Thankful Investors — Last 5 Years
It’s a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, so over the next few days, we plan on writing about some of the stocks that investors can be most thankful for. In this post, we’re highlighting the 25 best-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 on a total return basis over the last five years. In the table below we rank them from 1st to 25th and show how much a $1,000 investment in each stock five years ago (on 11/25/19) would be worth today. Below the table, we provide a one-sentence blurb generated by AI that describes what each company does.
At the top of the list, above even NVIDIA (NVDA), is Alpha Metallurgical (AMR), which mines and produces coal for steel production and power generation! A $1,000 investment in AMR five years ago would be worth more than $34,000 today!
NVDA ranks second, turning $1,000 five years ago into more than $25,000 today, followed by energy drink maker Celsius (CELH), MARA Holdings (MARA), and GameStop (GME). Other notables on the list of big winners over the last five years include Tesla (TSLA) at #7, Super Micro (SMCI) at #8, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) at #12, and Axon Enterprise (AXON) at #14. You’ll also probably recognize companies like Arista Networks (ANET), elf Beauty (ELF), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Vistra (VST), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), and Eli Lilly (LLY).
For a quick description of each company listed above, we asked AI to give us its best one-sentence blurb:
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): A global specialty retailer focused on casual apparel and accessories for young adults and kids, known for its trendy fashion and lifestyle branding.
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): A leading producer of metallurgical coal, used primarily in steel production, with operations focused on mining and processing high-quality coal.
- Antero Resources (AR): An independent energy company specializing in the exploration and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil in the Appalachian Basin.
- Arista Networks (ANET): Provides cloud networking solutions, including switches, routers, and software, for data centers and enterprise networking environments.
- Axon Enterprise (AXON): Known for its Taser devices, body-worn cameras, and cloud-based evidence management software, serving public safety and law enforcement agencies.
- Builders FirstSource (BLDR): Supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders and remodelers in the U.S.
- Celsius Holdings (CELH): A beverage company offering fitness-oriented energy drinks and health-focused functional beverages for active consumers.
- Comfort Systems USA (FIX): Provides mechanical services such as heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and electrical contracting to commercial and industrial customers.
- CONSOL Energy (CEIX): A coal and energy company producing high-quality bituminous coal for electricity generation and industrial applications.
- Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): Designs and markets footwear and accessories under brands like UGG, Teva, and HOKA ONE ONE, targeting performance and lifestyle consumers.
- e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): A cosmetics company specializing in affordable, high-quality makeup and skincare products available globally.
- Eli Lilly (LLY): A leading pharmaceutical company developing innovative medicines in areas such as diabetes, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience.
- GameStop (GME): A retailer of video games, consumer electronics, and collectibles, with a focus on digital gaming and e-commerce.
- Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): A digital asset technology company focused on cryptocurrency mining, particularly Bitcoin, leveraging blockchain technology.
- Mr. Cooper Group (COOP): A mortgage servicer and lender offering home loan solutions, refinancing, and servicing for homeowners and buyers.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): A technology company best known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in gaming, AI, data centers, and autonomous vehicles.
- Powell Industries (POWL): Manufactures electrical equipment and systems for the management and distribution of electricity in industrial and utility markets.
- Quanta Services (PWR): Provides infrastructure services to the energy and communications sectors, including construction and maintenance of electric power and telecom systems.
- Range Resources (RRC): An independent oil and natural gas company focused on exploration and production in the Appalachian Basin, particularly natural gas.
- SiTime Corporation (SITM): Designs and manufactures precision timing devices, including silicon MEMS-based oscillators, used in electronics.
- Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): A grocery retailer emphasizing fresh, natural, and organic products, catering to health-conscious consumers.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Develops high-performance, energy-efficient server and storage solutions for data centers, enterprise IT, and cloud computing.
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): A global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy products, and battery technology, with a mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
- Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): Manages land and mineral rights in Texas, generating revenue from oil and gas royalties, leases, and easements.
- Vistra Corp. (VST): An energy company offering electricity generation, retail services, and renewable power solutions across the U.S. through its integrated platform.
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Chart of the Day: Yale Crash Confidence Update
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/25/24 – Positive Start to a Short Week
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“If you place your head in a lion’s mouth, then you cannot complain one day if he happens to bite it off.” – Agatha Christie
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Investors have a lot to be thankful for this year, and a holiday-shortened week after what has been an eventful year so far is no doubt one of them. The economic and earnings calendars are relatively light this week, but Tuesday will be a relatively busy week for earnings, while Wednesday will be a busier day for economic data as government agencies look to get the reports out ahead of what, for many, will be a long weekend.
