Bespoke Report – 11/1/24 – What The…
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we review the bull market turning two, sector performance driving the rally, earnings season, the election, sentiment, and much more.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/1/24
The Triple Play Report — 11/1/24
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 28 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Reddit (RDDT) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play, and the company now has three triple plays since its IPO back in March. The stock exploded higher by 42% in reaction to the triple play on 10/30. RDDT shareholders could not have asked for a much better start out of the gate as the stock now trades around $115-$120 in comparison to its IPO price of $34 per share.
Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, RDDT results have been near flawless relative to expectations so far despite there being only three quarters worth of data. It has been rare to see this from IPOs lately.
Reddit is a social media/news aggregation platform that allows users to share and discuss content. Some of the fastest ways to get information now is through platforms like X or Reddit. Reddit users have found their communities to be their go-to place for often unfiltered insights and recommendations. On Reddit’s recent conference call, they said AI has been a major factor for growth, allowing the company to drive significant non-English user engagement with translation. You can read more about RDDT and the 27 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Amazon (AMZN), Bezos, and $200 Bucks
Amazon (AMZN) was up over 6% on Friday, rallying behind a solid earnings report Thursday night. However, shares are currently bumping up against resistance around the $200 level. In July, the stock reached these same levels but outside of a handful of intraday blips, repeatedly failed to push above $200.
The selling pressure around the $200 level in July coincided with some major insider activity. In March, it was reported that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos planned to sell up to 25 million shares of AMZN by the end of 2025. When AMZN kept unsuccessfully trying to break through $200 in July, we quickly found out why. Insider transaction filings showed that Bezos seemingly had a limit order to sell millions of shares above $200. As you can see below, from July 2nd through July 11th, Bezos sold millions of shares a day at an average price just above $200. On July 11th, the last day of reported selling from Bezos, the stock no longer had enough buyers to keep up with Bezos’ sell orders and eventually traded lower. Since then, there have been no more reported Bezos sales, and the stock price didn’t get near $200 again…until today.
As mentioned earlier, AMZN shares reacted positively to earnings after the close last night and traded up 6%+ in reaction to the news. That took shares up near $200 at the open this morning for the first time since July 11th — when Bezos last reported a sale.
Based on AMZN’s intraday action today, it looks like Bezos still has a live $200 limit sell order because the stock stalled out at $200 once again and couldn’t break through.
Back in July, Bezos managed to unload more than 8 million of the 25 million shares he reportedly plans on selling. The stock has traded over 80 million shares today, but only around 5 million shares have traded at $200 or higher, so we’ll see how many more shares he managed to unload when his next insider sales report gets filed.
For now, it looks like $200 is going to remain stiff resistance until the Bezos shares clear.
Bespoke Market Calendar — November 2024
Please click the image below to view our November 2024 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 11/1/24
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The liabilities are always 100 percent good. It’s the assets you have to worry about.” – Charlie Munger
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While yesterday ended up being the worst Halloween trading day since 2011, the S&P 500 still ended the month with a year-to-date gain of 19.6%. That’s good enough for 2024 to be the best Election Year through October since 1936!
The S&P has pulled back from overbought levels this week and now sits just above its 50-day moving average. The S&P’s 10-day advance/decline line is now oversold, however, so market internals suggest a market that’s a bit weaker underneath the surface. If the 10-day A/D line falls a little further, we’ll start looking for an oversold bounce.
The Closer – More Megas, October Decile, PCE – 10/31/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a review of the latest major Tech earnings from Intel (INTC), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL) (page 1). We then check in on decile performance for the month of October (page 2) before reviewing the latest economic data including PCE (page 3), the MNI Chicago PMI and ECI (page 4), and state level jobless claims (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Matrix of Economic Indicators – 10/31/24
Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum. We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.
To access our newest Matrix of Economic Indicators, start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional now!
