It was a mixed jobless claims report this week as first-time claims rose from extremely low levels and came in higher than expected.  While economists were expecting first time claims to come in at a level of 247K, the actual reading came in at 259K.  That 22K increase in weekly claims was enough to rank as the largest one-week increase since April 2014. That said, even at 259K, current levels are extremely low by historical standards with the most recent print representing the 99th straight week where claims were below 300K.

While this week saw a large increase in claims, because the number from four weeks ago was even higher, the four-week moving average actually declined to 245.5K from last week’s level of 247.5K.  That puts the four-week moving average at its lowest level since November 1973.

On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, the report was also positive as claims declined another 69.8K down to 280.5K.  For the current week of the year, that’s the lowest reading since 1969, and is more than 137K below the average of 418K for the current week of the year dating back to 2000.

With US equity markets seeing a jump to start the week, below is an updated look at our S&P 500 sector trading range charts.  The first chart below looks at the broad S&P 500.  We’ve drawn lines to represent the top and bottom of the index’s long-term uptrend channel.  As you can see, the S&P is currently slightly overbought but not overly extended at current levels.  Another 1% gain or so and it will be at the top of its channel, though.  At some point investors can expect to see some consolidation within this uptrend.  Only if we get a break below the bottom of the uptrend channel would it be a bearish signal.

We’ll quickly go through our thoughts on each sector.  Consumer Discretionary is similar to the S&P 500 in that it’s trading within a long-term uptrend channel and currently right near the top of it.  Consumer Staples looks much different.  After trending downward from mid-2016 through year-end, the sector has recently broken above the top of its downtrend.

The Energy sector broke out of a tight range after the election, but recently it has pulled back to key support as we highlight in the chart.  The Financial sector made a big leg higher following the election and is now forming a new near-term uptrend channel.  At current levels the Financial sector isn’t even overbought due to its trading range shifting upward.

Health Care has the worst looking chart of the cyclical sectors.  It managed to break above its downtrend recently, but over the last couple of weeks it has trended lower once again.  Industrials looks similar to Consumer Discretionary and the broad S&P 500 — it’s trading within a well-defined uptrend channel and is now slightly overbought.

The Materials sector has surged over the last week, which has actually pushed it above the top of its uptrend channel.  This could be the start of a new leg higher similar to the one the Financial sector experienced a couple of months ago.  Technology is breaking out to a new 52-week high as well.

The Telecom sector is basically trendless and has been for quite some time, while the Utilities sector is struggling due to higher interest rates.  Don’t expect gains for Utilities stocks unless the 10-year yield begins to drop again.

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Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC this morning to discuss markets and the Dow’s recent leg higher. To view the segment, please click on the image below.

After at least a month of flirting with 20,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally broke through the level that everyone…OK, just some people…has been watching for the last several weeks.  In honor of crossing the 20,000 threshold, the table below lists the date that the DJIA first crossed each thousand point threshold (on a closing basis) going back to 1,000 back in 1972.  We also show how many days elapsed between the first time the index crossed each level, the number of times it crossed that threshold to the upside and downside, and what percentage each successive 1,000 points represents as a percentage of the index’s level.

Looking at the table, a couple of things stand out.  First, the 64 days that elapsed between the first cross of 19,000 and 20,000 would represent the second shortest amount of time that transpired between two thousand point levels.  The only one that was shorter was the 35 days that elapsed between 10,000 and 11,000.  The 64-day sprint between 19,000 and 20,000 may sound impressive, but when you consider the fact that 1,000 points only represents 5% at 20,000 compared to 10% at 10,000, it loses a bit of its luster.  Another aspect of the current rally worth citing is that after first crossing 19K back in November, the DJIA has yet to look back and trade below that level.  The only other 1,000 point level that the DJIA crossed to the upside and never looked back from was 5,000 back in November 1995.  While 5K and 19K are levels the DJIA has yet to ever revisit, DJIA 10,000 and 11,000 were levels that the index just couldn’t shake off.  The DJIA first crossed 10K in 1999, but over the years following that first cross, it moved above and below that level 66 times.  11K was even harder to shake off.  Since first crossing that threshold in May 1999, the index has moved above and below that level on a closing basis 86 other times.

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