In Asia, Japan and India were both up over 1% while Chinese stocks saw modest losses. In Europe, it’s been a mixed tone, with the STOXX 600 basically unchanged. Here in the US, equity futures are higher, and treasury yields are lower in part due to Scott Bessent’s nomination as Treasury Secretary.
The last week of November has historically been positive for equities, and recent history hasn’t deviated from that trend. The S&P 500 has notched gains in the last week of this month in six of the previous seven years. The only down year was in 2021 when the S&P 500 fell over 2.6% as investors feared a resurgence of Covid from the Omicron wave and Fed Chair Powell sent a message to the market that the Fed was no longer not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates. While the S&P 500 was near record highs heading into the week, both factors sent stocks plunging, and the S&P 500 fell 2.6% for its fifth worst last week of November in the post-WWII period and the worst since 1987. Outside of 2021, though, you have to go back to 2005 to find another year when the S&P 500 dropped over 1% in the last week of November.
Overall, the S&P 500’s median performance during the last week of November since 1945 has been a gain of 0.32% with positive returns 58.2% of the time which is nearly twice the average for all one-week periods since 1945. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in years when the S&P 500 has been up 20%+ YTD heading into the last week of November, the median gain has been more in line with the historical average (0.19%). When the S&P 500 was overbought (1+ standard deviation above its 50-DMA) heading into the last week of the month, the median performance was a decline of 0.20% with gains less than half of the time. Additionally, when the S&P 500 was up 20%+ YTD and overbought, the median performance during the last week was also a decline of 0.18% with gains half of the time.
None of these trends suggest that declines this week are likely, but for a week that has historically been considered one of the most positive weeks of the year, the setup this year is not necessarily as bullish.
Brunch Reads – 11/24/24
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Ruby’s Revenge: On November 24th, 1963 Jack Ruby killed Lee Harvey Oswald two days after Oswald allegedly assassinated President John F. Kennedy. The incident unfolded in the basement of the Dallas Police Department, where Oswald was being transferred to the county jail.
Jack Ruby, a nightclub owner with a flair for the dramatic, pushed through the crowd of journalists and officers, pulled out a .38-caliber revolver, and fired a single shot into Oswald’s abdomen at point-blank range. The scene was chaotic, officers wrestled Ruby to the ground, reporters scrambled to process what they’d just witnessed, and Oswald, clutching his stomach, fell to the floor. He was rushed to Parkland Memorial Hospital, the same hospital where Kennedy had been pronounced dead, but Oswald succumbed to his injuries shortly after.
Ruby’s actions ignited a whirlwind of speculation. Some believed he acted out of grief and rage over Kennedy’s murder, claiming he wanted to spare Jackie Kennedy the anguish of a trial. Others suspected a deeper conspiracy. Questions lingered about Ruby’s connections to organized crime and whether his actions were meant to silence Oswald.
The assassination of Oswald, coming so soon after Kennedy’s death, cemented the weekend as one of the most shocking and pivotal in American history. The live broadcast etched the moment into the nation’s collective memory, sparking debates and theories that continue today.
Education
The Bosses Who Don’t Care About Your Ivy League Degree (WSJ)
Once considered golden tickets, Ivy League degrees are losing some of their shine in the job market. Some are turning away from elite school grads, saying they often lack real-world problem-solving skills. Big firms like McKinsey are now using creative hiring methods, like problem-solving games, to find talent from less traditional schools. While some alumni still see their degrees as badges of hard work, there’s a growing sense that prestige alone isn’t enough anymore. [Link]
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/22/24
The Bespoke Report – 11/22/24 – What, Me Worry?
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we focus on the rotation in stocks across different sectors, some possible trends to be concerned about, and much more.
Chinese Stocks in Free Fall
In the US, equities have staged a solid rally this month with most of the move occurring after the election. Elsewhere in the world, equities haven’t exactly shared in the gains. Chinese stocks, using the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) as a proxy, surged throughout September and into early October as stimulus measures were announced. After a massive 42.7% gain from the end of August through the closing high on October 7th, MCHI reversed lower and was down 14.5% by Election Day. Headed into the election, MCHI actually stabilized somewhat, but post election it has taken another leg lower as it is now down 9% since then and 22.2% since the October high. As shown below, the ETF is also now in no-man’s-land trading smack in the middle of its 200 and 50-DMAs with gaps to fill from the September post-stimulus run up.
