Dynamic Upgrades/Downgrades: 12/22/16
Jobless Claims “Spike” to a Six Month High
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Jobless claims came in higher than expected this week rising from 254K up to 275K, which is the highest weekly reading since early June and well above the 257K consensus forecast. It was also tied for the second largest weekly increase in claims since February. It’s hard to get too worked up about a jobless claims print at 275K, which is low by historical standards, but anytime you see a sizable increase, you have to be on the lookout for any signs that the overall trend is shifting. As it stands now, claims have been under 300K for 94 straight weeks, but if they start to approach or top that 300K threshold, it may cause some uneasiness.
The four-week moving average for jobless claims now stands at 263.75K, which is 14.25K above the post-recession low of 249.5K reached eleven weeks ago back in early October. As weekly claims start to trend higher, that sub-250K four-week moving average is looking likelier and likelier to stand for some time.
On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, claims increased to 315.6K from 305.3K. For this time of year, though, this week’s NSA print was more than 110K below the average for the current week going back to 2000 and the lowest for the current week of the year since 1969!
the Bespoke 50 — 12/22/16
Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago. Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” has nearly doubled the performance of the S&P 500. Through today, the “Bespoke 50” is up 115.8% since inception versus the S&P 500’s gain of 65.4%.
To view our “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks, sign up for Bespoke Premium ($99/month) at this checkout page and get your first month free. This is a great deal!
Bulls Under 50% For 103rd Straight Week
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Given the upcoming holiday weekend and individual investors focusing their attention on other things, it is little surprise that sentiment was little changed in the latest week. According to the weekly survey from AAII, bullish sentiment declined from 44.66% down to 44.61%. At 0.05%, you can’t get much of a smaller decline than that. While the move was insignificant, the level certainly was, as it represents the 103rd straight week where bulls have not been in the majority.
While bullish sentiment was little changed, bearish sentiment saw a relatively larger move. In this week’s survey, the percentage of pessimists dropped from 32.33% down to 29.15%.
Bespokecast Episode 4 — Joe Weisenthal — Now Available on iTunes, GooglePlay, Stitcher and More
We’re happy to announce that the newest episode of Bespokecast is now available to the general public both here and via the various podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe to Bespokecast on your preferred podcast app of choice to gain access to our full collection of episodes. We’d also love for you to provide a review as well!
In our newest conversation on Bespokecast, we speak with Bloomberg Markets Managing Editor Joe Weisenthal. Joe is a living clearinghouse for information and news on financial markets, with a huge presence on Twitter, the Odd Lots podcast co-hosted with Tracy Alloway, and a daily show on Bloomberg TV (What Did You Miss?). He’s been on the forefront of financial media since the mid-2000s, starting TheStalwart.com before joining Business Insider early in that company’s ascent in the digital media space. Joe has a fascinating perspective on markets and the media that cover them. In our hour-long conversation, we cover a range of topics, including his career path, how he thinks about the modern media landscape, the disconnect between accepted wisdom and actual events this year, and how becoming a father has impacted his career. We had a lot of fun recording this conversation and we hope you enjoy it!
Each new episode of our podcast will feature a special guest to talk markets with, and Bespoke subscribers receive special access before it’s made available to the general public. If you’d like to try out a Bespoke subscription in order to gain access to these podcasts in advance, you can start a two-week free trial to check out our product. To listen to episode 4 or subscribe to the podcast via iTunes, GooglePlay, OvercastFM, or Stitcher, please click below.
The Closer 12/21/16 – Snoozing Ahead Of Saint Nick
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look at the extremely tight range on the S&P 500 today, the impact of higher rates on home prices, and today’s existing home sales report.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!
Holiday Snooze-Fest for Markets
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The spread between the S&P 500’s intraday high and its intraday low today was just 0.26%. That ranks in the top 25 for most boring days over the last 30+ years (our intraday data goes back to 1984). It’s not surprising given the holidays. Markets nearly always die down at this time of year. You may remember the chart below if you’ve been reading Bespoke throughout the year — we’ve posted it a few times already. It shows the S&P 500’s average absolute percentage change for each trading day of the year going back to 1928. As you can see, daily volatility runs between +/-0.60% and +0.80% over the first two and a half quarters of the year before picking up significantly from late September through early November. Then we see the daily action fall off a cliff from mid-November through the end of the year, which is where we currently sit.
Chart of the Day: Sector Performance in Year One of Election Cycle
The Bespoke Report — 2017 — “Valuation”
Our 2017 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better and better each year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of dealing with financial markets as we enter 2017. And to say that 2017 should be an interesting year for asset classes would be an understatement given the huge rotation we’ve already seen in just a few weeks since the Presidential Election was held back on November 8th.
The 2017 Bespoke Report contains sections like Washington and Markets, Economic Cycles, Market Cycles, Washington, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. In this year’s edition, we’ll also be featuring our new “Trump Index” of stocks that we expect to perform best in 2017 based on the new administration.
Over the next few weeks until the full publication is sent to paid members on December 29th, we’ll be releasing individual sections as we complete them. Today we have published the “Valuation” section of the 2017 Bespoke Report, which looks at a variety of different valuation metrics for the broader market as well as individual sectors. We answer just how overvalued (or undervalued?) this market really is.
To view this section immediately and also receive the full 2017 Bespoke Report when it’s published on December 29th, simply sign up for a 30-day free trial to Bespoke Premium. It’s that easy!
The Bespoke Report — 2017 — “The Year in Headlines”
Our 2017 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better and better each year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of dealing with financial markets as we enter 2017. And to say that 2017 should be an interesting year for asset classes would be an understatement given the huge rotation we’ve already seen in just a few weeks since the Presidential Election was held back on November 8th.
The 2017 Bespoke Report contains sections like Washington and Markets, Economic Cycles, Market Cycles, The Fed, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. In this year’s edition, we’ll also be featuring our new “Trump Index” of stocks that we expect to perform best in 2017 based on the new administration.
Over the next week until the full publication is sent to paid members on December 29th, we’ll be releasing individual sections as we complete them. Today we have published the “Year in Headlines” section of the 2017 Bespoke Report, which provides a month-by-month and day-by-day look at the major financial news headlines that impacted markets throughout 2016.
To view this section immediately and also receive the full 2017 Bespoke Report when it’s published on December 29th, simply sign up for a 30-day free trial to Bespoke Premium. It’s that easy!