ETF Trends: Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities – 6/6/17

Biotech has been the best performer in our ETF universe over the past week with gold miners, Mexico, and Japan also near the top of the heal. Precious metals and small caps have been good performers as well. Energy continues to underperform with USO, DBO, and UNG all in the top four underperformers. Base metals, steel, and a few EM names are also lagging badly.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

Apple Bites into F.A.N.G.

After a lackluster reaction to yesterday’s WWDC, shares of Apple (AAPL) are set to open modestly lower once again today.  Meanwhile, the financial media just can’t get enough of the 1,000 milestones for Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL).  Given the recent attention to AMZN and GOOGL, as well as the other F.A.N.G. stocks (Facebook and Netflix being the other two), one would think that they’d be crushing AAPL in terms of market returns lately.  In reality, though, with a 57.2% gain, AAPL has actually outperformed all but one of the F.A.N.G. stocks over the last year.  The only one with a better one year return is Netflix (NFLX), which is up 65.7%.  The other three stocks are up anywhere from a ‘paltry’ 29.7% to a gain of just under 40%.

Where the F.A.N.G. stocks continue to shine is over a two-year time frame.  During this span, AAPL is actually up less than 20%, while the four stocks that make up F.A.N.G. are all up 80%+!

The Closer — Gearing Down, Global & Domestic — 6/5/17

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we chart factory orders, composite internals of ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, Markit Services PMIs for a number of countries, Mexican data reported this morning, and US productivity stats revised for Q1 today.

Sample

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The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!

Bespokecast — Episode 12 — Marc Cohodes

RB1In our newest conversation on Bespokecast, we sit down with short seller Marc Cohodes. Marc manages his portfolio from San Francisco, and has had great success with high profile bear cases focused on frauds, fads, and failures in recent years. His investment industry experience dates to the early 1980s, and has helped him hone his process for picking out companies unlikely to succeed. Marc goes into detail on his approach, including how he thinks about finding potential shorts, timing, and risk management. He discusses with us recent successful shorts including Valeant, Concordia, and Home Capital Group, as well as another new bear case he has been building a position in Badger Daylight. You can read more about Badger at Marc’s website discussing the company. Marc is the first short seller we’ve had on Bespokecast, and we learned a ton about his approach to the market. We hope you do too!

To access Episode 11 immediately, please start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke’s research product.  If you’ve already signed up for a Bespoke free trial in the past, you can gain access by choosing a membership option at our products page.  Here’s a look at past guests if you’re interested.

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ETF Trends: International – 6/5/17

Energy-related names continue to underperform dramatically as they have since the OPEC decision. Base metals and a few emerging market names round out that list of underperformers. Strong performances over the past week among the ETF universe we track include biotech, Japan, Turkey, and Germany as well as US Treasuries.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

ISM Services Declines Slightly More Than Expected

Today’s release of the May ISM Services report showed a slightly larger than expected decline, falling from 57.5 down to 56.9 and below the consensus expectation of 57.0.  On a combined basis, accounting for each sector’s share of the overall economy, the May ISM dropped to 56.7 from 57.2.

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Commentary in this morning’s report was mixed, although definitely biased to the positive side (yellow highlights below).

The table below shows the internals of this month’s report on both a m/m and y/y basis.  On a m/m basis, just four components increased in May, while just three declined on a y/y basis.  The biggest m/m gainers this month were Employment and Backlog Orders (charts below).  In the case of Employment, it’s probably a good thing that traders hadn’t seen this report prior to last Friday’s employment report otherwise expectations for the report would have been even stronger.  For Backlog Orders, that component rose to its highest level of the recovery surpassing the previous high from the Summer of 2015. To the downside, the biggest losers this month were Export Orders (which was surprising given the dollar’s weakness), Prices Paid and New Orders (charts below).

