The BESPOKE REPORT Newsletter — 9/2/16
Below is an updated look at our asset class performance matrix using key ETFs traded on US exchanges. For each ETF, we show its performance this past week, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date. This week we saw a number of country ETFs post big gains. Brazil (EWZ), Hong Kong (EWH), India (PIN), and Spain (EWP) all rose more than 3%. Domestically, the large-cap index ETFs rose roughly 0.50%, while small-caps and mid-caps gained more than 1%. The Financial sector (XLF) was a big winner on the week, while Energy (XLE), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Health Care (XLV) were all in the red. Silver (SLV) gained big as oil (USO) fell. Treasuries ended the week flat.
We analyze the Fed, today’s jobs report, earnings results, additional economic indicators, sentiment and more in this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter. You can read the entire thing by starting a 14-day free trial to our paid content below.
Have a great Labor Day weekend!
The Closer 9/2/16 – End of Week Charts
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
Click here to start your no-obligation free Bespoke research trial now!
Commodity Trading Range Charts
Below is an updated look at our trading range charts for four major commodities — oil, natural gas, gold and silver. The green shading in each chart represents between two standard deviations above and below the commodity’s 50-day moving average, and moves above or below the green zone are considered overbought or oversold. As shown, oil has traded lower over the last few weeks, but it’s still close to the middle of its range. Natural gas has been trending nicely off of its lows earlier this year, but it still hasn’t broken above its July 1st highs. That’s a breakout natural gas bulls want to see.
Gold and silver are both trading in nice long-term uptrend channels, and both are attempting to bounce off the bottom of those uptrend channels as we close out the week. So far, so good.
Awful Action for Tesla (TSLA)
Shares of Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) have had a rough two weeks, falling more than 12% since last Tuesday. The stock dipped back below the $200/share mark today. Below is a long-term trading range chart for TSLA going back to early 2013. What we’re highlighting here are two “lower tops” that have been made since the stock’s all-time high was reached back in mid-2014. It’s been two years now since Tesla’s stock price peaked at $291.42 on 9/4/14, and multiple resistance levels will now act as barriers to eventually getting back there.
ETF Trends: Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities – 9/2/16
Despite a pop today, oil has had an absolutely brutal run lower over the last few sessions. On the other side of the coin, with yen falling and the Nikkei rallying Japanese FX-hedged equities have outperformed strongly along with Brazil, China, and Hong Kong.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
B.I.G. Tips – Q3 Decile Analysis (So Far)
Sixth August Jobs Miss in a Row
Nonfarm Payrolls for August came out this morning and showed that the US added 151,000 jobs for the month. That was 29,000 weaker than the consensus economist estimate of 180,000. Using our Interactive Economic Indicators Database (available to Bespoke Institutional members), we looked back at all August NFP reports since 1998. As shown below, this was the sixth consecutive year that the August jobs report missed estimates going back to 2011. Since 1998, 15 of 19 August jobs reports have missed estimates, so today’s miss was definitely not out of the norm!
The Closer 9/1/16 – Weak Data Ahead of NFP
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we discuss the solid construction spending figures released today, where the devil was in the details. We also break down big misses from both auto sales and ISM Manufacturing, also released today.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
Click here to start your no-obligation free Bespoke research trial now!
Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot — 9/1/16
We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members. Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member. If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.
Below is one of the many charts included in this week’s Sector Snapshot, which is our trading range screen for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors. We discuss in more detail how to read the chart in the full version of the report, but basically the dot is where the sector is currently trading, while the tail end is where it was trading one week ago. As shown, the S&P 500 and seven of ten sectors are now back into “neutral” territory after trading “overbought” for much of the last two months. Telecom and Utilities — two defensive sectors — are in “oversold” territory, while the only sector that remains “overbought” is Financials.
To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
ETF Trends: International – 9/1/16
Japanese equities, banks (which we discussed in our Chart of the Day, sent to all levels of Bespoke subscribers today), and the USD are among the biggest gainers over the last week. South Africa, gold, and a smattering of EM countries have underperformed; oil is also having a frankly brutal run, down 6.5% in the last two sessions.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.