pace of cuts moving forward from there will hinge in large part on how ‘bad’ the inflation data is. Come Thursday morning, the market will either be only thinking about stagflation or three cuts between now and year-end.
It’s been a slow start to the week stateside, and the only economic report on the calendar this morning is the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, and the focus of that will be inflation expectations. Futures are modestly higher, along with crude oil, gold, and crypto.
Asian equities started off the week positive. The Nikkei rallied 1.5% closing just shy of a new high, while China was up a little less than 0.5%. Japanese GDP for Q2 came in better than expected, and China’s trade surplus handily beat expectations.
In Europe, equities kicked off the week on a positive note. The STOXX 600 is up about 0.3% as Spain and Germany lead the way higher. Investor sentiment from Sentix came in weaker than expected and declined modestly from August, but Industrial Production in Germany managed to exceed forecasts with a slightly better than expected increase.
Last week was literally a middle-of-the-road week for the S&P 500. As shown in the snapshot of the ETFs tracking the equity markets of each of the G7 countries, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s decline of 0.26% from the close on 8/28 (due to last Monday’s Labor Day holiday) was right in the middle relative to the other six country ETFs. Canada (EWC) was the big winner of the group with a gain of 1.47% while every other ETF traded lower. Performance in the UK (EWU) and Japan (EWJ) was less bad than the US, while Germany (EWG) and Italy (EWI) both declined over 1%, and France (EWQ) fell 0.79%.
With respect to their trading ranges, Germany is the only country in the G7 trading at oversold levels, while France is the only other one trading below its 50-DMA. At the other end of the spectrum, the US and the three other countries that outperformed it last week are all at overbought or ‘extreme’ overbought levels (2+ standard deviations above their 50-DMAs).
While the US was right in the middle of the road last week, with its 10.44% YTD gain, it is still easily the weakest performer among the G7. In fact, the next closest performer is Japan with a gain of 18% while Italy is up over 40%!
Brunch Reads – 9/7/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Stars, Stripes, and Sam: On September 7, 1813, Uncle Sam was born as the nickname of the United States. Uncle Sam, the tall, stern figure in a top hat and star-spangled suit, is one of America’s most enduring symbols, and his origins trace back to the War of 1812. A meat packer in Troy, New York, by the name of Samuel Wilson, supplied barrels of beef to the US Army. Each shipment carried the initials “US” to mark government property, but soldiers joked that it really stood for “Uncle Sam,” since Wilson was well-known in the community. The nickname spread quickly, and before long, “Uncle Sam” became a stand-in for the government itself.
The cartoon version took shape much later. In the mid-1800s, political cartoonists like Thomas Nast gave Uncle Sam a face and personality, drawing him as a lanky, bearded man draped in stars and stripes. By World War I, artist James Montgomery Flagg gave him the look that stuck: finger pointed at the viewer, top hat, and striped pants on the famous “I Want YOU” recruitment poster. From then on, Uncle Sam wasn’t just a local nickname but the face of America and patriotism.
AI & Technology
AI stethoscope could detect heart conditions in seconds (BBC News)
British researchers tested AI-powered stethoscopes on more than 12,000 patients and found they could flag heart failure, valve disease, and abnormal rhythms far earlier than traditional exams. The handheld device records heart sounds and electrical signals, then uses cloud-based AI trained on tens of thousands of cases to spot subtle warning signs doctors often miss. After showing patients were up to three times more likely to get timely diagnoses, the NHS is preparing to expand the rollout across the UK. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – Rotation – 9/5/25
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The tape has been heavy for growth stocks for a few weeks now, especially AI names, but that hasn’t stopped investors from rotating into other areas of the market that had been doing poorly up until mid-August. Read our thoughts on recent market action and where we might go from here in this week’s report.
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: ServiceTitan (TTAN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers ServiceTitan’s (TTAN) Q2 2026 earnings call.