Bespoke Brunch Reads: 6/4/17

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

Labor Markets

Stigma of Criminal Record Fades as U.S. Employers Get Desperate by Steve Matthews (Bloomberg)

As the supply of available workers declines, employers are increasingly willing to give a shot to Americans with a criminal record or the formerly incarcerated. [Link]

Wall Street’s Endangered Species: The College Jock by Justin Baer (WSJ)

A pedigree that included college athletics used to be a ticket to a job in finance, but as the industry has become increasingly quantitative other skill sets are replacing former college athletes. [Link; paywall]

Thanks for Your Job Application—Shall We Begin at the Squat Rack? by Christina Rexrode and Serene Ng (WSJ)

We’re not clear that requiring a workout as an interview venue is entirely legal, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening as fitness-oriented companies seek good fits. [Link; paywall]

Will Robots Take My Job

Pretty self-explanatory: type your job, see if the alleged rise of the machines puts you in danger. [Link]

Discovery

Has science cracked the peanut allergy? by David Crow (FT)

Clinical testing is in the final stages for drugs that could help treat peanut allergies. [Link; soft paywall]

6 reasons why scientists are so excited about gravitational waves by Brian Resnick (Vox)

You may not have felt it, but back in January a tiny ripple in space time passed through Earth on its multi-billion year journey. [Link]

Investors

Steven Cohen’s Hedge-Fund Comeback Shoots for a Record Target: $20 Billion by Rob Copeland (WSJ)

With the end of Cohen’s ban from the securities industry looming, he’s targeting a massive hedge fund launch that would be made up mostly of his own 10 figure family fortune. [Link; paywall]

An Amazon engineer is letting thousands of Twitch users play the stock market with $50,000 of his own money by Matt Weinberger (Business Insider)

In a unique experiment, it’s now possible to vote on what happens next in a modestly sized portfolio of stocks owned by a brave Amazon engineer. [Link]

College

The Disinvestment hypothesis: Don’t blame state budget cuts for rising tuition at public universities by Jason Dellsle (Brookings)

There’s lots of debate over whether increasing student subsidies increases tuition, but not much debate over whether lower per student appropriations raise it. There should be. [Link]

Fashion

The Botmakers Who Rule The Obsessive World Of Streetwear (Wired)

A fascinating dive into the exclusive world of Supreme, a brand we’d never heard of until this article, that inspires an arms race of bots used to purchase its merchandise online. [Link]

How Paul Newman’s Legendary Rolex Cosmograph Daytona Was Found—and Where It’s Going Now by Michael Clerizo (WSJ)

The story of the race car driver’s watch, passed down to his daughter’s partner and now going up for auction. [Link; paywall]

Retail

Wal-Mart employees can now deliver your online orders on their way home from work by Courtney Regan (CNBC)

Headed home for your shift? Might as well drop something off on the way. So goes the thinking from the nation’s largest retailer. [Link; auto-playing video]

Best Buy And Retail’s Long Road Back By Kevin O’Marah (Forbes)

A case study on why Best Buy has been able to flourish despite a brutal brick-and-mortar environment. [Link]

Bleecker Street’s Swerve From Luxe Shops to Vacant Stores by Steven Kurutz (NYT)

The story of New York’s most unlikely retail district, from Sex and the City fame to insane rents that make it impossible for even the strongest brands to have a profitable presence. [Link; soft paywall]

Europe

EU presses plan to bundle debt of eurozone countries by Jim Brunsden and Guy Chazan (FT)

As the Eurozone has become more friendly to integration with the departure of the UK from the EU and the election of Macron in France, an official proposal on combining debt across countries has been offered. [Link; soft paywall]

After Brexit: the UK will need to renegotiate at least 759 treaties by Paul McClean (FT)

One of the most overlooked areas of the Brexit process is the fact that the UK will no longer be a part of mutually negotiated treaties entered into as an EU member. [Link; soft paywall]

Emerging Markets

EM sovereigns: Buy defaultlessness by Gabriel Sterne (FTAV)

Changes in the composition of dollar versus local currency debt burdens in EM creates new incentives in the event of default. [Link; registration required]

Investing In Asia

Fretting over savings, Mrs Watanabe turns to bitcoin by Minami Funakoshi and Joyce Lee (Reuters)

On the exploding popularity of bitcoin as a trading vehicle in Japan, Korea, and other Asian financial markets. [Link]

‘Ghost collateral’ haunts loans across China’s debt-laden banking system by Engen Tham (Reuters)

Loans “secured” by hard assets like metals stockpiles may be held up only by collective faith. [Link]

Real Estate

The Housing Market Is Ripe for Tech Disruption by Barry Ritholtz (Blooomberg)

An outline of where tech may be able to step in and simplify the process of buying a home. [Link]

Lunch

Going Out for Lunch Is a Dying Tradition by Julie Jargon (WSJ)

As workers feel more and more urgency to be at the keyboard for the whole day, lunch at the desk has displaced sit-down mid-day meals to an increasing degree. [Link; paywall]

Have a great Sunday!

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