The Closer — Mexico Data Day, PPI, Largest Deficit Since 2012 — 1/11/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review Mexican data, US PPI, and the widening US budget deficit.
See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Sector Snapshot — 1/11/18
We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members. Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member. If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium now.
Below is one of the many charts included in this week’s Sector Snapshot, which highlights the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages by sector in the S&P 500. As shown, six of eleven sectors have more than 90% of their stocks above their 50-days at the moment, which is an extremely high reading.
To see our full Sector Snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a two-week free trial to our Bespoke Premium package now. Here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive.
the Bespoke 50 — 1/11/18
Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago. Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” has beaten the S&P 500 by 66.8 percentage points. Through today, the “Bespoke 50” is up 166.4% since inception versus the S&P 500’s gain of 99.6%. Always remember, though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
To view our “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks, click the button below and start a trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
Chart of the Day: Checking In On Global Auto Sales
Back to Reality For Individual Investors
After three straight weeks where bullish sentiment topped 50% in the weekly AAII poll, it was back to reality this week. Bullish sentiment dropped in a big way this week, falling from 59.8% back to below 50% to 48.7%. That was the largest weekly decline since November. It’s hard to imagine what would have caused such a big decline this week, but as we have all seen in the last few years, this is a fickle bunch.
In this week’s survey, the bulls didn’t just move down to the neutral camp either. As shown in the chart below, bearish sentiment saw nearly the same magnitude of a move higher that bullish sentiment saw to the downside.
The Closer — China Can’t Sell, EIA Goes Swell — 1/10/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we do some mythbusting on China’s ability to influence US yields via reserve changes and discuss another new example of our Trend Analyzer tool.
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Chart of the Day: Does Overbought Equal Overdone?
Fixed Income Weekly – 1/10/18
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s note, we take a look at the move higher in interest rates, with a focus on the ten and five year notes.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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You Don’t See This Very Often
It’s been a rough week for Bitcoin and a lot of other crypto-currencies. Bitcoin is down three days in a row and 17% over this time period. What’s really amazing about the declines in Bitcoin from its high back in mid-December is that even though it’s down over 30%, the price is still 14% above its 50-day moving average. You don’t see that very often, and it just goes to show how insane the rally was from early November through December.
Even after the recent declines in crypto-currencies, there are still 23 cryptos with market values in excess of $2 billion. The table below lists each one of them along with their current value. Not included on this list are another 18 cryptos with market values above $1 billion. That includes Dogecoin, which has a market value of $1.4 bln even though it was created as a joke. The founder has even been quoted as saying, “New features aren’t being implemented into dogecoin because there’s no active development anymore…Eventually, it will become outdated.” Yet people are still paying for it.
As shown at the bottom of the table, the combined market cap of the 23 cryptos listed below is over $600 billion, while the top 100 cryptos have a combined market cap of around $700 billion. In this age where billions are seemingly thrown around like bags of rice, that may not sound like much, but with the total market cap of US equities at around $30 trillion, $700 billion represents nearly 2.5% of all US listed equities. That’s not an insignificant amount for an “asset class” that most people hadn’t even heard about before this past fall.
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 1/10/18
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
