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“Though the people support the government; the government should not support the people.” – Grover Cleveland

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures are modestly lower this morning, but since the S&P 500 is coming off its first back-to-back positive days since the February peak, bulls can’t get greedy – although a three-peat would be nice! In that two-day rally, the S&P 500 gained 2.8% for its best two-day gain since the days after the election. That was when the markets had a much more optimistic view of what Trump 2.0 would mean for stock prices. Ironically, the S&P 500 closed the day before Election Day 2024 at 5,712, and yesterday it closed at 5,675, so the market has essentially gone nowhere despite all the highs and lows during the last 4.5 months.

The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance during the current bull market that began in October 2022 with red dots showing each two-day gain of over 2.5%. Early in the bull market, these types of moves were common, but their frequency over the last 18 months has been much less common.

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“I’ve had great success being a total idiot.” – Jerry Lewis

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Shhhhh. Don’t tell anyone, but as we type this the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are indicated to open slightly higher today.  That doesn’t mean the day will finish that way (or even that the market will open higher at 9:30). Still, if, somehow the S&P 500 manages to close higher today, it would be the first time in President Trump’s second term that the index closed higher on the last trading day of one week as well as the first trading day of the next!

There are a few important economic reports on the calendar this morning with March Empire Manufacturing and February Retail Sales both hitting the tape at 8:30 while Business Inventories and Homebuilder Sentiment will come out at 10 AM. Retail Sales will be a key report to watch for clues as to whether the President’s herky-jerky tariff policy, which has weighed on sentiment, has impacted consumer activity. The Empire Manufacturing report will be one of the first clues as to whether business sentiment has gotten worse in March.

In Europe this morning, stocks are broadly higher with the STOXX 600 up 0.5%. That follows a positive night in Asia as China reported better-than-expected growth figures in terms of Retail Sales and Industrial Production. As expected, Chinese authorities also announced a “Special Action Plan” to stabilize the stock market and increase domestic consumption.

St Patrick’s Day is often associated with luck, although that hasn’t necessarily been the case for the market. Over the last 50 years, the US equity market has been open for trading on St Patrick’s Day 36 times, and its median performance on those days has been a gain of 0.23% with positive returns 61% of the time. The best St. Patrick’s Day performance during that stretch was in 2020 when the S&P 500 rallied a hair under 6% (5.99%) while the worst performance was in 1980 when it fell 3.01%. More recently, performance has been stronger with the S&P 500’s median performance since 2009 being a gain of 0.66% and positive returns 73% of the time.

Looking at the S&P 500’s performance during St. Patrick’s Day week, there has also been a modestly positive tone. For this analysis, we calculated the S&P 500’s performance from the Friday before St. Patrick’s Day to the Friday after, and in those years when it fell on a Friday, we used the performance from the Friday before to that Friday.  Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500’s median performance during the week has been a gain of 0.80% with positive returns 58% of the time. The ‘greenest’ week for the market during this period was in 2003 (+7.5%), and the second strongest week was in 2022 (+6.2%). To the downside, the two weakest St Patrick’s Day weeks were both in the last ten years. In 2020, the S&P 500 fell just under 15% even as it rallied almost 6% on St. Patrick’s Day. Talk about volatility!  2018 was another year where the luck of the Irish wasn’t evident in the market as the S&P 500 fell 5.95%.