The Closer — State Growth Broad As Prices Firm — 5/11/17
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we update US GDP growth at the state level. We also discuss strong PPI data reported today.
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a free trial below to see it!
The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!
Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot — 5/11/17
We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members. Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member. If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.
Below is one of the many charts included in this week’s Sector Snapshot, which highlights our trading range screen for the S&P 500 and ten sectors. The black vertical “N” line represents each sector’s 50-day moving average, and as shown, the S&P 500 and six of ten sectors are currently above their 50-DMAs. All six of these sectors, however, moved lower within their trading range over the last week.
To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
B.I.G. Tips – It’s About Time: Equities Overtake Treasuries
Best and Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks YTD
The S&P 500 is up nearly 7% year-to-date, but the average stock in the index is up just 5.70%. This means the largest stocks in the cap-weighted index are outperforming the smallest names. Even still, two-thirds of the stocks in the S&P are up year-to-date, while 35% of stocks are up more than 10%. Seventy stocks are up more than 20%, while just 25 are up more than 30%.
Below is a list of the 30 best performing S&P 500 stocks year-to-date. As shown, Vertex Pharma (VRTX) is up the most with a gain of 55%, followed by Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Arconic (ARNC), CSX and Lam Research (LRCX). Wynn Resorts (WYNN) — a Bespoke Model Portfolio name — ranks 7th best with a gain of 40.8%, while Adobe (ADBE) — another Bespoke Model Portfolio name — ranks 18th with a gain of 31.7%. Apple (AAPL) ranks just behind ADBE at 31.68%. As the largest stock in the world with a market cap of just under $800 billion, Apple’s gain this year has been a huge contributor to the cap-weighted S&P 500. Another mega-cap Tech name that’s up more than 30% YTD is Facebook (FB). Coach (COH) may be the most surprising name on the list in the 29th spot given the pain that Retail stocks have gone through. But remember, since Coach is a retailer that has its own brand, it’s not part of our Death By Amazon (DBA) index of retailers that rely mostly on third party brands. That’s where the real pain is.
If you’re not yet a Bespoke Premium member, start a 14-day free trial to gain access to our Death By Amazon index as well as our model stock portfolios.
You can find a number of Death By Amazon index members on the list of worst performing S&P 500 stocks year-to-date, however. Remember, to be part of Bespoke’s DBA index, you have to be a retailer that relies mostly on third party brands. See if you can spot a few of them on the list of 2017’s biggest S&P 500 losers:
ETF Trends: US Sectors & Groups – 5/11/17
Gold and oil have finally popped on a trailing 5 day performance basis with gold miners and oil-related companies leading the charge on our best performers list. Brazil, South Korea, South Africa, and Russia have also popped on strong emerging markets price action. On the losing side of the slate, Spain, Biotech, banks, and “safe haven” currencies have sold off with Swiss franc and Japanese yen down notably.
Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes. If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect. Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.
See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research. Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
Chart of the Day: One Breadth Measure Fails to Keep Up
Bulls Retreat…Again
After a pretty large uptick in positive sentiment last week, individual investors reined in their horns this week, even as the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs. According to AAII’s weekly survey, bullish sentiment dropped from 38.07% down to 32.73% for the largest weekly decline since March 9th. This week’s reading also extends the streak of sub-50% readings to a record 123 straight weeks.
For full access to our market analysis that is second to none, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Institutional research platform.
While bulls retreated, bears saw only a slight uptick this week as bearish sentiment increased from 29.95% up to 30.22% keeping it below the uptrend line that was broken to the downside last week.
With little uptick in bearish sentiment, all the bulls that were shaken out this week found themselves in the neutral camp as this measure increased to 37.05% from last week’s reading of just under 32%. That’s the largest weekly increase since mid-March and the highest reading since before the election. Perhaps it was this week’s abrupt firing of FBI Director James Comey or just a general feeling of unease at record highs, but individual investors definitely took on a more cautious attitude in the last few days.
the Bespoke 50 — 5/11/17
Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago. Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” has beaten the S&P 500 by 40 percentage points. Through today, the “Bespoke 50” is up 114.3% since inception versus the S&P 500’s gain of 74.0%. Always remember, though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
To view our “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks, sign up for Bespoke Premium ($99/month) at this checkout page and get your first month free. This is a great deal!
Continuing Claims Make Another Multi Year Milestone
In addition to this week’s lower than expected print in jobless claims, continuing claims were even more impressive. In this week’s report, continuing claims came in at 1.918 million, which was not only well below the consensus expectation of 1.980 million, but it was also the lowest weekly reading in this indicator of the current economic expansion. In fact, the only other time since 1973 where continuing claims were lower was in the first week of November 1988. Someday, both initial and continuing claims will start trending higher again, but until they do, it is a bullish sign for the market and economy.
For full access to our market analysis that is second to none, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Institutional research platform.
Jobless Claims Lower Than Expected
Jobless claims came in lower than expected this week, falling from 238K down to 236K and 9K below the consensus expectation for an increase to 245K. Once again, after bouncing higher two weeks ago, jobless claims are moving back down to the lower end of their range and are within 10K of the multi-decade low of 227K. This week’s print also marked the 114th straight week where claims have been below 300K.
For full access to our market analysis that is second to none, start a 14-day free trial to our Bespoke Institutional research platform.
Looking at the four-week moving average, jobless claims ticked up slightly, rising from 243K up to 243.5K. Despite the slight increase, the four-week moving average is still within 4K of its multi-decade low.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims ticked up slightly rising from 211.3K up to 215K. For the current week of the year, that’s the lowest reading since 1973 and more than 115K below the average for the current week of the year dating back to 2000. No matter what metric you use, jobless claims were positive this week.












