Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 10/31/24
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Reality is an undefeated champion.” – Jeff Bezos
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
As of 7:45 AM ET this morning, S&P 500 futures were trading down roughly 0.75% as both of the mega-caps that reported after the close yesterday trade lower. Below is a snapshot of SPY trading on Halloween (10/31) since the ETF began trading back in 1993. An opening gap lower of more than 0.66% would be SPY’s biggest open lower on Halloween since 2011.
A few sectors have really taken it on the chin over the last week: Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities. As shown in the snapshot below from our Trend Analyzer tool, Health Care and Consumer Staples are currently trading in extreme oversold territory, while the Utilities sector is down 3.7% since last Thursday and nearing its 50-day moving average. At the same time, we’ve seen both Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services go in the other direction and trade at or near overbought territory.
The Closer – META & MSFT, GDP, Home Sales – 10/30/24
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a dive into all the latest earnings including results from Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Starbucks (SBUX) and more (pages 1 and 2). We then review the first update of Q3 GDP data (page 3) in addition to a look at the rest of today’s economic data (page 4). We finish with an update on petroleum supplies (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 10/30/24
Chart of the Day – Super Micro (SMCI) Falls From Grace
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 10/30/24
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.” – Otto von Bismarck
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Election Day is now less than a week away, and for those trying to keep up, below is a snapshot of where the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls stand nationally and in key battleground states this morning compared to how they looked on this same day during the 2020 and 2016 Election Cycles.
As you can see, both Biden and Clinton were up significantly in most battleground states at this point in 2020 and 2016, while Trump is currently slightly ahead in all of the key states except for Michigan, which flipped back to Harris in the last day.
There are any number of ways that either side can analyze or spin the current polling numbers, prediction tools, and betting markets at this point, so we’re simply providing the numbers from RCP and leaving it at that. Anyone that feels confident that they know how things will turn out should probably just sit back and eat a slice of humble pie.
As shown below, the S&P 500 (SPY) has been mostly trending sideways over the last couple of weeks after a strong start to the month.
The sideways action has allowed the S&P’s 10-day advance/decline line to cool down and move back into negative territory.
The Closer – Job Postings, Home Prices, Stellar 7s – 10/29/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off tonight with an overview of the latest earnings (page 1). We then dive into the latest labor market data in the form of the JOLTS report (pages 2 and 3) and Indeed job postings (pages 4 and 5). Next, we check in on home prices (page 6) before closing out with a rundown on today’s very strong 7-year note auction (page 7).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 10/29/24
It’s a MEGA Earnings Week
The upcoming election is top of mind for most people right now, but investors first have mega-cap earnings to deal with this week.
There are currently six $1+ trillion market cap companies in the US, and as shown below, they now have a combined market cap of more than $15 trillion. For comparison, at the market’s low in March 2009 during the Financial Crisis, the market cap of the entire S&P 500 was just over $6 trillion.
Ten years ago these six companies (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA) had a combined market cap of less than $1.5 trillion, so they have essentially “ten-bagged” (+1,000%) their market caps in the last decade!
The Tools and Custom Portfolios sections of our website let subscribers analyze and monitor the stocks and ETFs they care about most. You can easily start a watchlist that lets you track things like price charts, overbought/oversold levels, and earnings info for baskets of stocks, and below is a snapshot of price charts for a quick watchlist we made of the five mega-caps that are reporting earnings this week.
At the moment, all five are trading above their 50-day moving averages, but Meta (META) is the only one that’s currently trading above where it was when the group peaked back in July. The last few months have definitely been a rest period for the mega-caps, and it will be interesting to see if Q3 earnings results this week can wake them from their slumber.
As shown below, Alphabet (GOOG) is the first of the mega-caps to report, with numbers expected after the close today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) will report tomorrow after the close, followed by Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) after the close on Thursday.
On average, the five mega-caps reporting this week are up 28.5% year-to-date, with MSFT up the least at +13.7% and META up the most at +63.6%. Amazingly, these five stocks are projected to report roughly $430 billion in combined sales for Q3.
Subscribers can monitor expected earnings report dates for stocks on their watchlists right on our website as well. Below is how that looks for the five mega-caps reporting this week:
In last night’s Closer, we did a deep dive on historical Q3 earnings reactions for the mega-caps reporting this week.
Since Alphabet (GOOG) is the first of the mega-caps to report tonight, below is a look at some of the earnings info available to members on our website. One nugget we found interesting is that Q3 has historically been GOOG’s best quarter when it comes to how the stock price reacts to its earnings report. As we’ve highlighted in yellow, GOOG has averaged a one-day gain of 3.15% in reaction to the twenty Q3 earnings reports it has released since going public. (Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
You can gain access to all of the tools referenced above with a Bespoke All Access (Institutional) membership. Sign up using our Election Day Special to get a 47-day trial for $47, then 20% off for life!
