Towering 10-Day A/D Lines
The Iran war resulted in a tough March for US equities. In addition to the S&P 500 falling close to 10% versus its 52-week high, breadth took a measurable hit. As shown below, up until the first week of March, the 10-day advance/decline line, which measures the net share of index members rising or falling each day over ten days, was positive for most of the year. Once equities began selling off, this measure tanked, and at the low on March 13th, it reached the lowest level since 12/19/24, which also ranks as a 2nd percentile reading going back to 1990. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now say that low in breadth pre-dated the low in price (which came on March 30th). It has now been ten trading days since the low, and daily breadth has been positive all but twice (April 7th and April 10th were the only days with negative daily breadth). As a result, the 10-day A/D line is now at the highest levels since 7/10/25.
As we highlighted in yesterday’s Sector Snapshot, not only has the S&P 500’s 10-day A/D line risen sharply, but several other sectors have as well. As shown below, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Real Estate all went from extreme oversold readings (2+ standard deviations below the historical average) to extreme overbought readings today. While the reading isn’t quite as extreme, Tech has also seen a sharp rise in its line.
As might be evident from the one-year charts above, by far the most extended breadth measure comes out of the Real Estate sector. To give greater historical context, below we show the 10-day A/D line going back to September 2016, when it became a sector. With another move higher today, Real Estate’s 10-day A/D line is at the highest level since 2/2/23. The only other times the 10-day A/D line was more elevated were from January to February 2019 and in June 2020.
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Chart of the Day – Earnings Season Arrives
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/14/26 – Streaky
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“The clouds appeared and went away, and in a while they did not try anymore.” – John Steinbeck
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Can we make ten in a row? Along with the Dow and S&P 500, futures on the Nasdaq indicate a gain of over 0.5% at the open, and if those gains hold throughout the session, it would be the Nasdaq’s 10th day in a row of gains. Treasury yields are little changed, but at 4.299%, the 10-year yield is still well off its recent highs. Oil prices are also down over 2% to below $97 per barrel on reports Iran may pause shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to keep potential talks later this week from falling apart. As has been the case recently, signs of easing tensions have also put a bid under gold with the metal up 0.65% to $4,800 per ounce. Lastly, Bitcoin is up another 2% this morning and back above $74K to its highest level since St. Patrick’s Day. If those gains hold, it would also break the downtrend that has been in place since the highs late last year.
After a sluggish start to the week for Asian markets, the region surged overnight with the Nikkei up over 2%, while South Korea’s KOSPI rocketed 2.7% higher. Chinese stocks rallied more than 1% despite a stronger-than-expected trade surplus as imports surged 27.8% y/y compared to expectations for an increase of 11.1% while exports rose less than expected (2.5% vs 8.3%).
European stocks are also higher, although not by as much as in Asia. The STOXX 600 is up 0.6% with Germany leading the way higher (+1.0%) while the UK lags (+0.1%). One area of weakness in the region is the luxury goods sector, where weak results from LVMH drag that group lower.
The Nasdaq has now rallied over 12% since its intraday low on 3/30, and the rally ironically comes just as the index’s 50-day moving average (DMA) looks to cross down through its 200-DMA. That’s traditionally considered a bearish development, although history shows that theory is misplaced.
Since the rally off the March 30 lows, the Nasdaq hasn’t had a down day, rallying for nine straight days. That’s tied for the longest winning streak in the index since November 2021, and if today’s pre-market gains hold, it would be the index’s 34th double-digit winning streak. As shown in the chart below, these types of streaks were relatively common in the 1970s and 1980s, but their frequency has waned since 2000.
One driver of the Nasdaq’s gains has been semiconductors, which have been cooking. Since its low on 3/30, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rallied an impressive 27.6%. Making this even more impressive is that the index’s largest component – Nvidia (NVDA) – has rallied just 15% off its intraday low on 3/30. One stock in the sector stealing the show has been Intel (INTC), which, as we noted yesterday, has had its largest nine-day rally in at least 40 years. Whatever stock has been driving the SOX, the index has more than erased its declines from the Iran war and now trades at record highs.
Like the Nasdaq, yesterday’s rally took the SOX’s winning streak to nine days. That’s already tied for the longest winning streak since 2017, and if today’s pre-market gains hold, it would be just the fifth double-digit winning streak in the index’s history.
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The Closer – Fedspeak, Housing Affordability, Positioning – 4/13/26
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- Historically, Fedspeak’s level of hawkishness and dovishness has been correlated to forward equity returns.
- Recent Fedspeak has gotten significantly less dovish.
- Existing home sales showed a sharp decline to the lowest levels since 2023 amidst the surge in mortgage rates back to near 6.5%.
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/13/26
One Streak Ends, Others Make History
Over the weekend, ceasefire talks fell apart, and the Strait of Hormuz started facing a blockade this morning. Despite these negative catalysts leading to a negative tone at Monday’s open, equities rallied throughout the session with the S&P 500 finishing up over 1%. That return to green candles also meant the S&P 500 has now rallied in eight of the last nine sessions. In fact, Friday was the only down day recently, and that snapped a seven-day winning streak. As shown below, that was the longest streak of consecutive up days since another seven days last October. Going back to 2000, that was the 29th example of a winning streak of 7 days or more, with the longest going for nine days last May.
Again, winning streaks lasting at least 7 days have been somewhat uncommon. Filtering out those streaks to only look at those without another one in the prior six months, as was the case recently, there have been 48 instances since the start of the five-day trading week in 1953. As shown below, from the close of the first down day that ended those winning streaks, the S&P 500’s average performance has been modestly stronger than the norm and consistently positive in the weeks and months ahead.
