The Closer – CPI, Magnificent 7, Deficit – 2/12/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a rundown of today’s CPI data (page 1 and 2) including a look at how the market reacted to the release (page 3). We then review the latest earnings reports (page 4) before finishing with overviews of the latest EIA data (page 5) and 10-year note auction (page 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/12/25
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Upstart (UPST)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Upstart’s (UPST) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Upstart (UPST) is an AI-driven lending platform that uses machine learning models to assess creditworthiness beyond traditional FICO scores. The company partners with banks and credit unions to offer personal loans, auto refinancing, and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). What sets Upstart apart is its proprietary AI underwriting, which means faster approvals, higher accuracy in risk assessment, and automation rates exceeding 90%. UPST closed 2024 highlighting loan originations up 68% YoY and revenue that jumped 56% YoY to $219M. AI innovation was a major theme, with Model 19 introducing the Payment Transition Model (PTM), improving default predictions. The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) improved, helping stabilize credit performance. Auto and HELOC originations grew 60% sequentially, and small-dollar loans soared 115%. The company expanded funding, adding $1.3B in new commitments and a $150M warehouse facility. CEO Dave Girouard emphasized plans to “10x” AI leadership in 2025, while the company aims for profitability in second half of 2025. After its third straight earnings triple play, UPST skyrocketed almost 30% on Wednesday morning, 2/12…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Zillow (ZG)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Zillow’s (ZG) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Zillow (ZG) is the dominant online real estate marketplace, providing home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals with data-driven tools to navigate the housing market. The company’s platform includes home listings, rental properties, mortgages, and real estate agent services, with its “Housing Super App” that aims to digitize every stage of a real estate transaction. ZG serves both individual consumers and industry professionals, offering insights into housing trends, affordability, and market conditions. Its Zestimate home valuation tool and integration of AI-driven features like Zillow Showcase make it a leader in real estate technology. This quarter, ZG posted $554 million in Q4 revenue, up 17% YoY, despite a sluggish housing market with only 6% total transaction value growth. The enhanced market expansion strategy drove stronger conversions, with 21% of transactions now in these markets, expected to reach 35% in 2025. Mortgage revenue soared 86% YoY, with Zillow Home Loans adoption climbing. Rental revenue jumped 25%, fueled by a new Redfin partnership and an expanded multifamily property count of 50,000 (up from 37,000 in 2023). AI-powered features, including Zillow Showcase, helped drive a 2% premium on listings. While home affordability remains a challenge, ZG notes that a shortage of 4.5 million homes remains a structural constraint. ZG beat estimates but cut guidance, and the stock fell as much as 14.2% on Wednesday morning, 2/12…
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Chart of the Day: Hot CPI Days
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/12/25 – Stall Speed
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“Time would become meaningless if there were too much of it.” – Ray Kurzweil
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Equity futures are mixed heading into the open and the January CPI report but based on Powell’s testimony in front of the US Senate yesterday, this report will probably have no impact on short-term Fed policy which looks to be on hold. A key reason for that view from the Fed is that while inflation has come down considerably from its peak, it’s become stuck at levels too high for the Fed’s liking. Hence, the moderately restrictive policy stance.
The chart of Core CPI encapsulates this pattern. After peaking at a year/year rate of 6.6% in September 2022, Core CPI steadily pulled back over the next 20 months dropping to a rate of 3.2% last July. Since July, though, the core inflation rate has been stuck at that 3.2% level. The year/year rate was forecast to fall to 3.1% in this morning’s report for January which would have been the lowest rate since April 2021. The actual rate came in higher than expected at 3.3% which is still within the stall speed range we’ve been in since last July. Even if the y/y rate did fall to 3.1%, though, the core rate would still be 0.7 ppts above its pre-Covid peak of 2.4% from 2015 through 2020.
The Closer – Kalecki, Earnings, Sentiment – 2/11/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with some commentary regarding government deficits (page 1) followed by a dive into the latest earnings (page 2). We then review investor sentiment (page 3) before closing out with a rundown of the strong 3-year note auction (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Daily Sector Snapshot — 2/11/25
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Shopify (SHOP)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Shopify’s (SHOP) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Shopify (SHOP) is an e-commerce platform that enables businesses of all sizes to build, manage, and scale their online and offline operations. It provides tools for website creation, payments, inventory management, and marketing, serving everyone from small startups to global brands like Reebok and FC Barcelona. With a growing enterprise presence, SHOP is competing with legacy commerce providers. The company’s rapid international growth and dominance in checkout solutions (Shop Pay now accounts for 41% of GMV) provide insights into digital commerce trends, merchant adoption, and the evolution of retail infrastructure. SHOP closed 2024 with 31% Q4 revenue growth and 26% GMV growth. Enterprise adoption is improving, with brands like Aldo and David’s Bridal doing more with the platform beyond initial integrations. International GMV grew 33%, led by 37% growth in EMEA, while B2B surged 132%. AI investments, including Sidekick, are hard at work to improve merchant efficiency. Shop Pay processed $27B in GMV, up 50% YoY, while the Shop App’s native GMV jumped 84%. Shopify also highlighted strong offline growth (26% GMV increase), meaning physical retail with its point of sale (POS) systems. EPS was in line while revenue beat estimates, and the stock was up modestly on Tuesday afternoon…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: McDonald’s (MCD)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers McDonald’s (MCD) Q4 2024 earnings call.
McDonald’s (MCD) is the world’s largest fast-food chain, serving over 69 million customers daily across more than 40,000 locations in over 100 countries. Known for its core menu items like the Big Mac, McNuggets, and fries, the company has increasingly focused on popularizing chicken, digital sales, and loyalty programs. MCD provides insight into consumer spending trends, particularly among low- and middle-income diners, and serves as a key barometer for global economic conditions and QSR industry trends. Q4 was challenging, with US comp sales down 1.4% due to an E. coli outbreak linked to slivered onions in Quarter Pounders, though full recovery is expected by early Q2 2025. Global comp sales were up 0.4%, led by Canada, Germany, and Spain, while the UK and Australia lagged. The company is doubling down on value with the McValue platform. Loyalty program sales hit $30B, with a goal of $45B by 2027. There are 2,200 new restaurants planned in 2025, including 1,000 in China. MCD missed on the top and bottom lines, but the stock rose almost 5% on 2/10. Look out for the fan favorite Snack Wrap comeback at some point this year…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for MCD by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: