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Whether you want to call it skepticism, self-control, or downright stubbornness, the fact that bullish sentiment has been so restrained even as US equities continue to trade to record highs is amazing.  In this week’s survey from AAII, bullish sentiment on the part of individual investors dropped from 37.01% down to 31.58%, marking the second straight week where bullish sentiment has declined by five percentage points or more.  That hasn’t happened since May.  This week’s survey also marked the 108th straight week where bullish sentiment was below 50%.

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Bearish sentiment didn’t see much of an increase this week, rising from 32.68% up to 33.49%.  The key here, though, is that bearish sentiment now exceeds bullish sentiment for the first time since the election.  The DJIA may be at 20K, but individual investors want no part of it.

Below is a chart of total stock market capitalization for stocks in the Russell 3,000 going back to 2002.  We used the Russell 3,000 since its members make up more than 98% of US market cap.

As shown below, total US market cap has moved solidly above the $25 trillion mark over the last couple of weeks.  Since Trump won on election night back in early November 2016, US market cap has risen $1.9 trillion.  In case you’re wondering, US market cap rose $12.3 trillion from Election Day 2008 through Election Day 2016 ($11.4 trillion up to $23.7 trillion).

Below is a list of the 40 largest stocks in the US.  In the table, we show how much each company’s market cap has increased or decreased since Election Eay 2016.  As mentioned above, the US has seen its total market cap increase by $1.9 trillion over that span.  The 40 largest stocks in the US account for $572 billion of that $1.9 trillion gain.  Of the 40 largest stocks, it’s three behemoth Financial companies that have seen the biggest jumps in market cap since Election Day.  Bank of America (BAC) has actually jumped the most with a 37% gain, which equates to $64.3 billion added in market cap.  JP Morgan (JPM) has added $57 billion in cap, and Wells Fargo (WFC) has added $55.6 billion.  You’ll likely notice that Goldman Sachs (GS) doesn’t even make the list.  With a market cap of $99 billion, Goldman just barely misses the cut in the top 40.  GS is currently the 44th largest stock in the S&P 500.  When it comes to the Dow 30 gains since Election Day, though, Goldman — due to its high share price — has been the biggest contributor.

Apple (AAPL) has seen its market cap jump $48.6 billion since Election Day, while Alphabet (GOOGL) has jumped $31.5 billion.  On a combined basis, Apple and Alphabet now add up to $1.22 trillion.  Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Facebook add up to $2.5 trillion in cap.

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It was a mixed jobless claims report this week as first-time claims rose from extremely low levels and came in higher than expected.  While economists were expecting first time claims to come in at a level of 247K, the actual reading came in at 259K.  That 22K increase in weekly claims was enough to rank as the largest one-week increase since April 2014. That said, even at 259K, current levels are extremely low by historical standards with the most recent print representing the 99th straight week where claims were below 300K.

While this week saw a large increase in claims, because the number from four weeks ago was even higher, the four-week moving average actually declined to 245.5K from last week’s level of 247.5K.  That puts the four-week moving average at its lowest level since November 1973.

On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, the report was also positive as claims declined another 69.8K down to 280.5K.  For the current week of the year, that’s the lowest reading since 1969, and is more than 137K below the average of 418K for the current week of the year dating back to 2000.

With US equity markets seeing a jump to start the week, below is an updated look at our S&P 500 sector trading range charts.  The first chart below looks at the broad S&P 500.  We’ve drawn lines to represent the top and bottom of the index’s long-term uptrend channel.  As you can see, the S&P is currently slightly overbought but not overly extended at current levels.  Another 1% gain or so and it will be at the top of its channel, though.  At some point investors can expect to see some consolidation within this uptrend.  Only if we get a break below the bottom of the uptrend channel would it be a bearish signal.

We’ll quickly go through our thoughts on each sector.  Consumer Discretionary is similar to the S&P 500 in that it’s trading within a long-term uptrend channel and currently right near the top of it.  Consumer Staples looks much different.  After trending downward from mid-2016 through year-end, the sector has recently broken above the top of its downtrend.

The Energy sector broke out of a tight range after the election, but recently it has pulled back to key support as we highlight in the chart.  The Financial sector made a big leg higher following the election and is now forming a new near-term uptrend channel.  At current levels the Financial sector isn’t even overbought due to its trading range shifting upward.

Health Care has the worst looking chart of the cyclical sectors.  It managed to break above its downtrend recently, but over the last couple of weeks it has trended lower once again.  Industrials looks similar to Consumer Discretionary and the broad S&P 500 — it’s trading within a well-defined uptrend channel and is now slightly overbought.

The Materials sector has surged over the last week, which has actually pushed it above the top of its uptrend channel.  This could be the start of a new leg higher similar to the one the Financial sector experienced a couple of months ago.  Technology is breaking out to a new 52-week high as well.

The Telecom sector is basically trendless and has been for quite some time, while the Utilities sector is struggling due to higher interest rates.  Don’t expect gains for Utilities stocks unless the 10-year yield begins to drop again.

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Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC this morning to discuss markets and the Dow’s recent leg higher. To view the segment, please click on the image below.