Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/10/25 – T.G.I.M
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer ‘Present’ or ‘Not Guilty’.” – Theodore Roosevelt
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are strong to start the week as the government shutdown nears an end, lifting investor spirits. Pretty soon, we may even have economic data again! The S&P 500 is indicated to open higher by just shy of 1% while the Nasdaq is up 1.5%. It may be strange to think that the market rallied in early October when the shutdown first started, and now it’s rallying when the government is poised to reopen! But investors are breathing a sigh of relief. A short shutdown is easily digestible, but the longer it lasted, the greater potential it had to ground US air travel to a halt, and that would have had major economic implications. And that’s just one of many ways the shutdown impacts overall economic activity, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of employees who haven’t been getting paid.
As stock futures rally, treasury yields are 3 to 4 bps higher, crude oil is only fractionally higher at just over $60, but gold is surging with a gain of 2.5% and back above $4,100. Meanwhile, crypto has also responded very well to the news of the shutdown ending, as Bitcoin is back above $106K and Ether trades above $3,600.
Asia was the first market to open following news that the shutdown was coming to an end, and markets started the week with broad-based gains. South Korea surged 3.0% followed by Hong Kong (+1.6%) and Japan (1.3%). Chinese inflation came in stronger than expected, reversing September’s deflationary reading (-0.3% y/y up to 0.2% y/y), but PPI remained negative as it has for an astonishing 37 straight months with a 2.1% y/y decline. There’s also some relief as the Chinese government relaxed some of its restrictions on rare earth exports and resumed exports of Nexperia chips.
Europe picked up right where Asia left off this morning, and the STOXX 600 is up 1.5% even as November investor confidence, as measured by Sentix, declined to -7.4 from -3.9 and below expectations for -5.4. Leading the way higher, Italy and Germany are up over 2%, but every major national equity benchmark is up at least 1%.
This morning’s rally to start the week comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both successfully tested short-term uptrend lines and their 50-DMAs on Friday. If the morning gains can hold through the trading session, bulls will likely feel even more emboldened.
With today’s rally, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on pace to gap up to start the week for the seventh straight week. That’s an impressive run and just the 15th such streak for the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) since it launched in 1993 and the 11th streak of seven or more weeks since the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) started trading in 1993. The chart below shows streaks of positive starts to the week for QQQ since it started trading in 1999, and the current streak is the longest since the 10-week record streak that ended in June of last year.
What’s even more impressive about the streak in QQQ is that every one of the positive opens has seen QQQ gap up at least 0.5% at the open. That’s the longest streak of 0.5%+ upside gaps to start a week in the ETF’s history.
Brunch Reads – 11/9/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Tear Down This Wall: On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall, the Cold War’s most infamous symbol of division, was opened. For nearly three decades, the Wall had split families, friends, and a city in half, separating democratic West Berlin from communist East Berlin under tight Soviet control. That evening, confusion over a poorly worded announcement by East German official Günter Schabowski led to thousands of East Berliners flooding the checkpoints, demanding to cross. Overwhelmed border guards, unsure of orders, eventually swung the gates open.
The scene that followed was electric. Crowds from both sides climbed atop the Wall, hammering at it with chisels and fists, embracing, singing, and waving flags. Within months, East Germany’s government would fall, and less than a year later, Germany itself would reunite. The Iron Curtain began to crumble, and with it, the Cold War world order that had defined the 20th century.
AI & Technology
The AI Boom’s Real Economy Problem (Nonconsensus)
Meta’s earnings last week showed that huge AI investments aren’t translating into big revenue gains. The company is spending about $70 billion a year to boost ad performance but seeing only a few billion in added revenue. Big Tech as a whole faces the same issue of spending heavily on AI while the payoff, so far, looks limited. [Link]
Continue reading our weekly Brunch Reads linkfest by logging in if you’re already a member or signing up for a trial to one of our two membership levels shown below! You can cancel at any time.
The Bespoke Report – 11/7/25 – The Story Writes Itself
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
It was a wild week for markets as a series of headlines raised concerns that the AI trade may have gotten ahead of itself. Investors are also questioning the health of the economy amid the government shutdown. We cover all these events, along with earnings and the latest market trends, in this week’s Bespoke Report.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 11/7/25
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/7/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“There is a crack in everything, that’s how the light gets in.” – Leonard Cohen
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While the S&P 500’s price remains above its 50-day moving average (for now at least), its 10-day advance/decline line has moved into oversold territory for the first time since the April tariff tantrum. This is indicative of an oversold market in the short-term, even though price looks neutral on the surface.
Futures are trading lower once again this morning as the bears have taken control. So far this month, the year’s biggest winners have been hit the hardest, but those are also the names with the most lofty valuations. Below are decile charts showing the performance of Russell 1,000 stocks month-to-date based on price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios. Decile 10 in each chart contains the stocks with the highest of these two valuation metrics. Stocks in the decile that contains the highest price-to-sales ratios are down an average of 3.6% this month, while stocks in the decile that includes the highest P/E ratios are down 4.8%. Other deciles aren’t down nearly as much.
The Closer – Implementation Implodes, Fedspeak, Claims – 11/6/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the weak month to date performance at the tail ends of the valuation, revenue growth, and year to date performance spectrums (page 1). We follow up with a check in on the lagging performance of AI Implementation stocks (page 2) before pivoting into a rundown of tonight’s earnings and a busy day of Fedspeak (page 3). We finish with a look at state level jobless claims data (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 11/6/25
Chart of the Day: Bears Take Control
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/6/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples’ money.” – Margaret Thatcher
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We’re now in the back half of the Q3 earnings season, and probably the most consequential data point we’re seeing coming out of this season is continued strength in forward guidance.
Last earnings season was the first one following the tariff tantrum of the spring, and investors were pleasantly surprised that more companies raised guidance than lowered guidance. That trend has continued in a big way this season, and with more than 1,000 companies reporting Q3 numbers thus far, we’ve seen 14% raise guidance compared to just 6% that have lowered guidance. As shown below, our guidance spread chart, which shows the percentage of companies raising minus lowering guidance on a rolling three-month basis, has spiked to a level we’ve only seen once before, which was the period coming out of the COVID Crash in 2020. These big spikes in guidance have historically happened in the early part of periods following max uncertainty.
The Closer – Risk Slump, Layoff Announcements, PMIs – 11/5/25
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the latest earnings including a check in on performance of consumer risk sentiment stocks (page 1). We then review the latest labor data (page 2) and service PMIs (page 3) before closing out with a rundown of petroleum inventories (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!