Bespoke’s Q4 Outlook
Today we hosted our Q4 Outlook presentation for all Bespoke clients at 2 pm ET in which we discussed our views on what to expect for the balance of 2016. The Q4 Outlook presentation and audio recording of the call are available for paid members only. You can become a member with one of our three subscription levels, descriptions of which can be seen at our Bespoke Research Packages page. If you are already a member, please login here to view the replay and slides.
ETF Trends: International – 9/30/16
Oil-related ETFs continue to dominate the list of the best performing ETFs over the past week. The list is also littered with other commodity indices, countries, and sectors as well. Underperformance is visible from natural gas, pharma, biotech, and yield plays like Utilities or REITs.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
Q3 Rotation Out of What Worked in First Half
The average stock in the S&P 500 gained nearly 4% in the third quarter of 2016, but we found an interesting performance divergence based on performance in the first half of the year. Below we’ve broken the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks each) based on first half performance. The 50 stocks that did the best in the first half are in decile 1 (marked “Best” in the chart), while the 50 stocks that did the worst in the first half are in decile 10 (marked “Worst” in the chart). As shown, the top two deciles of the best performing stocks in the first half of 2016 both averaged declines in the third quarter. At the same time, the 50 stocks that did the worst in the first half gained an average of 11.8% in the third quarter. Judging by this data, investors clearly rotated out of winners in the first half and into the losers.
If you would like to see more Q3 analysis plus our thoughts on Q4, please choose a monthly or annual membership option now and check out our just-published Q4 outlook report.
S&P 500 Quick-View Chart Book — 9/30/16
The Closer 9/29/16 – Growth Updated, DB Mythbusting
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we review today’s revised Q2 growth numbers from the BEA and also update our tracking of growth estimates from two regional Fed indices. Finally we discuss the Deutsche Bank situation.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
Click here to start your no-obligation free Bespoke research trial now!
Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot: 9/29/16
We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members. Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member. If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.
Below is one of the many charts included in this week’s Sector Snapshot, which is our trading range screen for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors. We discuss in more detail how to read the chart in the full version of the report, but basically the dot is where the sector is currently trading, while the tail end is where it was trading one week ago. As shown, today’s pullback left the S&P 500 and three of ten sectors (Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials) in oversold territory.
To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
ETF Trends: US Sectors & Groups – 9/29/16
With the OPEC decision yesterday yielding a big boost for oil bulls, the top performing ETFs over the last week are littered with crude-related names. Long-term Treasuries have also performed very well, as have the Semis. Turkey, Biotech, Mortgage Real estate, and India top the list of the worst performers.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
Chart of the Day: Vegas, Baby!
the Bespoke 50 — 9/29/16
Jobless Claims: How Low Can You Go?
Although jobless claims saw a slight increase in the latest week, they continue to defy expectations with just how low they come in week after week. In this week’s report, first-time claims increased from 251K up to 254K versus expectations of 260K. This week’s print makes it 82 straight weeks that claims have been below 300K, which is the longest streak in nearly half a century.
What really stood out about this week’s report is the four-week moving average, which fell to 256K, tying the cycle low reading from April, which was the lowest level since 1972. Looking ahead to next week, provided there are no upward revisions, any reading below 259K will take the four-week moving average to a new cycle low.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), jobless claims dropped back down below 200K to 198K. For the current week of the year, that is more than 100K below the average of 300K dating back to 2000, and also the lowest reading for the current week of the year since 1972.
