Global Equity Markets Move from Oversold to Neutral
Our Trend Analyzer is helpful for tracking directional trend shifts for equity markets around the world. Recently, global markets have been moving pretty much in unison with each other. Below is a snapshot of regional ETFs from our Trend Analyzer tool. As shown, a week ago nearly every one of them was oversold, but as of this morning, they have all moved slightly out of oversold territory and back into the neutral zone. Note that none are back above their 50-day moving averages at this point. Until that happens, bears have control.
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Rare Spike for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
After posting a sub-220k reading last week, economists were projecting that initial jobless claims would come in at 225k this week. When the actual number was released at 8:30 AM ET today (as it is every Thursday at this time), it was a bit surprising to see a spike up to 242k — 17k higher than expected.
Below is a chart of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims going back to 2005. As shown, the long-term downtrend for claims remains intact, but this week’s spike took the reading up to the top of the downtrend channel. Given the unprecedented strength in claims over the last couple of years, any consecutive readings above 250k would be a cause for concern in our view.
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The uptick to 242k this week took the 4-week moving average for claims up to 228,250, an increase of 5k from last week.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial jobless claims came in at 200.9k. As shown below, 200.9k is the lowest print for this specific week since at least 2005, and it’s more than 100k below the average of 314k for this specific week since 2000.
the Bespoke 50 — 4/5/18
Every Thursday, Bespoke publishes its “Bespoke 50” list of top growth stocks in the Russell 3,000. Our “Bespoke 50” portfolio is made up of the 50 stocks that fit a proprietary growth screen that we created a number of years ago. Since inception in early 2012, the “Bespoke 50” has beaten the S&P 500 by 61.6 percentage points. Through today, the “Bespoke 50” is up 153.5% since inception versus the S&P 500’s gain of 91.9%. Always remember, though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
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The Closer — Volume, Oversold Bounce, Factory Sales, Energy — 4/4/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we discuss the changing volume patterns in recent weeks. We also discuss technical indicators that suggest a bounce is likely to be sustained at these levels, and review today’s manufacturers’ sales, orders, and inventories data along with EIA petroleum market information and energy price action.
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B.I.G. Tips – Policy Adjusted Valuation
Fixed Income Weekly – 4/4/18
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideals in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s note, we take a look at REITs, highlighting a name we think looks attractive given the backup in rates.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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Chart of the Day: Gaps Down of 1%+
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 4/4/18
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published weekly every Wednesday at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
The Closer — Last 90 Minutes, Brazilian Growth, Auto Sales Spike — 4/3/18
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review how predictive end-of-day trading is to longer-term returns, Brazilian economic data released today, and the strong March auto sales number.
See today’s post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!