Chart of the Day: Intraday Strength to Start the Week
The Closer – Tariff Talk, Private Credit, Consumers – 1/13/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with commentary on tariffs and the impacts on crude oil prices (page 1). We then check in on the latest news in private credit and earnings (page 2). Next, we review the latest data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (pages 3 and 4) before closing out with our weekly rundown of positioning data (pages 5-8).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/13/25
December 2024 Headlines
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 1/13/25 – Bumbling and Stumbling
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Global equities stumbled into the weekend on Friday, and they’re bumbling out of the gate to kick off the week. While Japan was closed, other Asian markets started off the week on a down note with the Hang Seng falling 1%, while India South Korea, and Australia all also saw at least 1% declines. Europe was open during much of Friday’s US sell-off, so it didn’t have as much to ‘catch up’ from this morning, but the STOXX 600 is still down close to 1% which is right in line with where US futures are trading this morning. The culprit behind the global weakness has primarily been interest rates as yields have been increasing worldwide. Add to that the relentless run in the dollar, and now oil prices moving up towards $80 per barrel, and it isn’t a good recipe for higher stock prices.
Large-cap tech was notably weak on Friday as it was the first day since September 11th, that the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opened and traded the entire session below its 50-day moving average. It’s been less than a month, but QQQ has established a relatively well-defined trend of lower highs and lower lows.
Brunch Reads – 1/12/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Flying to Football’s Pinnacle: Being Wild Card Weekend, we’re throwing it back to January 12th, 1969, when the New York Jets, led by quarterback Joe Namath, won Super Bowl III in Miami, Florida. Squared off against the Baltimore Colts, the Jets of the American Football League (AFL) came into the game as underdogs versus the dominant Colts of the National Football League (NFL), widely regarded as the superior league. The Colts had a stacked roster featuring quarterback Johnny Unitas, but Namath guaranteed a Jets victory over the Colts earlier that season. The Colts took control of the game early with a strong defensive showing, but Namath and the Jets began to find their rhythm as the game progressed. After a couple of touchdowns and a series of defensive stands from New York, the clock hit zeros with the final score of 16-7. The Jets’ victory lent credibility to the AFL, leading to the merger of the two leagues to form the modern NFL we know today.
Over 50 years later, Super Bowl III remains a celebrated chapter of football lore and marks the last time the Jets were in the Super Bowl, despite deep runs in the playoffs in 2010 and 2011 under Head Coach Rex Ryan and what was supposed to be a huge franchise turnaround these last couple of seasons after the team brought in future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers. Interestingly enough, Ryan has just interviewed for the open job with the Jets in what would be a massive reunion. If these last couple of seasons have proved anything, the Jets’ road back to the Super Bowl is going to be tough, no matter who is under center or calling the plays.
Cultural Trends
Growing Apart: Ideological Polarization between Teenage Boys and Girls (OSF)
Teenage boys and girls in Norway are more politically divided than ever, with the gap in their views hitting record highs over the last decade. A big part of this comes from more boys leaning right and saying things like “gender equality has gone too far,” while girls are moving in the opposite direction. What’s wild is that the divide doesn’t seem to come from political parties pushing their views, it’s more about shifting cultural attitudes, with gender equality debates driving almost half the split. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 1/10/25
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter provides an update on everything going on in markets as we kick off the new year. To read this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 1/10/25
Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) Q4 2024 earnings call.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is one of the world’s largest airlines, serving over 200 million customers annually across more than 300 destinations in over 50 countries. Delta closed 2024 with record-breaking results, reporting a $1.6 billion pre-tax profit for Q4, up over $500 million from the prior year. Corporate and leisure travel demand surged, with January seeing two record sales days. Premium revenue grew 8% YoY, driven by loyalty programs like SkyMiles, which added over 1 million new members. International markets, particularly the Transatlantic, outperformed expectations due to US travel demand. DAL discussed partnerships with YouTube and Uber and introduced AI-powered Delta Concierge. On better-than-expected results, DAL shares were up more than 10% on Friday morning, 1/10…
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Constellation Brands (STZ)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Constellation Brands’ (STZ) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Constellation Brands (STZ) is a premier producer of beer, wine, and spirits, known for iconic brands like Corona, Modelo, and others. In Q3 fiscal 2025, STZ discussed subdued consumer spending and elevated unemployment rates, particularly among Hispanic consumers. Despite that, the Beer Business achieved a 3.2% growth in depletions and a 3% increase in net sales. The company advanced over half of its target of 500,000 additional distribution outlets and introduced innovative pack formats, such as the 12-ounce Chelada cans. The Wine and Spirits segment faced a 14% decline in net sales due to demand headwinds and inventory de-stocking but saw growth in high-end brands like Meiomi and Kim Crawford following the divestiture of SVEDKA. STZ missed estimates on the top and bottom lines due in part to the noted consumer weakness, resulting in the stock sliding more than 16% on Friday 1/10…
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