Bespoke CNBC Appearance (9/21)

Bespoke’s Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Fast Money on Tuesday evening to discuss the Fed and elections.  To view the segment please click on the image below.

cnbc092116

 

Equities Having Trouble Holding Their Weight

The phrase ‘trading heavy’ typically depicts a market environment where equities aren’t necessarily plunging, rather they can’t sustain gains so they drift lower.  The phrase also perfectly describes the environment we have been in for the last month.  While the declines haven’t necessarily been sharp (although 9/9 and 9/13 are an exception), it seems as though stocks have recently been opening higher only to fade and give up those gains during the trading day.

The table below shows the daily change in the S&P 500 tracking ETF from the open to close over the last four weeks.  As shown, including each of the last three trading days, SPY has traded down from the open to close in 13 of the last 20 trading days.  While that may not seem like much, it is actually the highest pace of open to close declines so far this year.  The last time SPY was this consistent to the downside from the open to closing bell was last December, which interestingly enough was the period leading up to December’s FOMC rate hike.

spy-change

 

Most Sectors at Bottom of Trend Channels

Below is a one-year trading range chart for the S&P 500.  The light blue shading represents the index’s normal range, which is one standard deviation above and below the 50-day moving average (white line).  Because of the sideways action we saw throughout the summer, the S&P’s range is very relatively tight right now.  It doesn’t take a big move to send the index into extreme overbought or oversold territory.  As of this morning, the index is actually still slightly oversold, but thus far it hasn’t broken any major technical support levels.

spxte0920

Below is a look at our trading range charts for the ten S&P 500 sectors.  Both Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary are trading more than two standard deviations below their 50-day moving averages.  Both sectors have yet to totally break down, though, and the Consumer Discretionary sector’s uptrend is still intact; both look due for a bounce here.  The Energy sector has pulled back to the bottom of the sideways range it has been in since April.  Look for it to hold support here.  The Financial sector is back above its 50-day moving average and holding up better than a lot of other sectors at the moment.  If it weren’t for company-specific issues at Wells Fargo (WFC) recently, the sector would be doing even better.

Health Care and Industrials are both sitting at the bottom of 9-month uptrend channels right now.  If they can hold support here and post a day or two of gains, they should trend back towards the top of the channel in the coming weeks.  The Materials sector is in a similar pattern as well.

Technology has been a major standout over the last few weeks.  As the rest of the market has traded into oversold territory, Technology is at the top of its trading range and looking to make new highs.  Finally, both Telecom and Utilities have formed new short-term downtrend channels after breaking through the bottom of their uptrend channels in late August.  Both have thus far managed to hold above their May lows, but if those levels break, technicians will be looking for additional declines.

condte0920

matrte0920

 

The Closer 9/20/16 – Three Central Banks Walk In To A Policy Meeting…

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we give an overview of three pending policy decisions from the BoJ (tonight), the Fed (tomorrow afternoon) and the RBNZ (tomorrow evening). We also break down this month’s Residential Construction report from the US Census.

Sample

The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here to start your no-obligation free Bespoke research trial now!

Most Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 3,000

Below is a list of the Russell 3,000 stocks that are currently the most hated by investors — the most heavily shorted stocks in the index.  The Russell 3,000 contains large, mid, and small cap stocks, making up roughly 98% of US equity market cap.  As shown below, Sears Holdings (SHLD) is the most heavily shorted stock with more than 65% of its float sold short.  With a YTD decline of 43.5%, the SHLD shorts are crushing it this year.  The same is true for Weight Watchers (WTW) and Insys Therapeutics (INSY).  Both of these stocks have insanely high short interest levels, and they’re both down more than 50% year-to-date.

Two more stocks in the Russell 3,000 have more than 50% of their float sold short — Adeptus Health (ADPT) and Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI).  Clayton Williams is up 166% year-to-date, so this is a stock where the shorts have gotten crushed recently.  A few other notables on the list of most heavily shorted stocks include Herbalife (HLF), Gogo (GOGO), Fitbit (FIT), GoPro (GPRO), Freshpet (FRPT), Shake Shack (SHAK), and recent IPO Acacia Communications (ACIA).

heavilyshorted

 

S&P 500 Most Extended Stocks

Below is a list of the 30 S&P 500 stocks that are currently trading the farthest above their 50-day moving averages.  For each stock, we also include our trading range screen which shows how overbought/oversold the stock is in relation to its 50-DMA in standard deviations.  As shown, NetApp (NTAP) is the farthest above its 50-DMA in the S&P 500 at +16.05%, but it’s just barely into overbought territory because it’s normally a relatively volatile stock.  E*Trade (ETFC) is 10% above its 50-DMA, but it’s more than two standard deviations above its 50-day.  Other notables on the list include Apple (AAPL), Tiffany (TIF), NVIDIA (NVDA), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).

Traders can use this screen to identify upside momentum names and also names that may be due for a pullback.  In the trading range screen, the dot represents where the stock is currently trading within its range, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago.  Stocks that are extended to the upside but down over the last week are names to target for additional “mean reversion.”

farthest-above-50

On the flip side, below is a list of the 30 S&P 500 stocks trading the farthest below their 50-day moving averages.  If you’re looking for names that may be due for mean reversion to the upside, this is a good place to start.  Stocks that are oversold but up over the last week may have already hit bottom and begun their ascent.  Most of the stocks below fit this criteria (dot is to the right of the tail).

Diamond Offshore (DO) is currently the farthest below its 50-DMA in the S&P 500 at -24.79%.  Tractor Supply (TSCO) ranks second at -20.24%, followed by First Solar (FSLR) at -18.27%.  Other notables on the list include Viacom (VIAB), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Hershey (HSY), Coach (COH), Vulcan Materials (VMC), and Campbell Soup (CPB).

30-below

 

ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 9/20/16

Bond yields have started to edge off again and that’s helped push up global asset prices a bit over the last week. Biotech, emerging Asia, and semis continue to outperform while Energy and Italy (hit by negative headlines for Banca Monte dei Paschi over the last few days) have been the worst performers. GBP has also gotten hit hard.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

Featured Tools

Bespoke Chart Scanner Bespoke Trend Analyzer Earnings Report Screener Seasonality Database Economic Monitors

Additional Features

Wealth Management Free Charting Bespoke Podcast Death by Amazon

Categories