Home price data from S&P Cotality for September was posted this week and showed that not one of the twenty cities tracked by Case Shiller saw a month-over-month gain.  Tampa, Seattle, and San Diego saw the biggest monthly drops, while Detroit and Cleveland were down the least.

Below is a table showing home price movements over various time frames for the twenty cities tracked along with the national and composite indices.

Over the last year, gains and losses are split roughly 50/50 across the country.  East coast and mid-west cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit are all up 4%+ over the last year, while home prices in Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami are down the most with drops of more than 1%.

A year or so ago, nearly every city tracked by Case Shiller was sitting at record highs, but now there’s not one city that hasn’t seen at least a small drop from all-time highs.

As shown below, San Francisco home prices are in the biggest drawdown at -10.1%, followed by Phoenix (-5.9%), Seattle (-5.5%), and Denver (-5.1%).

While prices have begun to dip a bit, they’re still up massively since February 2020 just before COVID hit.  The composite indices tracking the entire country are still up more than 50% since COVID, while Miami, Charlotte, San Diego, Tampa, and New York are up the most at more than 60%.

The cities where home prices are up the least versus February 2020 levels are San Francisco, Portland, Minneapolis, Denver, and DC, but even these cities are still up more than 30%.

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Amid the ups and downs of the past year including the “tariff crash” in April, the US stock market has still posted a double-digit total return since last Thanksgiving.

Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes since the close before last Thanksgiving using key ETFs traded on US exchanges.

The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and S&P 500 Growth (IVW) have been the best performers of the domestic index ETFs shown with gains of more than 20%.

On the flip side, mid-caps (IJH, IJJ, IJS, IJK) and small-caps (IWM, IJT, IJS) have been either flat or down over the last year.

Looking at US sector ETFs, there has been quite a bit of divergence, with Consumer Staples (XLP), Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), and Real Estate (XLRE) all in the red since last Thanksgiving, while Technology (XLK), Communication Services (XLC), and Utilities (XLU) are all up 10%+.

Aside from Australia (EWA), Argentina (ARGT), and India (INDA), the country ETFs listed in our matrix are all up 20%+ over the last year, so investors that decided to gain more exposure outside of the US have a lot to be thankful for.

The same goes for investors long the gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) ETFs.  These two precious metal ETFs are up the most in our entire matrix!

On the flip side, the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been the worst performer in the matrix since last Thanksgiving with a decline of 9.96%.  Just a month or so ago, IBIT owners had a lot to be thankful for, but after a 30% drawdown from highs, now it’s “not so much.”

Speaking of being thankful, anyone that managed to go long the names below a year ago should probably be offering to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving turkey.

The stocks shown are Russell 3,000 names that are up more than 250% since last Thanksgiving, of which there are thirty.

If you’re just interested in the largest, most well-known stocks, below is a list of names with market caps of $50+ billion that have done the best over the last year.  There are eight that have doubled: Robinhood (HOOD), Western Digital (WDC), Palantir (PLTR), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), Warner Bros. (WBD), Lam Research (LRCX), and Newmont (NEM).

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As the Tech/AI trade has hit a speed bump this month, the Health Care sector has been shot out of a cannon.  At yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 Health Care sector was 10% above its 50-day moving average and 2.5 standard deviations above its 50-DMA.  Check out the one-year trading range chart of the sector below:

Health Care’s move in the last month has left a good chunk of the stocks in the sector at new 52-week highs.  Net new 52-week highs for the sector have exploded to the highest level of the last year:

So far this month, the Health Care sector is outperforming the broad S&P 500 by more than ten percentage points.  As shown below, that hasn’t happened since November 2000!

While Health Care is catching a bid these days, it’s still deep in the hole based on its action over the last couple of years.  Just over two years ago, Health Care’s weighting in the S&P 500 was at 16%.  By this September, its weighting had nearly been cut in half down to just 8.65%; its lowest weighting since August 1994.

Health Care’s 18% gain in the last two months has only pushed its weight in the S&P back up to 10% as of today, so there’s plenty of runway left for the sector if the good vibes continue.

Below is a look at the most extreme overbought stocks in the sector right now.  Even names like Bristol Myers (BMY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) have joined in on the rally.

Of course, after moves like this, most traders would tell you to wait for some downside mean reversion before jumping in on the long side.

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Since the Nasdaq 100 peaked on 10/29, the 25 largest stocks in the index have lost roughly $1 trillion in market cap.

Of the eight “trillion dollar companies” in the index, four have seen their market caps fall by at least $140 billion (NVDA, MSFT, META, TSLA), while the other four have actually seen their market caps increase (AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO).

No stock has seen a bigger jump recently than Alphabet (GOOGL), whose market cap has risen by more than half of a trillion dollars since 10/29.

2025 has turned into the Year of Alphabet (GOOGL).  It is now the best performer of the mega-caps with a 70% year-to-date gain, and it has more than doubled (+124%) since its April low.  Check out the near-parabolic move that GOOGL shares have seen just in the last couple of months.

While Alphabet has recently spiked because of rave reviews for its latest LLM model (Gemini 3), GOOGL shares have actually risen for eight straight months:

Even more remarkable is that GOOGL shares have gained more than 10% for four consecutive months, which is easily a record since it went public in 2004.  (This presumes shares don’t collapse on the final trading day of November on Friday.)

As shown below, GOOGL’s 88% gain over the last six months is its strongest six-month move in its history!  An 88% move over six months is impressive for a company of any size, but it’s even more astounding for a company with a $3.8 trillion market cap.

Of course, a move higher of this magnitude leaves shares extremely elevated relative to moving averages.  As of yesterday, GOOGL shares were a record 61% above their 200-day moving average.

Congratulations if you’ve taken part in GOOGL’s gains this year, but most traders would say it’s too risky to take a new position in any name that gets this extended.

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November’s consumer confidence data from The Conference Board, released yesterday, continued its downward trend, with both Present Situation and Expectations readings showing another drop.

As shown below, Present Situations has been trending lower throughout the 2020s after trending higher from the end of the Financial Crisis through 2018.  The reading for Expectations has taken a similar path, cratering more in November to the bottom end of its 15+ year range.

Consumer confidence readings continue to look remarkably disconnected from economic fundamentals, a pattern that has persisted pretty much since the first Trump Presidency.

While political leanings have a big impact on confidence (Democrats and Independents are currently much more bearish than Republicans), we now also see age-based confidence divergences.

Below is a look at The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading broken out by three age bands: under 35, 35 to 54, and 55+.

Counter to the recent narrative that young consumers are struggling, November Consumer Confidence among those under 35 jumped to its highest level since July 2023, while confidence among those 55 and older hit its lowest level since January 2021 and the third-lowest reading in the last ten years.  Why are boomers so down on the economy when the under-35 crowd has gotten more optimistic?

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