B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q4 2025
During the just-completed Q4 2025 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 98 earnings triple plays out of just over 1,100 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks. That’s 110 fewer than the 208 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.
What is a triple play? When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance. We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com. We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member.
To read our quarterly triple play recap and see some of the triple plays with intriguing price charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 2/19/26
Best Start for Consumer Staples in 35+ Years
Through the first 30 trading days of 2026, the Consumer Staples sector gained 15.6%. That’s easily the best start to a year for Staples since at least 1990 (when our daily sector price data begins). Prior to 2026, the strongest start to a year for Staples was a 9.2% gain through the first 30 trading days of 1997.
While Consumer Staples has been soaring, the cyclical Consumer Discretionary sector has been declining, falling 5% through the year’s first 30 trading days.
With Staples up 15% and Discretionary down 5%, the 20 percentage point spread between the two is a new record through 30 trading days (going back to 1990). No other years have been even remotely close.
The surge in Staples to start 2026 has left the defensive Staples sector ETF (XLP) up more than Consumer Discretionary (XLY) over the last twelve months. The chart below resembles the classic “tortoise and the hare” race, doesn’t it? Staples slowly moved sideways throughout the first half of 2025 and then slowed even more in the last five months of the year. Discretionary plummeted to start 2025 during the tariff tantrum but then decided to start competing after the first quarter mile. Discretionary surged past Staples last August and didn’t look back. That is until the calendar year turned to 2026. While Discretionary took a breather, Staples came from behind down the final stretch to win the race! Of course, in markets, the race is never over, but you get the point.
The reason Consumer Discretionary has been so weak is because its two largest stocks have struggled to start the year. As shown below, Amazon (AMZN) is down 11.5% YTD, while Tesla (TSLA) is down 8.5%. These two stocks have a combined market cap that’s nearly $1 trillion bigger than the combined market cap of the remaining 46 stocks in the sector!
Of the 15 largest Consumer Discretionary stocks shown in the graphic below, ten are actually up on the year.
The performance of the 15 largest Consumer Staples stocks to start the year has been eye-popping. Each of the seven largest Consumer Staples stocks are up 10%+ on the year, while all 15 stocks listed are in the green.
There’s a way to get around the top-heaviness of the market, though, and that’s by focusing on the equal-weight versions of sector and index ETFs.
As shown below, the equal-weight versions of Consumer Staples (RSPS) and Consumer Discretionary (RSPD) are much more closely aligned over the past year. That’s because the average stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector has done better than Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) in recent months.
If you’d like to simply bet on the average stock in a sector rather than having more exposure to the biggest stocks, we created the graphic below that lists ETF options for both cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 sectors.
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Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Leidos (LDOS)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Leidos’ (LDOS) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Leidos (LDOS) is a national security, defense technology, and health services company serving the US Department of War, the intelligence community, the Veterans Administration, the FAA, and allied governments. It operates across integrated air defense systems, cyber, space payloads, unmanned maritime vehicles, IT modernization, energy infrastructure engineering, and managed health services. LDOS delivered a strong 2025 despite a six-week government shutdown, growing adjusted EBITDA margins 120 basis points to 14.1% and non-GAAP EPS by 17%. The company posted back-to-back quarters of 1.3x book-to-bill, with $7 billion in awards slipping from Q4 into 2026 and $20 billion in pending awards. Management is tripling CapEx to $350 million to scale production on IFPC (Indirect Fire Protection Capability) missile defense, hypersonics, and maritime autonomy programs, while negotiating co-investment frameworks with the Department of War. The $2.4 billion ENTRUST acquisition positions Leidos as a leading US energy engineering firm. Guidance calls for up to 4% revenue growth in 2026, accelerating toward double digits by year-end, with Golden Dome funding and FAA modernization flagged as upside catalysts not yet incorporated into guidance. LDOS reported better-than-expected EPS on weaker revenue, as the stock fell 8% on 2/17…