The broad index isn’t alone in stringing together a number of up days in a row. Of all S&P 500 members, seven are currently on even longer winning streaks of at least nine trading days, with one stock, State Street (STT), now on a ten-day winning streak. In the charts below, we show how those streaks stack up versus their respective histories. None of these winning streaks has gone on long enough to be records, although STT and Microchip (MCHP) are each only one day away. We would note that most of these stocks, other than STT, are in the Tech sector or adjacent to it. Regarding Intel (INTC), its winning streak is one of many that have lasted 9 days throughout its history, but as we discussed in an earlier post, there hasn’t been a time since 1984 that it has risen by more in such a span.
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Chart of the Day: Software Chart + Longshots Update
What Decade is This?
“Dude, we’ re getting a flashback to the late 1990s.” Of the handful of stocks on the 52-week high list today, two notable standouts are Dell (DELL) and Intel (INTC). The two stalwarts of the 1990s tech boom have both rallied sharply, and on a mixed session for the market today, DELL is up over 5%, and INTC is up 3%.
The rally for INTC is especially noteworthy as sentiment towards the stock has made a complete 180-degree turn in the last year. A year ago, the stock traded below $20. Today, it’s over $60!
As shown above, shares of INTC never came close to testing their 200-day moving average (DMA) during the most recent pullback, and the rally over the last several days has only pushed the price to historically extreme levels relative to that long-term moving average. As of right now, INTC is trading 76.6% above its 200-DMA, which ranks among the widest spreads since at least 1984.
Back in the 1980s and 1990s, the spread exceeded 75% during a few other rallies, but this year the spread has reached record extremes. Earlier this year, the spread reached a record 87.99%. What makes this recent move more notable is that less than two years ago, INTC closed farther below its 200 DMA (-50.5%) than on any other day since 1984 except for one (4/4/01).
INTC’s latest short-term move also ranks as extreme. With a rally of 56.08% over the last nine trading days, INTC is on pace for its largest nine-day rally since at least 1984. Unlike the 200-DMA spread, which reached similar levels in the 1980s and 1990s, no other nine-day period in the last 42 years has seen anything even remotely similar in percentage terms to the rally the stock has seen since 3/30. In 1970, Intel adopted the slogan “Intel Delivers,” and 56 years later, the company’s stock just delivered like never before.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/13/26 – It Could Be Worse
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“Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances.” – Thomas Jefferson
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The week hasn’t even started yet, but it’s been volatile already as equity futures gapped down more than 1% at the open last night and then rallied right up until around 7 AM when Goldman (GS) reported. That stock is down over 4% in pre-market trading, and the S&P 500 is now set to gap down 0.63%.
The culprit behind this morning’s weakness is once again the Middle East, as President Trump’s plan to put a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has crude oil up over 7% and back above $100 per barrel. With crude oil up as much as it is, you could argue that equities should be down more based on the relationship between the two since the war started, but as earnings season kicks off, the market is starting to trade on more than just oil prices.
In Asia and Europe overnight and this morning, the overall trend is lower as major averages on both continents declined or are trading down about 1%. Gold prices are also trading down about 1%, while Bitcoin is only fractionally lower, just below $71K.
As mentioned above, futures are off the initial lows from last night, but with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on pace to gap down 0.62% at the open, it would be the third-largest downside opening gap on a Monday of the year. It would also break a streak of four straight weeks where the market gapped higher on a Monday. Even during a war, Mondays haven’t been that bad lately. For the entire year, though, SPY’s median gap on Mondays has been a decline of 0.08% with positive returns half of the time.
The weakest day of the week in terms of where the market opens has clearly been Thursday. For the entire year, the average downside gap on Thursdays has been a decline of 0.27%, and since the war started, SPY has gapped down on every Thursday. As bad as Thursdays have been at the open, Wednesdays have been solid. On the 14 Wednesdays so far in 2026, SPY has gapped higher 12 times for a median gain of 0.21%.
Where the market opens is one thing, but where it goes for the next 6.5 hours from the open to close is just as important. While Mondays have been modestly negative at the open, it has been the best day of the week from the open to close with a median gain of 0.40% and positive returns 75% of the time. With a median open-to-close gain of 0.24%, Tuesdays haven’t been as bad either. From there, though. The trading day only goes downhill from there, though. SPY’s median change from the open to close on Wednesday has been a decline of 0.14%, with positive returns barely more than a third of the time. Thursdays are even worse with a median decline of 0.23%. While Friday’s median open-to-close change has been slightly positive, since the war started, SPY has declined from the open to close on Fridays every time for a median decline of just over 1% (-1.04%).
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Brunch Reads – 4/12/26
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Poyekhali!: With the Artemis 2 astronauts splashing down on Friday after returning from their trip around the moon, we find this look back at history especially relevant. On April 12, 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first person to travel into space aboard Vostok 1. Launched by the Soviet Union, Gagarin exclaimed “Poyekhali!” which means “Let’s go!” and completed a single orbit of Earth in 108 minutes, reaching speeds of more than 17,000 mph.
The mission proved that humans could survive and function in space, marking a major milestone in the Space Race. Gagarin’s successful flight made him an international figure overnight and accelerated efforts by the United States to send astronauts into orbit. His achievement remains one of the most important moments in the history of space exploration.
Health & Wellness
Pharma of the Future (Northwestern Magazine)
Researchers are developing implantable “living pharmacies” that use engineered cells inside the body to produce and deliver drugs on demand, potentially improving adherence and allowing treatments to be adjusted in real time. By combining biology with electronics, these devices could treat conditions like cancer, diabetes, and sleep disorders while opening the door to more personalized and automated care. [Link]
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