While they haven’t seen much of an increase in the first place, initial jobless claims fell by 11K this week, dropping down to 225K compared to the consensus forecast of 236K.  At current levels, weekly claims are just 2K higher than the cycle low of 223K that we saw on 10/13/17.  That now makes it 145 straight weeks (or nearly three years) since claims were last above 300K.  We’re simply out of adjectives to describe how amazing of a streak this is given the size of the US labor force.

With this week’s drop in weekly claims, we also saw a nice decline in the four-week moving average which fell from 241.5K down to 234.75K.  That’s just 3.5K above the cycle low of 231.25K that we saw back in the first week of November, so we could see a new low in this indicator next week if claims stay around current levels.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), jobless claims fell by 44.5K down to 281.6K.  For the current week of the year that’s more than 150K below the average of 440K since 2000 and the lowest reading for the current week of the year since 1969!

With markets heading into the home-stretch in what is usually a positive time of year for stocks, individual investors are feeling increasingly confident towards the market.  According to this week’s sentiment poll from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment increased from 36.9% up to 45%.  That’s the greatest weekly increase in three months and the fourth straight week of increased optimism.  The last time bullish sentiment increased for four straight weeks was back in early 2016, and we haven’t seen five straight weeks of increased bullish sentiment since 2012!  Given the increases in sentiment, it’s hard to believe that bulls haven’t been able to take a majority, but at least sentiment is back above average. It has now been a record 154 straight weeks since bullish sentiment last eclipsed 50%.

Bearish sentiment saw a 6.1 percentage point decline this week falling from 34.2% down to 28.1%.  That’s the lowest weekly print for bearish sentiment in just over a month, but nowhere near the lowest levels of the year.

Finally, fewer and fewer investors are sitting on the fence these days as neutral sentiment dropped to 28.1% from 34.2% last week.  That’s the lowest reading in that measure since 11/2.

It has been anything but a normal year for energy prices (and gas prices in particular) this year as the typical seasonal trends have been absent from the market.  The chart below compares a composite annual YTD percentage change of average gasoline prices going back to 2005 to the performance of prices this year.  While prices usually rise in the first half of the year, they were essentially flat in the first half of this year.  Then, towards the end of the Summer, when prices usually start to fall, this year they saw a boost from the hurricanes that ravaged Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  Beginning in mid-September, though, seasonal trends finally started to take hold, and beginning in November, gasoline prices finally started to perform in line with their seasonal pattern and have been tracking it ever since.

The table below compares the national average price of a gallon of gas to the national average at this point in prior years dating back to 2005.  At a current national average price of $2.45, prices are up 5.1% YTD, which is right between the average and median YTD change going back to 2005.  So while the road getting here was far from typical, 2017 is ending up as a pretty normal year for consumers at the pump.