ServiceTitan (TTAN) is a cloud software platform built for contractors in the trades, including HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, and commercial services. Its tools manage everything from scheduling and dispatch to marketing, payments, and customer communication. What’s impressive is how deeply it integrates into a contractor’s workflow, making it essentially the “operating system” for the trades. By layering in AI through Titan Intelligence and its suite of Pro products, ServiceTitan gives insight into how automation is transforming small and large service businesses alike. The company serves both mom-and-pop shops and major enterprises like Roto-Rooter. In Q2 FY26, ServiceTitan posted 25% revenue growth to $242M, with subscription revenue up 27% and usage revenue up 23%, boosted by stronger on-platform payments and $22.9B gross transaction value. AI and automation stole the spotlight: a Gulfshore customer achieved the first fully automated job, from ad click to payment, without human intervention until the technician arrived. Enterprise growth accelerated with Roto-Rooter signing on, while commercial expansion gained traction as new construction management features roll out. Roofing momentum grew with ABC Supply integration and insurance workflow automation. Residential HVAC was softer on tough comps versus last year’s record heat, but non-HVAC trades and commercial delivered strength. The company’s triple play earnings pushed the stock as much as 12% higher on 9/5…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Lululemon (LULU)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Lululemon’s (LULU) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Lululemon (LULU) is a maker of premium athletic and lifestyle apparel, best known for yoga, running, training, and performance wear. The brand built its reputation on fabric quality and fit, cultivating a deeply loyal guest base and a membership program that now counts about 30 million members. With nearly 800 global stores and a fast-growing digital channel, Lululemon serves a wide demographic, from high-performance athletes to casual wear consumers, and provides insight into the health of discretionary spending, activewear trends, and brand-driven loyalty in retail. Q2 EPS beat expectations at $3.10, but revenue of $2.5B grew just 6.5% YoY and fell short of estimates, leading to a full-year outlook cut. Management blamed tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption (~220 bps margin hit, ~$240M) and US weakness, where lounge and casual categories (~40% of mix) are showing fatigue. Performance apparel remains strong, taking share despite industry declines, and new styles like Daydrift and BeCalm performed well. Lululemon plans to lift newness from 23% to 35% by Spring ’26, supported by a new Chief AI & Technology Officer to accelerate design and personalization. International growth showed China up 25% and new market entries in Milan, Turkey, Belgium, and India are planned. Shares fell as much as 20% on 9/5 on the weaker outlook, with shares now trading at their lowest level since March 2020…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 9/5/25 – Out of the Blue
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“Change before you’re forced to change.” – Roger Goodell
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures are in rally mode this morning ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls report at 8:30, while treasury yields are at their lows for the week. The rally in US stocks follows what has been a strong morning in Europe, as well as some solid gains in Asia.
Earnings season may be mostly in the rearview mirror, but some reports are still trickling in, and last night saw a very disappointing report from Lululemon (LULU). While the athletic apparel maker reported better-than-expected earnings on inline revenues, full-year earnings guidance was slashed by 10%. While the stock was only trading at 14 times earnings heading into the report, investors are not taking kindly to the lowered guidance. In pre-market trading, shares of LULU are down roughly 20% to their lowest level since March 2020. Earlier this year, the stock was trading as high as $420. It’s at $166 now!
Taking into account this morning’s decline, LULU now ranks as the S&P 500’s worst-performing stock on a YTD basis and is one of just four stocks in the index that have lost more than half of their value. The other three are The Trade Desk (TTD), Centene (CNC), and Gartner (IT). Along with those four stocks, another 14 are down over 30%, including Deckers Outdoors (DECK), Align Technology (ALGN), and Chipotle (CMG). There was a time when these stocks were among the biggest highfliers, but nowhere is the phrase “what have you done for me lately” more applicable than in the stock market.
LULU’s decline has been painful, but it has also been part of a broader decline in athletic apparel companies. While none of them are down anywhere nearly as much as LULU, shares of Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UA), and VF Corp (VFC) are all in the red YTD. With a “workout” these days now involving nothing more than a jab in the thigh, you don’t need yoga pants and a pair of sneakers to do that!
