Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/21/25 – More Pain for UNH
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“You will become way less concerned with what other people think of you when you realize how seldom they do.” – David Foster Wallace
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If you’re looking at futures on the Dow, it’s not looking like a positive start to the last trading day of the week. Futures on that index are down nearly half of a percent on news that the index’s second most heavily weighted component – UnitedHealth Group (UNH) – is down over 10% following a WSJ report that the Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the company for its billing practices related to its Medicare Advantage plans. Outside of the Dow, though, S&P 500 futures are flat, and the Nasdaq is on pace to open 0.35% higher.
Overnight, Asian markets traded higher to close the week with broad-based gains as Japanese CPI rose 0.5% m/m versus an increase of 0.6% in December. In Europe, stocks have also bounced back from yesterday’s decline with the STOXX 600 trading up over 0.5% putting it back into the black for the week. The gains come despite some mixed PMI readings where the Manufacturing index came in higher than expected (but still in contraction territory). At the same time, the Services PMI, which was above 50, missed expectations.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down less than 0.5% yesterday, but there were some big moves in individual stocks as some of the market’s highest flyers in recent weeks/months were taken out to the woodshed. Among the largest US banks and brokers, the percentage declines may not have been as large as some of the other market areas, but relative to their normal price moves, the declines were large. Of the six large US banks shown below, all of them were down at least 1%, with four down over 3%; JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) both fell more than 4%.
The moves may have been painful, but putting them in perspective, most of these stocks have seen large gains in recent months. On a six-month chart, they don’t look especially significant. Besides Bank of America (BAC), they were all either at or right near 52-week highs heading into yesterday’s decline.
The Closer – What Drives the Dollar? – 2/20/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look at what drives moves in the dollar (page 1) followed by a look at some discrepancies in the latest jobless claims and Philly Fed data (page 2). We then show some of the mean reversion that has taken place in the past couple of sessions (page 3). Next, we review today’s 30-year TIPS auction (page 4) before closing out with a recap of the latest EIA data (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Chart of the Day: Is Walmart (WMT) The Wrong Business Or The Wrong Price?
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Airbnb (ABNB)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Airbnb’s (ABNB) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Airbnb (ABNB) operates a global marketplace for short-term rentals, connecting millions of travelers with unique accommodations in over 220 countries. The company has transformed the hospitality industry by enabling individuals to monetize their properties, offering everything from city apartments to countryside retreats. What sets Airbnb apart is its scale, over 5 billion site visits per year, and its evolving platform, which increasingly integrates AI, flexible payment options, and host services. ABNB’s Q4 revenue grew 12% YoY to $2.5B, driven by product improvements and global expansion. The Co-Host Network hit 100,000 listings, boosting supply and host participation. AI-powered customer support launches in 2025, positioning ABNB as a leader in AI-driven travel experiences. Expansion outside its core markets accelerated, with targeted growth in Brazil and Japan, where bookings are growing twice as fast as mature markets. Regulatory challenges persist, notably in New York, but ABNB is strengthening city partnerships globally. The better-than-expected results were well received as the stock pushed 14.5% higher on 2/14…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Deere (DE)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Deere’s (DE) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Deere (DE) is a global giant in agricultural, construction, and forestry equipment, manufacturing everything from high-horsepower tractors to precision ag technology. DE has also been at the forefront of autonomous farming and digital connectivity, helping farmers maximize yields and efficiency. The company’s financial services arm supports equipment financing, while its precision ag solutions, like Starlink-enabled JD Link Boost, improve real-time machine monitoring. DE reported a 35% YoY decline in equipment sales to $6.89 billion, reflecting industry-wide weakness in large ag and construction equipment due to high interest rates, macro uncertainty, and rising used inventory. Precision ag adoption remains strong, with over 1,500 orders for its ag essentials kits in Brazil. Large ag field inventory fell 25% YoY, and DE continues underproducing to balance supply. US farm income is expected to rise 22% YoY, supported by $10 billion in government aid, though order velocity remains