The Closer – Liberation Day – 4/2/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a recap of “Liberation Day” (page 1) followed by a look into the Nasdaq’s intraday strength (page 2). We then review the latest vehicle sales data (page 3) including a brand by brand breakdown and auto stock performance (page 4). We then look at the latest employment data (page 5) and petroleum stockpile readings (page 6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/2/25
Chart of the Day – Airlines Falling Out of the Sky
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/2/25 – “Liberation Day”
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“There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it.” – Alfred Hitchcock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 put in a closing low on March 13th that established the first major low of this correction. So far, we’ve managed to hold above that level, but it’s the one to watch going forward. A close below the 3/13 low will mark a resumption of the downtrend that’s in place. For bulls, the next step in breaking the downtrend would be a close above last Tuesday’s high and then a series of higher highs and higher lows that eventually takes the index to new all-time highs. You can see the process that played out when we had the last major pullback in July/August in the chart below:
The Closer – Internationals vs. Domestics, PMIs, LMI – 4/1/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look at the performance of stocks with the greatest and least international revenue exposure and their response to tariff headlines (pages 1 and 2). We then pivot over to a look at credit activity (page 3) followed be a review of the latest economic data including construction spending (page 4), PMIs (page 5), LMI (page 6 and 7), JOLTS (page 8), and finally Indeed job postings (page 9).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 4/1/25
Bespoke Market Calendar — April 2025
Please click the image below to view our April 2025 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Chart of the Day – Positive Intraday Reversals
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Spring Clean-Up
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“On April Fools’ Day, believe nothing, trust no one, just like any other day.” – Unknown
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Below is a review of asset class performance in Q1 using our ETF matrix. For domestic index ETFs, it’s been a nasty run, although we’d note that seven of the eleven US sector ETFs finished the quarter higher.
Outside of the US, however, there was green nearly everywhere in Q1. While the S&P 500 (SPY) was down 4.3%, the all-world ex-US ETF (CWI) gained 5.9% during the quarter, and country ETFs like Brazil (EWZ), China (MCHI), France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), Spain (EWP), and the UK (EWU) were all up 10%+.
Commodity ETFs outside of agriculture also posted solid Q1 gains. Both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) gained more than 15%, while natural gas (UNG) rose 28.6%. Fixed-income ETFs posted solid Q1 returns as well.
Within US equities, the mega-caps accounted for nearly all of the S&P 500’s Q1 drop. As shown below, the five largest stocks in the S&P all fell more than 10% in Q1, and the ten largest are down an average of 11.4% YTD. The rest of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down an average of just 0.6% YTD.
The Closer – Quarter Over, Gap Down, Support – 3/31/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a look at the intraday performance of equities (page 1) followed by an update on the performance of the 60/40 portfolio (page 2). We then provide a rundown of asset performance in Q1 (page 3) including the historic disconnect between gold, international stocks, and the S&P 500 (page 4). We also provide a decile analysis of the quarter (page 5). We cap off with a final update of our Five Fed Manufacturing composite for March (pages 6 and 7).
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