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Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Toll Brothers (TOL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Toll Brothers’ (TOL) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Toll Brothers (TOL) is the largest luxury homebuilder in the United States, serving affluent move-up, move-down, and first-time buyers at an average delivered price of roughly $977,000. The company offers a unique build-to-order model with Design Studios where buyers customize finishes, generating approximately $212,000 in upgrades per home. TOL beat guidance across nearly all metrics in its Q1, delivering $1.85 billion in revenue and growing EPS 25% year-over-year to $2.19. Management struck a tone of cautious optimism: web traffic, foot traffic, and deposits are all up modestly versus last year heading into spring, though it is early. Incentives held flat at 8% of sales price for the third straight quarter, and build costs remain stable with no tariff impact materializing. Regionally, the Boston-to-South Carolina corridor and California are outperforming, while Tampa, Atlanta, San Antonio, and the Pacific Northwest lag. Notably, visa uncertainty is creating a modest pause among immigrant homebuyers nationally. The company is targeting 8-10% community count growth backed by 75,000 controlled lots. TOL was up as much as 2% on 2/18 after beating estimates, but slid intraday to roughly 2.5% in the red…
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Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Wingstop (WING)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Wingstop’s (WING) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Wingstop (WING) is a highly franchised, asset-light restaurant chain specializing in cooked-to-order chicken wings and tenders with over a dozen bold flavors. With over 3,000 locations globally and average unit volumes of $2 million on an upfront investment of roughly $580,000, the company offers some of the strongest unit economics in the restaurant industry. Wingstop posted its first negative same-store sales in 22 years, down 3% for 2025 and 5.8% in Q4, as macro pressures weighed on lower-income consumers, particularly at lunch and snack dayparts. Despite this, the company opened a record 493 restaurants globally, grew system-wide sales 12% to over $5 billion, and increased adjusted EBITDA 15%. The AI-enabled Smart Kitchen platform is now installed across all domestic restaurants, with roughly 50% consistently hitting 10-minute ticket times, and a 10 percentage point improvement already in early 2026. A loyalty pilot showed 50% enrollment among active guests and a 7% frequency lift. Management guided 2026 comps at flat to low-single-digit growth and 15-16% unit growth. WING reported better-than-expected revenue on weaker EPS as shares climbed 10.8% on 2/18…
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Chart of the Day: What’s Going To Happen In Iran?
Bespoke Baskets Update – February 2026
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/19/26 – Earnings Season Ends With a Whimper
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“To know that we know what we know, and to know that we do not know what we do not know, that is true knowledge.” – Nicolaus Copernicus
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It looks like a sluggish start to the trading day with S&P 500 futures down about 0.25% while the Nasdaq is down closer to 0.40%. Walmart (WMT) reported earnings earlier, and the stock is down over 2.5% after giving disappointing guidance. WMT’s reaction to earnings encapsulates the entire earnings season, where stock price reactions and the overall market performance have been modestly disappointing.
Treasury yields are higher again this morning as the 10-year yield moves above 4.10% just two days after it looked like we’d be trading with a 3-handle. Crude oil prices are rising again, with WTI up over $66 as investors watch the Middle East, where a US military strike against Iran looks increasingly likely. Gold prices are basically flat, while crypto is down modestly.
In Asia, China remained closed for the Lunar New Year, but South Korean stocks surged over 3% while the Nikkei rallied 0.6% after Core Machinery Orders rose more than 19% versus forecasts for an increase of 5.1%. Europe is following the US tone rather than Asia this morning, and the STOXX 600 is down 0.6%, led lower by Italy’s decline of 1.3%.
On the economic calendar, it’s been a busy morning, with the main reports being the Philly Fed Manufacturing report, which came in better than expected (+16.3 vs +7.5), and jobless claims. Initial claims were lower than expected at 206K versus forecasts for 225K, while continuing claims were slightly higher than expected at 1.869 mln versus forecasts for 1.860 million. For the rest of the day, the only remaining reports of note are Leading Indicators and Pending Home Sales at 10 AM
With Walmart’s report this morning, Q4 earnings season is now winding down to an unofficial close. We measure earnings season performance as the five weeks starting with the Friday before the large banks start to report, which for the current earnings season works out to the period from the close on 1/9 through 2/20. As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, and with futures down this morning, it would take a decent reversal and a rally tomorrow to push the S&P 500 into the green for this earnings season.
A negative earnings season would break a streak of five straight earnings seasons during which the S&P 500 had positive returns during earnings season. Even more notable is that the last time the market declined more than 1% during an earnings season was 15 quarters ago (nearly four years) during the Q1 2022 reporting period, when the S&P 500 fell more than 13%.
At the stock level, yesterday’s big story was news that Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS), which owns the New York Knicks and New York Rangers, was considering a plan to separate the two franchises into two standalone companies. The stock rallied more than 15% in response, and deservedly so, as even after yesterday’s rally, MSGS has a market cap of less than $9 billion, and the combined value of both teams is estimated at well over $10 billion.
MSGS has been a solid performer over the last year as many investors started to anticipate this type of announcement from the company, and even before yesterday’s news, the stock was up over 42% in the last year. After yesterday’s surge, MSGS is up over 65%.
Owning sports franchises has become a popular investment strategy in recent years as their value has skyrocketed in the last couple of decades. Private equity funds have been rushing into the space, but as is usually the case for emerging investment trends, access for individual investors is tough. In the public equity space, there’s only a handful of stocks that primarily track the performance of individual sports teams or leagues.
The chart below shows the performance over the last year of five publicly traded stocks that provide exposure to individual sports franchises or an entire league. While it’s been a popular investment strategy among the limited options available to individual investors, performance over the last year has been mixed.
Even before yesterday’s surge, shares of MSGS were the top performer, and they only added to the gains yesterday. Trailing MSGS, TKO Group (TKO), which owns the UFC and WWE, was up 24%, which also handily outperformed the S&P 500. Next on the list was Manchester United (MANU), and its 16.2% only modestly outperformed the S&P 500. While three of the five stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last year, shares of Liberty – Atlanta Braves (BATRA) are up just 9.1%, while shares of Liberty Formula One (FWONA) have “crashed and burned” 10.2%. While Formula One is billed as one of the fastest-growing sports these days, its stock price has gone the other way.
Biggest S&P 500 Winners Last 5, 10, 20 Years
The S&P 500’s annualized total return over the last five years has been roughly 13.5%, but the average stock currently in the index has seen an annualized total return about 2.6 percentage points less at just 10.9%.
Just over 20% of stocks in the S&P 500 have posted annualized returns of 20%+ over the last five years, but below is a list of the 15 companies with the strongest 5-year returns. Each of these stocks has gained more than 40% annually since early 2021!
While NVIDIA (NVDA) is by far the biggest stock on the list of five-year winners and ranks second, Comfort Systems (FIX) – which installs HVAC and building systems – gets the gold with a 5-year annualized total return of 87.2%. Super Micro (SMCI) gets the bronze at 56.9%, followed by Howmet Aerospace (HWM) and EMCOR (EME). Other notables on the list of 5-year winners include Broadcom (AVGO), Arista Networks (ANET), Quanta (PWR), Seagate (STX), and General Electric (GE). While GE struggled during the first 20 years of this century, it has lit fire during the 2020s.
We also looked at returns over the last ten and twenty years to find stocks that have been the most consistent winners over lengthy time frames.
As mentioned earlier, the S&P 500 has returned 13.5% annually over the last five years. Over the last ten years, the index has returned 15.6% annually, while it has gained 10.8% annually over the last twenty years.
In the S&P right now, there are only five stocks that have doubled the index annually over the last five, ten, and twenty years. These five stocks are shown below sorted by current market cap.
Three semiconductor stocks make up the list of five (NVDA, LRCX, KLAC), while the other two are the aforementioned Comfort Systems (FIX) and an Energy stock: Texas Pacific Land (TPL).
While there are only five S&P 500 stocks that have doubled the return of the index itself over the last five, ten, and twenty years, there are ten stocks that have posted 20%+ annualized returns over all three time frames.
These ten stocks are highlighted below, once again led by NVIDIA (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA (KLAC). Additional stocks that have yet to be mentioned are Amphenol (APH), Monolithic Power (MPWR), and Axon Enterprise (AXON).
So far we have only discussed winners, but we’ll close with a list of S&P 500 stocks that have struggled mightily in the last two decades. In the index right now, there are nine stocks that have posted annualized total returns of less than 5% over each of the last five, ten, and twenty years.
Some of the more well-known names on the list include Zimmer (ZBH), Baxter (BAX), Conagra (CAG), and Campbell’s (CPB).
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