Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/30/25
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“I think in terms of next year, our constraints, I think it’s likely to be just regulatory.” – Elon Musk
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
When you see a quote like the one above from Tesla’s conference call last night, it’s understandable why Elon Musk took such an active role in last year’s Presidential election. The chart below is from our annual outlook published in December and shows the annual number of pages in the Published Code of Federal Regulations since 1950. While death and taxes are the only certainties in life, the growth of government is right up there. For nearly every year since 1950, the number of pages in the published code has increased, and for the most recent year available (2023), it hit a record high of over 190,000. As we highlighted in our outlook back in December, the potential for a halt or slowdown to what has essentially been uninterrupted growth in government over the last several decades is certainly a pro.
The Closer – Central Banking, Mega Cap Earnings – 1/29/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a recap of the latest news in central banking including today’s FOMC decision (page 1) in addition to how the market reacted (page 2). Next, we dive into the details of key earnings reports from MSFT, META, IBM, and TSLA (pages 3 and 4). (pages 3 and 4). We close out with a look at the most recent update to petroleum stockpiles (page 5).
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Chart of the Day: Sizeable Growth
Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/29/25
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Royal Caribbean (RCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Royal Caribbean’s (RCL) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Royal Caribbean (RCL) is the world’s largest cruise line with renowned brands like Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises. For Q4, RCL reported 7.3% net yield growth, driven by strong bookings and onboard spending. The company introduced Celebrity River Cruises, launching in 2027 with 10 new ships, signaling an entry into the high-margin river cruise market. Private destination investments, including the Nassau Beach Club opening in late 2025, serve to boost guest satisfaction and yield. AI-powered personalization and other technology reduced booking times by 50%. Strong consumer demand, driven by high wages and a focus on experiences, led to record-breaking bookings and higher APDs for 2025. Fleet expansion continues with Icon of the Seas and Utopia of the Seas driving growth, while loyalty programs improve guest retention. RCL shares traded more than 13% higher on 1/28 after the record-breaking quarter…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 1/29/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Discrepancies – and hence opportunities – in securities originate most often when events move faster than quotations.” – Benjamin Graham
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Markets bounced back on Tuesday from Monday’s DeepSeek drop, and the S&P is entering Wednesday trading down just 58 bps on the week. Investors sold first and asked questions later on Monday, but once they did start asking questions, it seems as if cooler heads might be starting to prevail.
While AI Infrastructure stocks have fallen this week, the DeepSeek news has caused investors to contemplate an overall lower cost to compute on the AI front, which should benefit margins for companies in the AI Implementation space and also increase overall demand from consumers in the long run.
As shown below, NVDA’s drop in market cap this week has mostly been offset by gains in market cap for the other major mega-cap Tech and Tech-adjacent stocks. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) have seen a combined increase in market cap of $299 billion so far this week, while NVDA has seen a drop of $334 billion. On a net basis, the market cap for all six of these behemoths has only fallen $34.8 billion on the week.
Below is a quick snapshot of the six mega-caps mentioned above run through our Trend Analyzer tool. While NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 8.4% over the last week and in oversold territory, Meta (META) and Apple (AAPL) are both up more than 7%.
The Closer – Impoundments, Earnings, Confidence – 1/28/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with commentary regarding the Office of Management and Budget’s memo (page 1) followed by a dive into the latest earnings reports (pages 2 and 3). We also review the latest Consumer Confidence data (page 4) before closing out with a look at another strong 7-year note auction (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/28/25
Chart of the Day – Fed Days Limping Into the Close
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: American Express (AXP)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers American Express’ (AXP) Q4 2024 earnings call.
American Express (AXP) is celebrated for its premium charge and credit cards, travel-related offerings, and payment solutions. Catering primarily to affluent consumers, small businesses, and global enterprises, the company provides an array of products and services designed to boost spending, borrowing, and travel experiences. Its reputation for excellence and exclusivity has appealed to millennials and Gen Z consumers, who have been a driving force of AXP’s for several quarters now. AXP closed the year with record revenues of $66 billion, up 10% on an FX-adjusted basis, driven by a surge in premium cardholder spending and holiday-season billings growth of 8%. The company saw record net card fees, 13 million new card acquisitions, and 16% Q4 spending growth among millennial and Gen Z customers. SME spending rose 3%, supported by stronger small business sentiment. Travel and entertainment spending grew nicely, with airline travel up 13% and front-of-cabin bookings up 19%. International markets grew 15%, aided by an expanded merchant network. Looking to 2025, AXP expects 8–10% revenue growth and plans to refresh 35–50 products. After topping estimates on strong spending activity, AXP shares fell more than 2% on 1/24 as guidance came in lower than investors would have liked after a solid 2024…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for AXP by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: