See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“I am in a charming state of confusion.” – Ada Lovelace

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

On a Fed day, we’d normally say that wherever the futures are in the pre-market, don’t expect the market to be there after the decision is announced, let alone after Powell talks.  Based on recent history, though, volatility on Fed days has been muted. As we noted in today’s Chart of the Day, the S&P 500’s average absolute daily change on the last five Fed days has been among the most muted relative to any other rolling five Fed day period since 1994. So, maybe the muted moves in futures markets are on to something!

Outside of equities, the 10-year yield is up 2 bps and back above 4.2% as part of a global move higher yields. Crude oil prices are also up fractionally but still below $58 per barrel, while the slide in natural gas continues as prices break below $4.50.  Metal prices are all over the map as gold prices are slightly lower, while silver rallies over 1% and platinum falls over 1%. In the crypto pace, it’s also a mixed but downwardly biased morning as bitcoin falls 1%.

International markets have also been quiet overnight and this morning ahead of the Fed, as most major benchmarks saw, or are seeing, modest declines. Chinese CPI was weaker than expected, falling 0.1% versus forecasts for an increase of 0.2% while PPI in Japan was right in line with forecasts.

Warren Buffett has famously said of gold that it “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” While other precious metals like platinum and silver have more industrial uses than gold, based on public records, it has been decades since Buffett has been active in them. The primary reason Buffett has generally avoided commodities is that they are essentially a bet on future supply and demand rather than income-generating assets.

While they don’t produce income, precious metals are commodities that have produced massive capital gains this year. Gold (GLD) has rallied 60%, and those gains look modest relative to the 86.3% gain in platinum (PLTM) and the massive 109.5% gain in Silver (SLV).

For all three precious metals, the YTD gains would be enough to rank near the top of the list in terms of YTD performance. With its 109.5% gain, SLV would be the tenth-best stock in the S&P 500 this year, ahead of Intel (INTC) and behind AppLovin (APP). Nothing against AppLovin and its prospects over the next several years, but 100 years from now, which do you think has a better chance of still being around in its current form? Silver or AppLovin?

While the gains in Platinum and Gold wouldn’t crack the top ten in terms of performance, the former’s 86.3% gain would rank as number 14 in the S&P 500, while Gold would rank number 34.

Looking at the ten best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year, all of them are up by at least 100%, and all but three are from the Technology sector. The top four performing stocks have not only had triple-digit returns, but they’ve also at least tripled! Sticking to the commodities theme, three of those stocks – Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX), and Micron (MU) – all make data storage and memory products, which in the universe of the technology sector have for years been considered commodities as well.

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Lesson Number One: Don’t Underestimate The Other Guy’s Greed!” – Frank Lopez, Scarface

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Bespoke’s Paul Hickey will be on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street today at 10 AM. Make sure to check it out!

Markets remain on snooze with little conviction in either direction this morning, and while investors “waiting for the Fed” has been the excuse, is there really any question over what Powell will say and do tomorrow?  Futures are as close to unchanged as you can really get this morning, with the S&P 500 indicated to open up 1 point (0.18%) while the Nasdaq is faring “significantly” worse, down 0.06%. As we wait for the Fed, there is some economic data today. Small Business sentiment hit the tape earlier and came in modestly higher than expected, while JOLTS will hit the tape at 10 AM.

Overnight in Asia, it was a ho-hum session with the Nikkei up 0.1% while China, South Korea, and India were all down fractionally (less than 0.5%). The RBA left rates unchanged but had a hawkish tone. In Europe, the STOXX is down 0.1%.

We had a power outage at the Bespoke offices yesterday afternoon, and coincidence or not, have you seen a chart of the Utilities sector recently?  After being one of the better performing sectors this year, the sector started to fall on hard times since mid-October, to the point where in late November it broke its uptrend from the April lows. From there, the weakness in the sector picked up in intensity. The fact that longer-term interest rates have been rising hasn’t helped.

The recent weakness in the sector has also brought its relative strength versus the S&P 500 to a new low for the year. After handily outperforming during the tariff-tantrum in the Spring, the sector started performing in line with the broader market. For much of the last six months, its relative strength oscillated above and below the neutral line, but the last two weeks have seen it make a new leg lower.

Given the power demands of AI, there have been times in the last few years when Utilities have been considered a technology play, but when you compare the sector’s performance to the Technology sector, it’s not even close. Utilities have been trending lower for the last six months.

The disparity is also apparent when you compare the percentage of stocks in each sector trading above their 50-day moving averages. The Utilities are experiencing a “blackout” in this metric as not a single sector closed above its 50-DMA yesterday. That compares to more than half of stocks in the Technology sector. After some trial and error last night, Con Ed finally got the power back on in our offices last night, now they need to work on getting some power back to the sector!