Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/17/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“A man has cause for regret only when he sows and no one reaps.” – Charles Goodyear
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a strong bounce-back day yesterday following Friday’s 1% drop, US equity futures are down slightly ahead of today’s open on relatively little news. As shown below, market internals remain overbought, but not by much.
Looking at sectors, Energy now has the highest percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages at 91.3%, and the Energy sector’s valuation relative to the last ten years is on the low side compared to the rest of the market. Financials and Technology currently have the highest valuations relative to readings over the last ten years.
The Closer – Iran & Reconciliation, Crude, Empire – 6/16/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with commentary regarding the situation in Iran in addition to progress in the Senate’s version of the budget bill (page 1). Next, we review the very volatile back-to-back sessions for crude prices (page 2) before finishing with a recap of the Empire Fed release (page 3).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 6/16/25
Chart of the Day: New Highs for Israel ETF (EIS)
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/16/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When the lambs is lost in the mountain, he said. They is cry. Sometime come the mother. Sometime the wolf.” – Cormac McCarthy, Blood Meridian
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are bouncing back pre-market to start the new trading week after a 1%+ drop last Friday. As shown below, the S&P has stabilized with less volatility over the last few weeks, giving it a chance to re-charge for an eventual breakout to new highs. The index needs to gain about 2.9% from its current level to make a new all-time high.
Brunch Reads – 6/13/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
King John Caves: On June 15, 1215, King John of England put his seal on the Magna Carta at Runnymede, a field west of London, after months of pressure from a group of rebellious barons. His rule had become deeply unpopular due to high taxes, failed military campaigns in France, and arbitrary justice. The barons had taken up arms and even captured London, forcing John to negotiate.
The Magna Carta was essentially a peace agreement. It laid out a set of demands from the barons that aimed to limit the king’s power, especially in taxation and legal matters. It required the king to follow certain rules, like obtaining consent for new taxes and guaranteeing that free men had a right to a fair trial.
Though the document was meant to prevent civil war, it didn’t succeed immediately. John asked the Pope to annul it just weeks later, and fighting broke out again. Still, the Magna Carta symbolized the idea that rulers are not above the law. Over time, parts of it were reissued and expanded, influencing future legal systems, including the US Constitution and the development of modern democracies.
AI & Technology
The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity (Apple)
Even though new models are getting better at showing their work, this study finds that their “reasoning” starts to fall apart once puzzles hit a certain level of difficulty. The authors built a controlled testing environment to isolate and study how these models think, not just whether they get the right answer, and what they found is that the extra thinking steps often don’t help past a point. Strikingly, models actually put in less effort on harder problems, suggesting that today’s reasoning models might still be more surface-level than they seem. It is interesting to note that this study comes from Apple, who has generally been perceived to be behind the AI race. [Link]
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B.I.G. Tips – Energy and Defense Fly
The Bespoke Report – 6/13/25 – There’s Always Something
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we cover everything happening across financial markets after another wild week.
Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Adobe (ADBE)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Adobe’s (ADBE) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Adobe (ADBE) is a global software leader best known for its creative and digital experience tools, including Photoshop, Acrobat, and Adobe Experience Cloud. It empowers a wide spectrum of users, from students and freelancers to enterprises, to create, manage, and optimize digital content. The company is at the forefront of AI-driven creativity through its proprietary Firefly models, which generate commercially safe content across images, video, and design. Adobe serves business professionals, consumers, marketers, and creatives, and offers a unique window into how digital content creation and personalization are evolving at scale. Adobe delivered record revenue of $5.87B (up 11% YoY), driven by strong AI adoption and innovation. Firefly content generations topped 24B, with paid Firefly subscriptions nearly doubling QoQ. Monthly active users across Acrobat and Express surpassed 700M, reflecting the convergence of productivity and creativity. Enterprise demand for GenStudio and AEP surged, with AEP subscription revenue growing over 40% YoY. Adobe’s focus on ethical, IP-safe AI continues to differentiate it, particularly amid rising scrutiny of generative content models. Despite better-than-expected results, shares of ADBE tumbled as much as almost 7% on 6/13, the company’s fourth straight decline after posting EPS and revenue beats…
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