Earnings Season Triple Plays: Final Q2 2016 Report
Here at Bespoke, our job is to identify winners and losers, and one of the ways we try to find earnings-season winners is through our list of “triple plays.”
Long-term Bespoke subscribers know how much we like triple plays, but for those that haven’t heard of the term, we came up with it back in the mid-2000s for companies that beat analyst earnings estimates, beat analyst revenue estimates and also raise guidance. Investopedia.com is one of the best online resources for financial markets education, and they’ve actually given us credit for coining the “triple play” term on their website. We consider triple play stocks to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we are constantly finding new long-term buy opportunities from this basket of names each quarter.
There were a total of 103 “triple plays” this season out of more than 2,500 earnings reports. That’s a relatively high count compared to the average earnings season, but it’s still just 4% of all earnings reports.
Throughout earnings season, Bespoke sends Premium and Institutional members its “Earnings Triple Plays Report.” The report keeps a running tally of recent triple plays, and it also provides a list of “Top Triple Plays.” We’ve just published our final Earnings Triple Plays Report for the just-completed earnings season, featuring a list of the 103 stocks that registered triple plays this earnings season plus the 30 that we’ve identified as having the most attractive chart patterns. Learn how to see the stocks below!
See our Top Earnings Season Triple Plays by signing up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now. Click this link for a 14-day free trial.
B.I.G. Tips – Economic Indicator Diffusion Pulls Back Towards Neutral
ETF Trends: US Sectors & Groups – 8/24/16
While broader Energy markets have taken a bit of a hit over the last few days, natural gas keeps ticking up. Biotech has also performed well, while gold continues to get hit with miners especially suffering. In FX, GBP has performed well via the FXB ETF, and small caps have outperformed the S&P 500 quite notably over the last week. Country ETFs have been led lower by Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa, but broad weakness in EM has been fairly consistent.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
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Energy Inventories Rise More Than Expected
After an unexpected build in inventories was reported by API on Tuesday evening, the Department of Energy’s (DoE) weekly inventory report also showed that crude inventories swelled in the last week. While traders were expecting stockpiles to fall by 800K barrels, they actually increased by 2.5 million. That now puts total inventories 189 million (53%) above their historical average for this time of year dating back to 1983. As shown in the chart below, since the middle of July (shaded box) crude oil inventories have risen by more than 4 million barrels. For this time of year, the 4.132 million barrel increase in inventories over the last five weeks has only been larger in six other years since 1983.
Like crude oil, gasoline inventories saw an unexpected build in stockpiles last week, but the build was not nearly as large. As shown in the chart below, gasoline stockpiles increased by 36K barrels compared to estimates for an increase of 1.7 million barrels. As the chart below shows, gasoline stockpiles remain well above their historical averages, but unlike crude oil, the pattern for gasoline has been following the seasonal pattern.
New Highs for Internet Stocks
Yesterday we highlighted the huge gains that the Bloomberg IPO index has seen over the last few months in this post. Below is a look at the index using our trading range charts. The first shows the action of the IPO index so far in 2016, while the second goes back further to the start of 2013. At the moment, the index is extended more than two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average (the top of the red zone), which is considered extremely overbought. As you can see in the longer-term chart, though, the index still has a ways to go to get back to its 2014 highs. Breaking above the top of its downtrend channel was a good first start, though.
Another group that has recently made a new high is the Internet group. Below we show trading range charts (2016 and since the start of 2013) for the Nasdaq Internet Group similar to the charts of the Bloomberg IPO index above. As shown, the Nasdaq Internet Group isn’t quite as overbought as the IPO index at the moment, but it has already made up all of its late 2015/early 2016 declines. Within the last two weeks the index took out its prior highs.
Facebook (FB) Sees Biggest Jump in Market Cap
Yesterday we published a list of 2016’s biggest winners in the Russell 3,000 thus far. Below we look at things a bit differently by highlighting the Russell 3,000 stocks that have seen the biggest increases in market cap so far in 2016. Of course, this list will be dominated by largecap stocks, but it’s an interesting data set nonetheless.
As shown, Facebook (FB) has added the most market cap in 2016 by far at +$62.23 billion. Amazon.com (AMZN) ranks second at +$45.15 billion. Numbers three and four may be a bit surprising since they’re not your typical growth stock, but Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has added the third most market cap at +$42.70 billion, and then Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) has added the fourth most at +$41.97 billion. AT&T (T), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Merck (MRK) rank fifth through eighth. The two smallest stocks on the list are NVIDIA (NVDA) and Newmont Mining (NEM). NVDA has added $15.93 billion in market cap with a YTD price gain of 91.31%. NEM has added $13.46 billion in market cap with a YTD price gain of 140.7%.
Dynamic Upgrades/Downgrades: 8/23/16
Bespoke CNBC Appearance (8/23/16)
Bespoke’s Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday to discuss the recent performance of some hot IPOs and how it compares to some hot IPOs of the past. To see Tuesday’s segment, please click on the image below.
The Closer 8/23/16 – Strategy Performance, Housing Huge
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we take a look at surging new home sales, a disappointing report on Manufacturing and Services from the Richmond Fed, and a review of several prominent strategy performances.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
Click here to start your no-obligation free Bespoke research trial now!
Best and Worst Performing Stocks of 2016
The average stock in the Russell 3,000 — whose index members make up roughly 98% of US equity market cap — is up just under 10% so far in 2016. There are 48 stocks in the index up more than 100%, and below is a list of the 30 best performing stocks in the index year to date. As shown, four Materials stocks top the list, with Coeur Mining (CDE) up the most at +496%. Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Gold Resource (GORO), and Hecla Mining (HL) round out the top four, all with gains of more than 235%. Other notables on the list of 2016’s big winners include Advanced Micro (AMD), US Steel (X), Newmont Mining (NEM) and Continental Resources (CLR).
While there are 48 stocks in the Russell 3,000 up more than 100%, there are 60 stocks down more than 50%. Nearly all of them are biotech stocks. In 2015 (and 2014 and 2013 for that matter), biotech stocks littered the list of best performers. This year, the chicken has come home to roost for many stocks in the biotech group. Of the 30 worst performing Russell 3,000 stocks year-to-date shown below, 20 are biotech related.
