B.I.G. Tips – Sector Technicals
Chart of the Day – S&P 500 Flirts With Correction
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/12/25 – Going the Other Direction
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“It must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.” – Harry Truman, 3/12/47
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Can we squeeze out a positive day in the market? The S&P 500 finished the day down 0.76% yesterday, but it almost seemed like a positive day in some ways. That’s how miserable the last three weeks have been for bulls! This morning, US futures were firmly in the green heading into the February CPI report. That report came in weaker than expected, providing a further boost- at least for now.
78 years ago today, President Harry Truman asked Congress to appropriate $400 million to provide economic, military, and political assistance to democratic countries facing the threat of communist forces. His proclamation set in motion the journey of the US on the path from isolationism to a leader on the global stage, taking an active role in pushing back against the growth of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Whether the US became too active in global affairs in the ensuing eight decades is up for debate. However, whatever direction US foreign policy has headed over the last eighty years, it appears to be going the other way now.
Focusing more on the short-term, the S&P 500 peaked three weeks ago today. In the 14 trading days since then, the S&P 500 has declined 9.3%, and all eleven sectors have posted declines. On the downside, just three sectors – Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary – are underperforming the S&P 500. Health Care has held up better than any other sector with a decline of less than 1%, but Real Estate and Consumer Staples have also held up relatively well.
With a decline of nearly 15%, the Consumer Discretionary sector has been the worst performing sector in the market, and the bulk of that decline has been the result of mega-cap stocks in the sector like Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon.com (AMZN). These declines have pushed the sector’s margin of underperformance versus the S&P 500 over the last three weeks to historical extremes.
The chart below shows the 15-day performance spread between the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 since 1990. Just recently, it had underperformed the S&P 500 by over eight percentage points, which was an extreme reached just a handful of other times in the last 35 years. As extreme as the underperformance has been in the last three weeks, it has mostly been a reversal of the extreme outperformance the sector experienced late last year.
The Closer – Retracement, Catalysts & Contributions, JOLTS – 3/11/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look at market technicals and breadth as the S&P gets closer to a 10% correction. We begin with a technical breakdown of the latest retracement in addition to the catalysts for the moves (pages 1 and 2). We also shown the rotation under the surface (page 3) and which stocks have contributed the most to the decline (page 4). We finish with an update on investor sentiment (page 5) and today’s JOLTS data (page 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 3/11/25
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Dick’s Sporting Goods’ (DKS) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) is the largest omnichannel sports retailer in the US. The company operates over 850 stores under its flagship brand and specialty banners like Golf Galaxy and Public Lands. DKS delivered a strong Q4, with comps up 6.4% and full-year sales hitting a record $13.4 billion. Growth was fueled by expansion in premium footwear (28% of sales), investments in e-commerce, and store renovations. The company is aggressively scaling its House of Sport and Field House concepts, aiming for 75-100 locations by 2027. Digital investments include RFID technology and a growing retail media network. Management emphasized resilient consumer demand despite macro uncertainty, noting 7 million new customers in 2024. Tariffs are still a wildcard, but sourcing diversification limits exposure. Looking ahead, 2025 comps are guided at 1-3%, with a $1B CapEx plan focused on store growth, tech, and supply chain enhancements. Despite beating estimates, shares were down around 7% on 3/11…
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Big Swings for Small Business
This morning’s release of small business sentiment from the NFIB showed another month-over-month decline in the headline Optimism Index. The politically sensitive survey has shown that the headline index has managed to remain well above pre-Election levels, though the past two months have marked a dramatic drop. The index was at a high 105.1 in December thanks to a record increase after the election. In the two months since then, the index is down 4.4 points, which, as shown in the second chart below, makes February the 10th largest 2-month decline on record.
In the table below we show the readings for each category of the report including the 10 inputs to the optimism index in addition to the eight other indices. As shown, the latest drop has brought the index down from an 85th percentile reading to a 66th percentile reading. Breadth was notably weak with only three inputs rising month-over-month while the rest fell. Other categories were mixed with three increases, three declines, and two unchanged readings.
As previously noted, historically the NFIB survey has been sensitive to politics. The survey has shown small businesses to be more optimistic when Republicans are in power whereas sentiment has been weaker when Democrats are in power. As we discussed in today’s Morning Lineup, some categories like labor indicators appear less sensitive. Expanding on this, below we have constructed indices within the report that are centered around observed or actual changes to the businesses (which in theory could be less politically sensitive) and expectations or plans (which would be more sensitive).
