Chart of the Day: Beware the Ides of March?
Fixed Income Weekly – 3/15/17
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s note, we examine the return of carry and roll in the front end of global interest rate markets.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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ETF Trends: Hedge – 3/15/17
Emerging markets are common at the top of our best performers list, with South Korea, India, and South Africa all featuring prominently. European equities continue to outperform, while metals and steel producers have recovered somewhat. Oil prices have risen in the last 24 hours but are still down significantly WoW, with Transports, MLPs, and precious metals also underperforming.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
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Retail Sales Rest
After a blowout retail sales report for January, this morning’s release for February showed a much more subdued, although still positive, pace of retail sales. On a headline basis, Retail Sales rose 0.1% m/m which was right inline with expectations. Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, today’s report was also right inline with expectations with growth of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Getting back to January’s report, in addition to being considerably better than expected in the initial release, revisions pushed the growth levels even higher, with headline being revised up to 0.6% from 0.4%, and Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas both being revised up above 1%.
While headline retail sales were uneventful, underneath the service there were some major moves. One of those moves concerns online sales, which have just been sucking up share like a vacuum. As just one example, take a look at the chart below which shows how long each of the thirteen sectors in the Retail Sales report has seen m/m increases. At 25 months and counting, the current streak for online is more than four times as long as the next closest sector Building Materials. Never before in the history of the Retail Sales report (going back to 1993) has any sector seen a similar streak of m/m gains in sales.
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Homebuilder Sentiment Soars
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Homebuilder sentiment for the month of March came in significantly stronger than expected this morning, rising to 71 from last month’s level of 65 and expectations for a reading of 65 as well. As shown in the chart below, this month ranks as the highest reading since the height of the housing bubble back in June 2005. Just to illustrate how strong homebuilder sentiment has been in the last few months, going all the way back to 2003, this reading has exceeded expectations by 6+ points just five times and two of those occurrences were in the last four months.
The table to the right breaks down this month’s report by Present and Future Sales, Traffic, and Regions, and no matter what metric you look at. sentiment was more optimistic in March compared to February. Like the headline reading, cycle highs were also seen in every category and region except the Northeast and West. To see Bespoke’s full line of macro and micro research, sign up for one of our premium membership options today! You won’t be disappointed.
Bespoke’s “Industry Insights” Report — Metals & Mining — 3/15/17
Today we’ve published the third edition of our new “Industry Insights” report that’s available to Bespoke Institutional subscribers. Our “Industry Insights” report provides more in-depth industry/sector/group coverage than we’ve previously offered. In our previous edition, we took a look at Restaurants. This month, we cover the Metals & Mining industry. In addition to a top-down overview of the industry, we also look specifically at FCX (Freeport-McMoRan), CLF (Cliffs Natural Resources), NEM (Newmont Mining), RGLD (Royal Gold), and AA (Alcoa). Over the next few months, we’ll be publishing reports on more industries until we build a pretty extensive coverage list.
Below is a snapshot of the first page from this month’s report. To access the full 11-page PDF, sign up for a two-week free Bespoke research trial today. In addition to this report, you’ll also receive everything else we publish on a daily basis, starting with our Morning Lineup and finishing with The Closer each night.
The Closer — Thematic Theories, Vapid Volatility, PPI Punchy — 3/14/17
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we look at relative performance of various US equity market themes, spend a couple pages charting recent volatility themes, and dissect this month’s PPI report.
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The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!
Chart of the Day – Problems Problems Problems
B.I.G. Tips – March Fed Days
ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 3/14/17
International equities continue to outperform with 6 of the top 9 ETFs over the last 5 days (among the universe we track) representing country indices. Gold miners, natural gas, biotech, and health care have also outpeformed. The biggest declines have come from Energy and crude oil, with 9 of the 10 worst performing ETFs we tracking representing oil or oil-related sectors.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.