slow. Construction & forestry faces pricing pressure, leading DE to cut price realization guidance to flat for the year. On mixed results, DE shares fell 2.2% on 2/13. That broke a streak of nine quarters of better-than-expected results…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Shake Shack (SHAK)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Shake Shack’s (SHAK) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Shake Shack (SHAK) is a fast-casual restaurant chain known for its premium burgers, crinkle-cut fries, and hand-spun shakes. Originating as a hot dog stand in New York’s Madison Square Park in 2004, it has grown into a global brand with 329 company-operated locations and 250 licensed Shacks across 20 countries. Shake Shack blends high-quality ingredients with a more elevated experience than typical fast food. The company had a strong quarter, with revenue up 14.8% to $328.7M and same-store sales rising 4.3%. The company’s expansion remains aggressive, targeting 1,500 US company-owned Shacks. Labor efficiency was a key driver, with improved scheduling models boosting restaurant margins to 22.7% (+2.9% YoY). Drive-thru and kitchen innovation efforts, including an Atlanta-based Kitchen Innovation Lab, aim to improve speed and consistency. The Truffle Burger, its highest-priced LTO ever, drove strong demand. The company’s new loyalty program is in development, focusing on guest recognition rather than traditional discounts. SHAK climbed more than 14.8% at the open on 2/20 after reporting mixed results…
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Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 2/20/25
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Walmart (WMT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Walmart’s (WMT) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Walmart (WMT) is the world’s largest retailer, known for its aggressive pricing in groceries, general merchandise, and its growing digital business. This quarter, WMT delivered 5.2% sales growth with e-commerce revenue up 16%. The company expanded same-day delivery to 93% of US households, with 30% of customers paying extra for faster service. Advertising revenue grew 29%, while Sam’s Club and Walmart+ memberships continued strong growth. AI-driven automation saved 4 million developer hours, and WMT is doubling down on supply chain efficiency. The company also announced a 13% dividend increase, the biggest in over a decade. Despite persistent food inflation, WMT’s price rollbacks and market share gains signal consumer resilience. Leadership remains bullish on AI, automation, and omni-channel growth. On better-than-expected results, but weaker guidance, WMT shares fell more than 6% on 2/20…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Builders FirstSource’s (BLDR) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is the largest supplier of building materials, prefabricated components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, remodelers, and commercial contractors in the US. The company specializes in value-added products like trusses, millwork, and wall panels, along with digital tools that streamline ordering and job site efficiency. Its strong focus on acquisitions has allowed it to expand into high-growth markets. BLDR navigated a tough housing market with an 8% drop in revenue to $3.8 billion, driven by a 29% decline in Multi-Family and a 7% dip in Single-Family sales. Affordability challenges led builders to focus on smaller homes and rate buy-downs. Despite headwinds, BLDR invested $75 million in value-added products and saw $134 million in incremental digital sales, targeting $200 million in 2025. It closed 13 acquisitions, adding $420 million in prior-year sales. Tariffs and labor constraints remain concerns, but BLDR’s prefabrication capabilities could offer a competitive edge. On mixed results, BLDR had an up-and-down day in the market on 2/20…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Etsy (ETSY)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Etsy’s (ETSY) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Etsy (ETSY) operates a global online marketplace connecting buyers with independent sellers offering handmade, vintage, and unique craft goods. With over 100 million unique items, Etsy stands out in the e-commerce space by putting creativity and personalization over mass production. The platform caters to small business owners, 90% of whom are one-person businesses, with a large percentage being women. Beyond its core marketplace, Etsy owns Depop, a fast-growing fashion resale platform, and Reverb, a music gear marketplace. The company’s Q4 results reflected ongoing struggles with consumer spending shifts, as GMS (Gross Merchandise Sales) declined 6.8% YoY to $3.7 billion, with the core Etsy marketplace down 8.6%. The company is leaning into differentiation with AI-driven quality scoring, improving personalization, and growing its loyalty program. Depop was a bright spot, with GMS up 32%, making it the fastest-growing US fashion resale platform. Reverb saw a 2.6% decline but gained traction with its new Reverb Outlet. Management expects Q1 2025 GMS to decline at a similar rate but sees potential for improvement later in the year. On mixed results, ETSY shares fell 10.1% on 2/19…
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