As shown, both indices got a boost after the election although plans and expectations saw a significantly larger jump, meaning small businesses’ hopes were perhaps ahead of what was actually happening within their firms. Just as fast as it rose, that expectations index has pulled back sharply in the past couple of months. As a result, expectations continue to outpace actuals, although to a smaller degree than at the end of 2024.
In addition to the various categories of the report, the NFIB also has an Economic Policy Uncertainty index. This index tends to rise the most during election years, and given we are only a few months out from the election, this index has remained near historically elevated levels. As shown in the second chart below, the move over the past several months has been extremely volatile. The move in the past two months is similar in size to the two-month period leading up to last fall’s election. Prior to that, the only moves of this size were observed in the summer of 2022 and in early 2016 before that.
Elsewhere in the report, there were other mixed signals which could cause some uncertainty outside of politics. The higher prices index ticked up meaningfully with a 10-point jump resulting in the highest reading since May 2023. However, the percentage of firms reporting inflation as their single biggest problem has fallen massively to only 16% versus a recent high of 25% last summer.
For the cohort of businesses that reported lower earnings, inflation was the second most common response accounting for 10% of respondents. That is still well below the past few years’ range, and plays second fiddle to sales volumes, which rose to 16% to match last October and November 2023 for the highest reading since March 2021.
Another big move in last month’s report had to do with capex. While ‘actual changes to capex’ was flat on the month, credit availability rose another point to continue its massive improvement from the past few months.
Perhaps as a result of that greater ease for credit or perhaps to front run any potential tariff impact on the heavily exposed auto industry, we would also note that February saw a historic surge in the percentage of firms reporting capex spend on vehicles.
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Vail Resorts (MTN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Vail Resorts’ (MTN) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Vail Resorts (MTN) is the leading operator of ski resorts in North America, owning and managing 42 mountain resorts across the US, Canada, and Europe. The company generates revenue through lift tickets, season passes (Epic Pass), lodging, dining, ski rentals, and retail sales. With the Epic Pass network, Vail has transformed the ski industry by prioritizing pre-committed revenue, stabilizing earnings despite weather volatility. The company serves both destination travelers and local skiers, offering luxury and high-volume resort experiences. The company provides insight into consumer travel demand, discretionary spending, and winter tourism trends. MTN benefitted this quarter from stable season pass sales and improved early-season conditions. However, destination visitation patterns continue to shift later in the season, impacting Q2 metrics. Local visitation remained strong, but total ski visits were down 2.5% season-to-date. A focus was its $100M cost-efficiency plan, expected to be fully realized by fiscal 2026. Vail raised Epic Pass prices by 7% and offered credits to Park City guests affected by the patrol strike. International demand at Whistler remains weaker, though bookings have improved. Investments in lift infrastructure, AI-driven guest services, and digital innovations continue. On mixed results, MTN shares rose around 6% by midday on 3/11…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Oracle (ORCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Oracle’s (ORCL) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Oracle (ORCL) is a leader in enterprise software, cloud computing, and database solutions for businesses, governments, and organizations worldwide. The company’s core offerings include cloud infrastructure (OCI), multi-cloud database services, and AI-powered enterprise applications. Oracle’s dominance in databases, combined with its growing role in AI and cloud services, positions it as a key player in the race against hyperscalers like AWS, Google, and Microsoft. ORCL reported a record $48 billion in new bookings, pushing remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $130 billion, up 63% YoY. Cloud infrastructure revenue increased 51%, outpacing hyperscalers, while GPU consumption revenue nearly tripled amid soaring AI demand. ORCL’s AI Data Platform is set to integrate OpenAI and xAI models with its databases. Multi-cloud partnerships grew 10x YoY, with 40 new cloud regions planned. Project Stargate, Oracle’s massive AI training venture with NVIDIA and OpenAI, has yet to contribute to RPO but is expected to be a major driver. Capex will double to $16 billion in FY25 to meet demand. CEO Safra Catz expects even faster growth in FY26 and FY27. ORCL shares sank 4% at the open on 3/11 on worse-than-expected results and soft guidance…
Continue reading our Conference Call Recap for ORCL by becoming a Bespoke Institutional subscriber. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call Recap. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below: