After two straight weeks where individual investor sentiment saw some improvement, this week’s survey from AAII showed that individual investors returned to their bearish ways.  In last week’s survey, bullish sentiment reached as high as 35.28% (which is still low by historical norms), but this week nearly all of the last two weeks of improved sentiment was erased as bullish sentiment barely held on to 30%, falling just over five percentage points to 30.22%.  For those keeping score at home, it has now been 117 weeks since more than half of individual investors were in the bullish camp.

On the other side of the ledger, bearish sentiment ticked higher this week, rising from 30.5% up to 37.4%.  In the last two weeks, we had seen some moderating in the bearish tone of individual investors, but it looks like they are getting right back to their bearish ways.

When it comes to economic indicators, it used to be that weekly jobless claims were one of the most reliable to deliver a positive report.  In recent weeks, though, that hasn’t been the case as claims have come in higher than expected in each of the last four weeks.  In this week’s report, economists were expecting the headline reading to come in at a level of 247K from last week’s reading of 261K, but the actual decline was smaller at just 3K to 258K.  The last time jobless claims have been higher than expected four weeks in a row was back in January of last year, and to find the last time claims exceeded forecasts for five straight weeks, you have to go all the way back to November 2013.  Despite the weaker than expected readings, however, we would still note that claims remain very low, coming in below 300K for the last 108 weeks.

The four-week moving average also saw quite an increase this week, rising from 246.5K up to 254.25K.  That 7.75K increase is the largest one-week jump in the four-week moving average since February 2015.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, jobless claims still remain encouraging.  This week’s print came in at 228.3K, which was the lowest level for the current week of the year since 1973 and 94K below the average level of 322.4K for the current week of the year dating back to 2000.

It’s been awhile since we last provided an update on national average gas prices, but recent trends are definitely worth highlighting. The table to the right shows the YTD change in gas prices based on AAA data this year and at the same point in each prior year dating back to 2005.  With average prices at the pump down nearly 2% on the year, this is the first year where prices have actually been down YTD at this point in the year.  This is a pretty big divergence from the overall average gain of 12.5% that is normal for this point in the year.  Looking at the year by year returns, there has definitely been a trend in recent years where prices didn’t start off the year as strong as they have in the past, but this year’s decline is a bit extreme.

The chart below further illustrates this trend as it compares changes in prices YTD this year to a composite of the average YTD change for all prior years since 2005.  By this point in the year, prices are typically already in rally mode leading up to the summer driving season.  With oil prices weak this year, though, that seasonal lift has yet to materialize.

Finally, the chart below shows the year/year (y/y) change in gas prices going back to 2006.  After prices bottomed in early 2016, the y/y change in prices began to recover and quickly accelerated to the upside the further away we moved from the lows.  In late 2016, the y/y change in prices turned positive for the first time in over two years, and then quickly spiked to over 30% in February.  As quickly as that y/y change increased, though, it has been declining even faster and is now just barely in double-digits at 12.25%, and if prices don’t start accelerating to the upside the y/y change will likely fall back to negative levels.  The reason this is important is that it illustrates a trend we have seen throughout the commodity space in recent months, where base effects have had an exaggerated impact on y/y prices changes.  Now that those low levels are falling further out than a year, though, the percentage changes are looking a lot less dramatic.  This is also likely to start showing up in inflation statistics which have recently been lifting to multi-year highs on a y/y basis.  Going forward, though, some of that upward pressure is likely to subside.

For traders with a short-term time horizon who are looking for big moves over a short period, we have updated our list of the S&P 1500 stocks trading above $10 that have the largest intraday high-low ranges (based on the average percent spread between the intraday high and low over the last 50 days).  The stocks are grouped based on whether they have a rising or falling 50-day moving average (DMA).  Stocks highlighted in gray are new to the list this month.

The S&P 500 may be within 2% of its all-time high, but the majority of stocks making up our list of most volatile stocks are currently in downtrends.  As shown below, just 21 stocks have rising 50-day moving averages, while 29 have 50-DMAs that are in decline.  Of the 50 stocks listed, just fifteen currently have average daily ranges of more than 5%, further illustrating how overall volatility is low.  Also, of those fifteen stocks, just five are trading above $20 per share.  In terms of sector representation, seven out of the eleven major sectors made the list.  Health Care is the most well-represented sector with 17 stocks, followed by Energy with ten, and Consumer Discretionary with nine.  Looking through the list, you’ve probably never heard of most of the names listed, but there are some household names including AMD, Restoration Hardware (RH), which are both in uptrends, as well as US Steel (X) and Abercrombie (ANF), which are in downtrends.  Finally, given that most the stocks have relatively low share prices, they may be volatile, but they don’t necessarily have very large swings.  That said, the highest priced stock listed (Eagle Pharma- EGRX) trades at over $80 per share, implying an average daily high/low range of just over $3 a day.