Enough of the bad news. If we’re going to dwell on the worst-performing stocks in the market this year, we have to give equal time to the top performers, so the table below shows the 15 stocks in the S&P 500 that are up at least 50% YTD. You may think that the market is being led entirely by tech, but six sectors are represented on the list of the 15 biggest winners. Tech is tied for the lead in terms of representation, but four stocks from the Industrials sector are also represented, including GE Vernona (GEV) and General Electric (GE). As hard as it would have been to imagine a couple of years ago seeing LULU, DECK, ALGN, and CMG on the list of biggest losers, it would have been just as hard to think a stock with “GE” in its name would ever be on the biggest winners list, let alone two!
At the top of the list of biggest winners were four stocks that have already doubled this year – Palantir (PLTR), Seagate (STX), Newmont (NEM), and Western Digital (WDC). Seeing PLTR at the top of the list isn’t surprising, but STX, NEM, and WDC? Where did they come from? Goldminers aren’t exactly the sexiest stocks in the market, and when most investors think of tech stocks, STX and WDC are probably two of the last stocks that come to mind. It just goes to show that the biggest winners in the market often come from places seemingly out of the blue where the fewest investors are looking.
The Closer – Labor Data Day, Trade, ISM – 9/4/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after starting out with a review of the latest claims and trade data (pages 1 and 2), we review more labor market readings in the form of Indeed job postings (pages 3 and 4) ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report. We then review the latest service PMIs and offer one final note on the confirmation hearing of Stephan Miran (page 5).
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: American Eagle (AEO)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers American Eagle’s (AEO) Q2 2025 earnings call.
American Eagle (AEO) is a US-based specialty retailer known for its American Eagle and Aerie brands, catering primarily to teens and young adults. American Eagle focuses on casual apparel, with denim as its core category, while Aerie has built a strong following in intimates, activewear, and loungewear. The company serves a broad customer base through its 1,000+ stores and digital channels, with campaigns and collaborations that often tap into cultural icons, giving insight into consumer demand trends, fashion cycles, and the spending patterns of younger shoppers. AEO’s ability to drive brand buzz through celebrities like Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce makes it a barometer for how pop culture and fashion intersect. AEO posted $1.28B in revenue, its second-highest Q2 ever, with traffic up across brands. Aerie rebounded with 3% comps, fueled by intimates and OFFLINE activewear, while American Eagle stabilized with strength in women’s jeans, dresses, and men’s tops. Marketing campaigns with Sweeney and Kelce generated 40B impressions and 700K+ new customers, boosting August comps into positive territory and driving the best Labor Day in company history. Tariffs loom as an approximate $70M H2 headwind, mitigated through sourcing shifts and vendor negotiations. AEO shares surged more than 35% on 9/4 after beating EPS and revenue estimates…
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) is a discount retailer operating thousands of small-box stores that focus on low-price consumables, seasonal goods, and discretionary items. Its hallmark “everything for $1.25” model has evolved into a multi-price strategy, now offering items up to $5. The company serves a broad demographic, including budget-conscious families, college students, and increasingly higher-income households seeking value and convenience. Dollar Tree provides insight into consumer trade-down behavior, resilience under cost pressures, and shifting retail dynamics in a tariff-sensitive environment. The company delivered Q2 sales of $4.6B (+12.3% YoY) with comps up 6.5%, balanced between traffic (+3%) and ticket (+3.4%). EPS of $0.77 topped expectations as tariff impacts were delayed into later quarters. The company highlighted the rollout of its expanded multi-price assortment, now in 3,600 stores and on track for 5,000 by year-end, which is drawing more $100K+ households, two-thirds of new customers. Uber Eats integration at 8,500 stores provides access to 25M younger, incremental shoppers. Tariffs remain volatile (China ~30%, Vietnam/India higher), but management cited its “five levers” of mitigation. Strong supply chain execution and improved store conditions set the stage for holiday readiness. Despite better-than-expected results, the stock fell 8.4% on 9/3…
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