Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/8/21 – More Tech Pain?

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

“Even a mistake may turn out to be the one thing necessary to a worthwhile achievement.” – Henry Ford

It’s looking like more pain may be in store for tech stocks to start the week as Nasdaq futures are trading down by more than 1%.  As bad as that sounds, things were worse about a half-hour ago before comments from David Tepper through CNBC where he said he doesn’t see rates rising in the short-term and that therefore, equities look attractive.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, the passage of the COVID relief bill, Chinese trade data, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.

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Last week was a painful one for the Nasdaq 100, but for the majority of other US indices, last week was a positive one with the DJIA up over 1% while the S&P 500 was up just shy of 1%.  Following a month-long period of consolidation, all but two of the indices in our Trend Analyzer currently have good timing scores.

Bespoke Brunch Reads: 3/7/21

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day free trial!

Mania

Leading Card Grader PSA Doubles Prices as Industry Booms by Darren Rovell (Action Network)

Two weeks after being sold for a bit less than $1bn, the leading grader of sports trading card quality, has doubled prices and raised minimum batch counts amidst an epic order backlog numbering millions of cards. [Link]

How a 10-second video clip sold for $6.6 million by Elizabeth Howcroft and Ritvik Carvalho (Reuters)

A non-fungible token purchased for $67,000 is telling for 100x that price less than six months after being sold for the first time last fall. [Link; auto-playing video]

First Trust Takes Aim At ARK; Launching Innovation ETF by David Dierking (The Street)

Following in the footsteps of ARK Invest’s extremely successful Innovation ETF (ARKK), ETF giant First Trust has filed for an ETF that takes a similar approach. [Link; auto-playing video]

Meme Stocks

Hertz, the Original Meme Stock, Is Turning Out to Be Worthless by Steven Church (Bloomberg)

The original retail-fueled short squeeze from 2020 saw Hertz declare Chapter 11; that process is now finishing up with equity owners getting nothing. [Link; soft paywall]

Bots hyped up GameStop on major social media platforms, analysis finds by Michelle Price (Business Insider/Reuters)

A Massachusetts-based cyber security company has identified a large number of social media bot accounts helped amplify the craze for GameStop (GME) stock. [Link]

Washington

The Evolution of the Oval Office Décor (American Home Shield)

Ever wonder what the President’s office looked like in the past? Décor changed little in the first half of the 20th century, but since Truman each President has redecorated to suit their personal styles and the fashions of the time. [Link]

Divided Senate Passes Biden’s Pandemic Aid Plan by Emily Cochrane (NYT)

Despite some confusion over specific unemployment provisions that delayed passage Friday, this weekend the Democratic-controlled Senate passed a $1.9trn aid bill that will result in thousands of dollars of aide for the middle class, expanded jobless claims benefits, and is estimated to cut poverty by an astounding one-third this year. [Link; soft paywall]

Whoops

Hey Citi, your bitcoin report is embarrassingly bad by Jemima Kelly (FT)

This week an effort to discuss crypto currency with clients led to some pretty spectacular whiffs from Citi’s research group, including a remarkable mix-up over basis points versus percentage points. [Link; paywall]

The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate by Michelle Rozo and Gigi Kwik Gronvall (NIH)

During the 1970s, a virulent flu strain that wrecked havoc likely represented a failure of containment at a bio research lab. The genetics of the virus were almost identical to strains first collected decades prior. [Link]

Shifting Gears

‘I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This’: Chaos Strikes Global Shipping by Peter S. Goodman, Alexandra Stevenson, Niraj Chokshi and Michael Corkery (NYT)

Shipping can be a volatile business, but the rapid swings in demand across goods and geographies have created unprecedented chaos across transportation markets around the world. [Link; soft paywall]

How Remote Work Is Reshaping America’s Urban Geography by Richard Florida and Adam Ozimek (WSJ)

Roughly half of Americans are working remotely, and while that share will decline as vaccine rollouts make normal offices safe again, some of the shift will persist amidst a longer-term trend towards the practice of working without going in to a physical desk. [Link; paywall]

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Have a great weekend!

ARK Invest Still Sitting On Solid Gains, But They’re Sliding Away

The ARK Invest family of ETFs had a stellar 2020 that drew huge inflows. Across the five ETFs issued by Cathie Wood’s company, gains ranged from 105% to 178%, but 2021 has been much less friendly. The flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is down 4.9% YTD (and getting worse), with a mixture of gains and losses across other themes. Flows haven’t yet had that kind of round trip: $20bn in 2020, with another $15bn this year (including $2bn of outflows since the peak in February). Looking at the total ARK Invest universe, we can calculate the amount of money investors have gained or lost in aggregate by subtracting flows from market cap. As shown below, back in December investors had a weighted average return of more than 60% across the five ETFs, weighted by the size of purchases. The selloff since has driven that down to just 19% through yesterday. With $15bn entering the funds this year, lots of investors are getting close to or further underwater, and declines could accelerate. So far this year, there’s only been $2bn of outflows, but the money that was quick to come in could just as quickly leave given the recent losses. This blog post is adapted from an analysis included in our nightly Closer report. Click here to start a free trial of Bespoke Institutional to get immediate access.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/5/21 – Stronger Than Expected Jobs Report

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.

“You must not only learn to live with tension, you must seek it out. You must learn to thrive on stress.” – J. Paul Getty

Thankfully, it’s Friday.  After another week of declines for equities, futures were modestly positive this morning, but that changed with the release of the February employment report.  The bond market was already showing some signs of concern heading into the release, and those concerns look to have been warranted as the headline number came in well above forecasts (379K vs 200K). In reaction to the report, the 10-year yield has risen from a pre-release level of 1.58% to 1.62% now.

Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, movements in the Japanese bond market, German factory orders, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, including our series of charts tracking vaccinations, and much more.

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Normally, when the equity market comes under selling pressure bonds rally providing some level of cushion to a diversified portfolio.  In the last few weeks, though, that still hasn’t been the case.  The chart below is from the second page of the Morning Lineup and shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 versus the US Treasury Long Bond Future.  In an environment like the last couple of weeks where stocks have been weak, you would expect the relative strength line of the S&P 500 to decline, but so far during this pullback that hasn’t been the case.  Despite a 4.6% pullback in the S&P 500, its relative strength versus the Long bond Future remains near 52-week highs.

The Bespoke 50 Top Growth Stocks — 3/4/21

Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000.  Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago.  Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” is up 437.7% excluding dividends, commissions, or fees.  Over the same period, the S&P 500 is up in price by 173.5%.  Always remember, though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.  To view our “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks, please start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.

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