Chart of the Day – Wild Rides For Netflix (NFLX)
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 7/18/24
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 7/18/24
The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 7/18/24
The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis. There were 10 changes to the list this week.
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The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results. The Bespoke 50 is updated monthly on Thursdays unless otherwise noted. Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning after publication. Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price. Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%. Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs. As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities. Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking. Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/18/24 – More Divergences
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The brave may not live forever – But the cautious do not live at all” – Richard Branson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Yesterday was another one of those days when price moved in one direction while breadth went the other way. While the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, a net number of 15 stocks in the S&P 500 finished the day higher. The scatter chart below shows the daily moves of the S&P 500 (y-axis) this year versus the net daily breadth readings (x-axis). Whenever a dot falls in any of the shaded areas, prices and breadth moved in the opposite direction, and occurrences in the darkest shaded areas indicate days when the S&P 500 finished the day up or down 0.5% and breadth moved in the opposite direction. Yesterday (red dot) was one of five days this year when the S&P 500 was down 0.5% and breadth was positive. Not only that, but it was the first time since April 2000 that the S&P 500 was down 1%+ and breadth was positive.
Yesterday was the 34th day this year that the price and direction of the S&P 500 moved in opposite directions. If it ended today, this year’s total would already rank as the seventh-highest number of days where the two moved in the opposite direction. But the year isn’t over yet, and if the current pace keeps up over the next five and a half months, the total number of divergent days for the S&P 500 would total 62, easily setting a record dating back to at least 1990.
In terms of extreme divergence days, yesterday was the 9th time that the S&P 500 rallied (or declined) at least 0.5% and breadth moved in the opposite direction. That already ranks as the fourth most occurrences for a calendar year since 1990. If this pace continues for the rest of the year, there will be 17 occurrences. That would put this year in the position of the second most of all-time, trailing only 19 occurrences in 2000.
It’s never good to find yourself in a world of comparisons to 2000, but when it comes to daily divergences between price and breadth, 2024 has a lot of similarities.
Daily Sector Snapshot — 7/17/24
Fixed Income Weekly — 7/17/24
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.
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Better Than Expected Housing Data, But…
After three straight months of weaker-than-expected reports, Wednesday’s release of Building Materials and Housing Starts bucked the recent trend coming in better than expected, joining other reports this week that have managed to exceed expectations. As shown above the table below, May’s reports were also revised higher. While the better-than-expected results were welcome, the overall levels of starts and permits remain relatively weak.
On a m/m basis, housing starts increased by 3% month/month, but all the increase was a function of multi-family units, which increased by 19.6%. Single-family units were down 2.2% and fell below the million annualized run rate. Building Permits showed a similar picture with single-family units falling 2.3% while multi-family units jumped 15.6%.
The chart below shows the 12-month average of Building Permits and Housing Starts since 2010, and both measures have now nearly erased all their post-Covid surge. While not quite at new multi-year lows, barring another big jump next month, both series will very likely be at new lows following next month’s report.
While housing starts are trending lower, housing stocks have reversed a steady downtrend in the last few trading sessions. After peaking in late March, the iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB) corrected 15% heading into the July 4th holiday, but since then the ETF has surged as investors rotated out of the mega-caps and into everything else. By yesterday’s close, ITB had erased nearly all of its Q2 decline. Stocks typically lead fundamentals, so by that logic, do homebuilder stocks know something the rest of us don’t?
BESPOKE STOCK MARKET CAMP NEXT WEEK! SIGN UP NOW!
If you or any of your friends or colleagues have children, grandchildren, nieces, or nephews, please take note!
Here at Bespoke we’ve been following the stock market 24/7 for more than two decades, so based on the “10,000 hour” rule, we can confidently say that we are market “pros”.
At the same time, traditional education across grades K-12 doesn’t focus on the stock market, investing, and how it all works.
For years, we’ve thought about addressing the “stock market literacy gap” for students across the country. Now, we’ve come up with a plan!
Starting this summer, we are now offering “Stock Market Camp” for students in grades 5-8 and 9-12!
Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp will run for five days from Monday-Friday with each live Zoom class lasting roughly 75 minutes. Camp will be fun, engaging, and interactive, and by the end of the week, students will have a basic understanding of how the stock market and investing works! If a live class is missed, a recording will be available.
We don’t have to tell you how valuable knowing this information at a young age can be! Instead of kids playing video games, scrolling through TikTok, or messing around on Snapchat, we think our five-day Stock Market Camp will pay major dividends down the road!
For now we are making our Stock Market Camp available to students that are referenced by Bespoke readers. We are running one week of camp for high school students (grades 9-12) from July 22nd-26th, and one week of camp for middle school students (grades 5-8) from August 12th-16th. Each weekly camp will be capped at 40 students max, so please sign up ASAP to reserve your student’s spot. You can purchase as many spots as you’d like or forward this email to colleagues and have them sign up.
SIGN UP YOUR STUDENT OR STUDENTS TODAY AS THE CAMPS ARE LIMITED TO JUST 40 ATTENDEES!
We will touch base after sign-up to gather the pertinent information. If you sign up and the student cannot attend during the dates listed above, we can either provide access to a full recording of the camp or a credit for a future camp. Refunds will be provided upon request if we are notified at least one week before the camp’s start date.
Please reach out if you have any questions about Bespoke’s Stock Market Camp. The camp is for informational and educational purposes only, and there will be no investment advice or recommendations provided. All discussions will be impersonal and historical in nature. There will be no forward-looking analysis or discussion.