Although MCHI is pulling back, it is at least still higher than it was prior to stimulus announcements back in September. The same cannot be said for some of the country’s most prominent stocks. As shown below, Baidu (BIDU) and Alibaba (BABA) have now both round-tripped over the past couple of months. That also leaves them at interesting standpoints from a technical perspective. Starting with BIDU, the stock has been in a steady downtrend throughout the past year and this recent turn lower leaves it testing support at 52-week lows. For BABA, the long term trend is a bit more friendly with a series of higher lows throughout the year. However, BABA has also been on a ruthless stretch of declines including a daily loss in six of the last seven sessions. Whereas BIDU is testing support at 52-week lows, BABA is testing support at its 200-DMA.
Tesla (TSLA) on Top Since Trump’s Election Victory
Earlier we provided a snapshot of asset class performance since Election Day using our key ETF matrix. Diving a little deeper, below is a look at the change in market cap across S&P 1500 sectors since Trump’s victory on 11/5. As shown, the Financials sector has thus far been the biggest beneficiary with a collective increase in market cap of $608.4 billion across all of its stocks. Technology ranks second with an increase of $434.9 billion, followed by Consumer Discretionary at $335 billion. On the flip side, two sectors have seen a decline in market cap since Trump won. Real Estate is down very marginally at $2.3 billion, while Health Care has seen its market cap drop by a much more significant $167.9 billion.
Below is a look at the individual stocks that have seen the biggest jump in market cap since Election Day. Is it any surprise that Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) has seen by far the biggest jump at $283 billion? Behind Tesla is NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) with respective gains of $160 billion and $77 billion, however, their share prices are up less than 3%. These two names are simply so big that the smallest moves now result in massive swings in market cap. Rounding out the top five are JP Morgan (JPM) with an increase of $66 billion and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) at $58 billion.
In addition to these five big winners, other notables on the list include names like Netflix (NFLX), Walmart (WMT), Disney (DIS), Blackstone (BX), Costco (COST), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Interactive Brokers (IBKR).
Below is a list of the biggest winners by percentage change since Election Day. The two best performers remain the two private prison stocks — GEO Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW). Other interesting names on the list of biggest post-Election winners include United Fire (UFCS), Grocery Outlet (GO) and Hertz (HTZ).
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Asset Class/Key ETF Performance Since Election Day 2024
We’re just under three weeks past Election Day 2024 and below is an updated look at the performance of various asset classes since then using our key ETF matrix.
While it may feel like the stock market has gone gangbusters since the close on 11/5, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up just over 3%, while the mega-cap Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up even less at 2.5%.
Both growth and value ETFs are up similar amounts, while currency ETFs like FXB, FXE, and FXY are all down more than 2% as the dollar has rallied.
Looking at sectors, Financials (XLF) is up the most with a gain of 8.3% followed closely by Energy (XLE) at +8.04%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ranks as the third best sector since 11/5 with a gain of 7.5%. On the downside, Health Care (XLV) is solidly in the red with a drop of 2.4%, and while it’s not one of the eleven major sectors, the semis ETF (SMH) is also down 1.7%.
It has been quite the bloodbath in international stocks since Trump’s victory on 11/5. Five of the major country ETFs are down more than 6%: China (MCHI), Hong Kong (EWH), France (EWQ), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP). Israel (EIS) is one of the few country ETFs that has gained along with Australia (EWA) and Canada (EWC).
We’ve seen some divergence between commodity ETFs since Election Day. The agriculture ETF (DBA) and natural gas (UNG) are both up solidly, but gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and oil (USO) are all in the red.
Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp — 2025 Dates
Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp is back for 2025! Reserve a student’s spot with a $100 deposit today.
If you or any of your friends or colleagues have children, grandchildren, nieces, or nephews, please take note!
Here at Bespoke we’ve been following the stock market 24/7 for more than two decades, so based on the “10,000 hour” rule, we can confidently say that we are market “pros”.
At the same time, traditional education across grades K-12 doesn’t focus on the stock market, investing, and how it all works.
For years, we’ve thought about addressing the “stock market literacy gap” for students across the country. Now, we’ve come up with a plan!
We have two one-week camps currently planned for students during Summer 2025: June 23-27 and July 21-25
Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp runs for five days from Monday-Friday with each live Zoom class lasting roughly 75 minutes. Camp is fun, engaging, and interactive, and by the end of the week, students will have a basic understanding of how the stock market and investing works! If a live class is missed, recordings are available.
We don’t have to tell you how valuable knowing this information at a young age can be! Instead of kids playing video games, scrolling through TikTok, or messing around on Snapchat, we think our five-day Stock Market Camp will pay major dividends down the road!
LOCK IN A SPOT FOR ONE OF OUR 2025 BESPOKE STOCK MARKET CAMPS TODAY!
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