The US has had an incredibly strong 2021, especially when considering the headwinds the economy faced. Supply chain constraints, labor challenges, inflation, energy shortages, high oil prices, and new COVID variants all hindered the global economy this year. Nonetheless, since the start of the year, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has rallied over 25% YTD. While the US has been able to withstand the many headwinds, the same can’t be said for the rest of the world.  The average performance for all of the other regions we looked at (Europe, Australia, Africa, Asia, and Latin America) was a loss of 3.4%. In 2021, there has been a huge divergence between the performance of developed markets and emerging markets. The US, Europe, and Australia have seen YTD gains of 15%+, while Africa, Asia, and Latin America have all seen pretty sizable declines. The US is on track to outperform both the rest of the world and emerging markets for the fourth consecutive year. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

The BLS released October results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey this morning showing a significant uptick in job openings.  Openings totaled 11.03 million in October, slightly below the record of 11.098 million from this past July.  Openings rose by 431K month over month which ranks as the biggest one-month uptick since July and is in the 94th percentile of all monthly moves.

While the JOLTS data is insightful, it is released at a decent lag. Job listings website Indeed, however, offers a higher frequency (daily) dataset with more up-to-date readings with the latest data available through November 26th.   As we discussed ahead of the JOLTS release in last night’s Closer, postings through this reading have been hitting new highs and are 57% above the February 2020 baseline reading.  That comes with acceleration in new postings being put up on the site throughout the fall, but especially so in recent weeks.

Indeed also offers a breakdown based on industry.  As shown below, there are four industries that currently have postings that are twice as high as they were pre-pandemic.  Ironically, given the fair degree of labor market slack, the human resources sector continues to top the list with postings almost 120% above the baseline level.  Loading & Stocks, Production & Manufacturing, and Software Development are the other most in-demand industries through late November.  The other end of the spectrum continues to include many reopening sensitive areas like Hospitality and Tourism (which has also been on the decline in recent weeks as shown in the next chart below), though, these too are now all above baseline levels.

As previously mentioned, Hospitality and Tourism have seen a decline in postings recently likely as a result of rising case counts. Noting a few other industries, Banking & Finance, Construction, Cleaning & Sanitation, and Food Preparation & Service have all seen an acceleration in postings.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

The S&P Case Shiller home price indices for September 2021 were released recently and showed that home prices nationally are now up 47% from their prior highs made during the housing bubble of the mid-2000s.  And notably, all 20 of the individual cities/regions tracked by S&P Case Shiller have now eclipsed their prior housing bubble highs now that Chicago has finally moved above its prior high from September 2006.  As shown below, home prices in Chicago are now 1% above those September 2006 levels.

Two cities — Dallas and Denver — have home price levels now that are 100%+ above their mid-2000 highs.  Five more cities are up at least 50% from their prior housing bubble highs — Seattle, Portland, Charlotte, San Francisco, and Boston.

You can see Chicago home price levels based on the S&P Case Shiller indices just barely eclipsing their prior highs in the chart below:

The pandemic has of course been a huge boon for home prices across the country.  Below is a look at how much home prices are up versus levels seen in February 2020 just prior to COVID.  Prices in Phoenix are up the most post-COVID at 45%, followed by San Diego and Tampa at 35%.  Las Vegas, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, and Seattle have all seen prices rise by 30%+, while the remaining cities are all up between 19% and 27%.  Chicago, New York, and DC have seen home prices rise the least, but even these three cities are up ~20% since COVID hit.  Like this type of analysis?  See more of it with a Bespoke Premium membership.  Click here to learn more and start a two-week trial.