Another Week of Sub 250K Jobless Claims – Yawn
It used to be that a weekly print below 300K in jobless claims was a big deal, but these days a print below 250K doesn’t even raise much of an eyebrow. This week’s report was another example. While economists were expecting first time claims to come in at 245K, the actual reading came in at 239K, marking the 6th time in the last seven weeks that claims printed below 250K. This was also the 102nd straight week where claims came in below 300K. To put the recent levels of jobless claims in perspective, initial jobless claims have been below 240K in four of the last seven weeks, but from 1973 through October 2016, they didn’t go below that level once!
While jobless claims remained low this week, the four-week moving average actually increased slightly, rising from 244.75K to 245.25K. However, barring a reading above 260K next week, we should see another cycle low for this measure.
Finally, even with the impressive reading on the seasonally adjusted reading, the most impressive aspect of this week’s report was probably the non-seasonally adjusted level. This week’s reading fell by 13.6K down to 246K. For the current week of the year, this week’s reading is more than 125K below the average since 2000. In fact, since the weekly claims release began in 1967, there has never been a lower reading for the current week of the year. Impressive!
the Bespoke 50 — 2/16/17
Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago. Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” has beaten the S&P 500 by 42 percentage points. Through today, the “Bespoke 50” is up 115% since inception versus the S&P 500’s gain of 72.4%.
To view our “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks, sign up for Bespoke Premium ($99/month) at this checkout page and get your first month free. This is a great deal!
ETF Trends: International – 2/16/17
Over the past week numerous global equity indices made new highs, and it wasn’t just about the US. Brazil, Israel, Poland, and Taiwan are just of the few major outperformers. Within the US equity markets biotech, pharma and banks outperformed. Natural gas continues to fall after a smaller than expected draw in natural gas inventories reported this morning. Treasuries, oil, energy commodities, Indonesia, and New Zealand all underperformed as well.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
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As Neutral As It Gets
When it comes to market sentiment, the latest data from AAII shows a picture that is just about as neutral as it gets. However, given the fact that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently in the middle of seven-day winning streaks, one would expect a little bit more conviction. As shown in the chart below, bullish sentiment this week came in at 33.09%. This is the fifth straight week that bullish sentiment has been below 40%, and the 111th straight week that bulls have failed to take a majority, and that makes this the longest sub 50% run in bullish sentiment in the history of the AAII survey. With bulls not even surpassing the one-third mark this week, the record streak looks set to continue for at least a little while longer.
Like the bulls, slightly less than a third (32.36%) of investors placed themselves in the bearish camp this week, but with stocks at record highs, you would expect a low level of bearish sentiment.
Finally, the only category of sentiment that was above one-third this week was neutral sentiment which came in at 34.55%.
Chart of the Day: Can Economic Surprises Keep It Up?
40 New All-Time Highs
After 36 all-time highs on Monday and 24 on Tuesday, Wednesday’s reading was 40. So just under 10% of S&P 500 stocks hit all-time highs yesterday.
Below is yesterday’s full list of S&P 500 all-time highs. A whopping 28.6% of Financial sector stocks hit all-time highs, meaning a good chunk of the sector has now recovered all of its Financial Crisis losses.
The Closer — Data Deluge — 2/15/17
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we recap data today from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), the Fed (industrial production), and the US Treasury (international capital flows).
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Chart of the Day – Lucky Number Seven for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Fixed Income Weekly – 2/15/17
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s note, we review recent pricing of Fed moves over the next year and following year, as well as looking at some mutual funds which should outperform in a rising rate environment.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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ETF Trends: US Sectors & Groups – 2/15/17
Steel and solar are the unlikely duo sitting atop our list of the best performing ETFs over the past week. Brazil, Banks, South Africa, and Israel are other strong performers from the last five days. On the losing side of the coin long-term Treasuries, gold miners, natural gas, and the yen all continue to get destroyed. US equity yield plays like Utilities have underperformed while gold and other dollar crosses also lag.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.










